Season 2017-2018 Week 25 Results | 10W-15L-2P | -2481€ Loss

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

Despite the heavy down reversal of the last weeks, I'm quite ok with the weekend as the negative results were mainly based on multiple unfortunate events. I much rather take these losses compared to the ones last week where it was due to my own poor live betting decisions. I have talked before on how I keep an expected profit pink line and see it as a pillow to fall on when things get too far ahead. This really helps to keep a stable mental mindset and ride the swings that come along with betting sports.

My plan to slow down a bit didn't really come through with 27 bets in 10 matches. Often times I take multiple middle / hedge positions live in a match depending on the setup. The corners in Antwerp vs Waasland match was a good example. Antwerp were the better team in the first half and were getting all the corners (5-0). When they scored the 1-0, it gave a good opportunity to bet the under 11.5 corners as they were unlikely to keep pushing like this because of the new scoreline. Things changed when Waasland scored the 1-1 just before HT which made the over favorable again so I traded out with an Over 9.5 and Over 10 CK middle. When the 10th corner hit, I fully opted out with and extra O 11.5 CK bet. This is one of the ways to get a lot of bets and good volume in without it having to increase the risk. (the match ended with 13 CK)

On one of my live bets I really felt robbed by the bookmakers as it should have never been accepted. When betting live, your bets are often pending and waiting to get accepted at a point when play is outside the 'danger zone'. Because of this you want to bet the unders or underdogs when there is an attack going and bet the favorites and overs when nothing is going on. It's really frustrating to have a bet pending and see the odds go up in the meantime. This is one of the reasons why it's very tricky to bet very late in a match. One of the live under bets I took was clearly in the danger zone while taking it, but it was accepted anyway while a goal was scored. It's the first time in years this happened to me and I really felt cheated, but there is nothing really to do about it. It did get me tilting a bit out of disbelief.