One of the trends TDV watches closely is the inevitable unraveling of markets, especially equity markets. The stock market has been weaponized by disastrously low interest rates and it is only a matter of time before catastrophe occurs.
Just a matter of months, weeks, days or hours. We’re not debating the magnitude of the catastrophe anymore, just the timing.
Of late, the markets have been looking increasingly shaky. In fact the VIX volatility index is up while many major indices are down.
Back in August, here, we mentioned Crispin Odey had begun moving massive portions of his portfolio into gold. Now, the billionaire fund manager believes that U.K. stocks may plummet up to 80% collectively as the economy faces higher inflation and a recession following Brexit.
Odey’s analysis of potential disaster agrees with our own, though he seems to believe in a logical unraveling sooner rather than later. In fact, as stated, this is the only question to ask: When do markets begin their inevitable, catastrophic slide?
It could happen as soon as tomorrow or it could take longer. It could be precipitated “naturally” or it could be triggered by the same secretive cabal that runs the world’s largest central banks. And, yes, triggers could include a Trump victory as we mentioned here.
Odey’s larger vision is persuasive. A good deal of money has been parked with him, including funds from influential elites. He is well known for receiving $150 million for his first large investment stake from George Soros. On the other hand, his main fund is down around 43% this year.
“We are now destined to have a recession in the U.K. as well as inflation,” Odey wrote in a recent letter. “It will be difficult for the stock market to remain above all of this.”
At this point, some of Odey’s investors are surely nervous about the timing of certain short positions, including some of which are proving expensive to service. Odey remains adamant that his long position in gold futures will ultimately be profitable and that he’ll be able to reward his investors with hundreds of millions.
Within the larger scheme of things, Odey’s optimism is justified. In the first bull run of the 1970s, gold moved up some 550% (1970 to 1974). Then there was a significant downward move against the dollar of some 50%.
Finally, there came gold’s famous second bull run that culminated in an incredible 900% increase in value and made many gold investors millionaires. Much of the wealth was not generated by the ascent of the physical against the dollar, but by riding a wave of increasingly valuable junior mining stocks.
The leverage provided by junior mining stocks during a significant golden bull is tremendous and can far exceed the value of the metal itself. Our senior analyst Ed Bugos understands this well and has capitalized on mining leverage in 2016. It’s one of the reasons we’ve done so well.
Odey has done well, too, long term. If you had been with him for, say, 10 years, you would have enjoyed annual gains of more than 50 percent, four times. And after all, his European Inc. fund is up around 900% since it started back in 1992. He must be doing something right.
As mentioned, the salient question is when. Odey seems ready for a huge crash right now. In such a case, the FTSE 100 likely won’t be the only major index to take a huge hit.
If you have been watching what’s happening in the US markets, particularly the S&P 500 Index, it appears to be starting to crack as well. As of today, it has been down for eight consecutive days - its longest losing streak since the Lehman Bros crisis in October 2008.
In addition, the VIX volatility index was up for the 8th day in a row, which is only the third time in history that has happened. Not to mention the NASDAQ which closed down almost 1% today plus jobless claims just reached their highest levels since the beginning of August.
The recent perceived weakness in equity markets, plus an increased prospect of a Trump presidency in light of the FBI reopening their Killary investigation, has caused gold and precious metals to rally. Gold is now sitting back above the $1,300 mark and Silver has recovered back over $18.
So we sit and wait. And like Odey, we are watching closely to see whether the obvious downward trends will sink markets now - or later. Either way, we’re prepared for the most catastrophic crash in history and a subsequent depression that will make the Great Depression pale in comparison. Throw in a world war or two while you’re at it.
It’s just a matter of timing at this point before the market collapses up to 80 percent, just as Odey expects. He knows the excesses that have been built into this system.
Please continue to check back with us regularly as we watch for further signs of the incipient collapse. If you want to take advantage of our newsletter, where we develop our analysis into actionable trends that make subscribers considerable profits, and potential fortunes on mining stocks, please sign up here.
When the big collapse hits - and it’s coming closer and closer - today’s profits will look minuscule by comparison. And it is very likely that the world and nations themselves will be paralyzed by losses. To avoid the worst and to prepare for the possibility of considerable wealth, position yourself in ways we’ve suggested and watch significant trends with us to determine when the inevitable catastrophe will strike. If Odey’s right, we don’t have long to wait ...
