Just like gold Bitcoin is used as a store of value and may even in the future be a more popular choice than gold is for this purpose. Let's make a sensible and conservative assumption that just 10% of the wealth currently stored in gold is transferred to Bitcoin.
The current gold price per Kg is: $40,574
The estimated amount of gold that has been mined from the earth is: 171,300 tonnes. That's metric tonnes (1 tonne = 1,000 Kg)
From these figures we can form an effective market cap for gold which is simply done by multiplying the total number of Kg's by the market price for 1Kg of gold.
171,000 x 1000 x 40,574
This figure comes out at: $6,938,154,000,000
That's almost $7 Trillion
Now we said that we will be conservative and assume that just 10% of this stored wealth will transfer to Bitcoin which suggests a total future market cap for Bitcoin at $693,815,400,000
So how about a price per Bitcoin? The current Bitcoin protocol states that when mining is complete in approximately the year 2140 there will be 21,000,000 Bitcoins. The current circulation of Bitcoins is approximately 16,500,00. So to get the per Bitcoin price we simply divide the market cap by the number of coins, which gives us:
$42,049.42 (Based on current circulation)
$33,038.83 (Based on all coins mined)
This is all based on today's figures which does not even take in to account: the long term rising price of gold, inflation devaluing fiat currency, growing distrust in fiat currency and finally the fact that more wealth is being produced as economies grow and develop around the world. All of the above factors would push those price estimates up even further.
In my opinion this valuation hinges on weather Bitcoin and other cryptos will stand the test of time and will be around for the long term. Though now that nations, banks and influential people are acknowledging the relevance of cryptos I think it's now more likely than not that they will survive and prosper.
Thanks for reading.
Dave.