is now such a terror in retail, it can tank a stock just by filing some paperwork.
Shares of Blue Apron (APRN) tumbled June 17 after Amazon (AMZN) filed for a trademark on a business that sounded like Blue Apron’s.
That’s not the only stock that’s been “Amazon-ed.” Back in June, Amazon tanked the shares of Costco Wholesale (COST) Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Kroger Co. (KR) when it announced plans to purchase Whole Foods Market (WFM) Wal-Mart has recovered. But Costco and Kroger lag behind the S&P 500 (SPX) this year, in part because of they got Amazon-ed.
This kind of havoc, courtesy of the online retailing giant, has inspired efforts to identify companies that might be safe from Amazon, including this column by my colleague Philip van Doorn, and this one from me.
Those pieces provided good ideas. But now it’s time to bear down and find the ultimate Amazon-proof companies.
Here’s my take. While Amazon will likely revolutionize delivery with drones, and you can buy just about anything on its site from ladybugs to Lamborghinis, one sector looks safe: railroads and the companies that supply them.
Read:The bad news on Amazon’s stock price is only beginning
Amazon will probably never get into selling the oil, coal, chemicals and agricultural commodities they schlep around the country. And if I ever ordered a 35-ton railroad car, my United Parcel Service (UPS) delivery guy would go nuts. (Don’t worry, Mike. Not gonna happen.)
All of this makes railroads and the companies that supply them look pretty safe. Here are five companies in the space that aren’t only Amazon-proof. They’re attractive for other reasons too.
American Railcar Industries (ARII)
You can buy miniature railroad cars on Amazon.com, but the online retailer will not likely ever get into the business of selling the real thing. American Railcar’s tankers and hoppers can weigh as much as 35 tons, and they are complicated to make. So we will never see an “Amazon Basics” version of the railroad car.
Rail cars often have customized features and they require expensive equipment to make, says value investor George Putnam, who likes this company’s stock because the business is in what he thinks will turn out to be a temporary downturn.
American Railcar provides follow-up services like maintenance, which would be tough for Amazon to replicate.
“Not only is the company safe from Amazon fever, it is currently in a down cycle, offering longer-term investors an opportunity to invest at an attractive entry point,” says Putnam.
You get a 4.3% dividend yield while you wait for the business to improve. If you buy this name, you’ll be in a stock alongside another investor great, besides Putnam. That’s Carl Icahn, who holds a 62% stake.
Trinity Industries (TRN)
Here’s another company that Putnam likes that sells railroad cars, including hoppers, tankers and box cars. Last year Trinity supplied 42% of the rail cars sold in North America, or 27,240 of them. Amazon is never going to cut into this business.
Trinity’s other divisions are also unlikely to get Amazon-ed. It sells river barges, guardrails, large storage tanks and construction materials like gravel and sand.
Demand for railcars and barges is currently weak. But that will change at some point. Perhaps it will happen when shipments of oil and other raw materials increase as commodity prices rise due to a weakening dollar. And railroads ship a lot of coal. So to the extent that President Trump helps revive the coal sector, as he promised in his campaign, it will help the rail sector.
CSX (CSX)
Given all the advanced robotics that Amazon.com uses in its warehouses, the company will no doubt wow us with some pretty amazing drone-delivery systems at some point. But as good as they might be, they’ll never replace the delivery provided by the nation’s railroads.
Even if Amazon founder Jeff Bezos wanted to enter this business, he’d face a tough challenge. Railroads have a natural barrier to entry. It would be nearly impossible for anyone to cobble together the land and rights of way required to build another railroad.
So CSX, which has about 21,000 miles of track in 23 states in the eastern U.S., looks Amazon-proof, even if it’s ultimately in the same business as Bezos: delivering stuff.
CSX stock looks attractive now. One of the most consistently successful insider-buy plays in my stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks, is when CEOs and other insiders are putting big money into their own turnarounds. That’s the case at CSX. CEO Hunter Harrison bought $15 million worth of stock back in April around current levels.
He plans to streamline the company by reducing the number of yards and employees, and adjusting routes to speed up traffic. Harrison has turnaround experience at several railroads, including Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)
L.B. Foster (FSTR)
Pittsburgh-based L.B. Foster is another attractive Amazon-proof play in railroads. It sells railroad track, spikes, bolts and angle bars. This business represents about 50% of sales. It also has a construction division that sells steel pilings, bridge parts and precast concrete (30% of sales). There’s also an energy-sector business that sells pipe coatings and inspection services to oil and natural gas producers (20%).
I suggested this one in my stock letter back in March, under $14. It’s now up 35%, but it still has more to go because the company just went through a restructuring to bring down costs. Now, as energy and other commodity prices improve, profits will continue to amp up too.
“With these significant restructuring actions behind us, the company is positioned to benefit from operating leverage as markets recover,” CEO Bob Bauer said in the company’s first-quarter conference call.
The company also has significant exposure to Europe, where economies are picking up.
L.B. Foster has about $30 million in deferred tax assets, which is a lot for a smallish company like this one. For context, it has never posted more than that amount in annual income in the past nine years. When the company turns profitable again, those tax write-offs will come in handy.
I’m not sure when L.B. Foster will become profitable, but I’m pretty sure Amazon.com won’t be getting in the way.
“Amazon certainly is impressive,” says Putnam, the value investor. “But, realistically, not every industry will be challenged by their profit-draining expansion. Nor will every product be sold at large discounts on Amazon.com.”
If anything makes a company exempt, it’s selling the likes of railroad cars, track, steel pilings and precast concrete — or simply running a railroad.
These companies look safe.