Very enlightening, almost scary...
Really Interesting Reading
SHOUTING AND SCREAMING INTO THE
NEXT REVOLUTION WE GO ...
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10
years - and most people don't see it coming.
Did you ever think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on paper film again??? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The
problem was that the first ones only had 10,000 pixels and it took time to
develop more definition in photos. So as with all exponential technologies,
it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and
became mainstream in only a few short years thereafter.
The above will now start happening with artificial intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture, jobs and
many other important parts of daily life.
SO
Welcome to the 4th industrial revolution or should I say welcome to the
exponential age.
Software
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't
own any properties.
Artificial intelligence
Computers will become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier
than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs because from IBM Watson
where you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within
seconds with a 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
So if you study law, stop immediately!!!
Medicine
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than
human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces
better than humans.
In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Transport
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the
public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You won't want to own a car anymore however if you do want a car then
electric cars will already start becoming mainstream by 2020.
Furthermore cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and
drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can
be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking space into parks.
Today 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will
drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies still try the evolutionary approach and just build
a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. (I spoke to a lot of
engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.)
Insurance
Insurance companies will have massive trouble - This is because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real Estate
Real estate patterns will change - Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighbourhood.
Electricity.
Electricity - This facility will become incredibly cheap and clean
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can
only see the impact now.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of
business by 2025.
Water
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he
wants, for nearly no cost.
Health
Health - The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There will be companies who will builds this type of medical device (called
the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone taking your
retina scan and will also be able to take your blood sample when you breath
into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will
have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within
10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at
home.
In China, they have already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Work
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture and food.
There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world
countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all
days on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water.
The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than
cow produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we
don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market
shortly. This will contain more protein than meat.
It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people
still reject the idea of eating insects).
Human feelings
There is already an app called "moodies" which can tell in which mood you
are.
Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if
you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling
the truth and when not.
Bitcoin
This currency will become mainstream this year and might even become the
default reserve currency.
Longevity
Right now an average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, a life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one
year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more than 100.
Education
The cheapest smartphones are already sold for 10$ in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone and that means that most
will have the same access to world class education.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to go into ask yourself, "in the future, do
you think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, you should ask yourself
how can you make this happen sooner?
THE 2 BIG CLUES
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget about the idea!
Any idea that was designed for success using 20th century thinking is doomed
for failure in the 21st century.
Why don't you bury this mail somewhere on your computer under the header "To
be opened on 1 January 2025" and on this date (if you are still around) look
back to see how much of the above has come true. You might be in for a huge
surprise and you will not be able to say "Nobody warned me that this was
going to happen". If you are not around then leave guidance to your
grandchildren to find the hidden file where they will probably have a
wonderful laugh at your expense for not listening to your own advice.