Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to push all-time highs (ATHs) by most available metrics: price, market capitalization, daily traded volume, hash rate, transactions per day, etc.
There appears to be a multifactorial convergence of fundamentals and technicals allowing for this surge to happen:
- On-ramps
Specifically Coinbase for U.S. citizens, which now allows new users to purchase bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH) or litecoin. Leading up to and even during the 2013 bubble, purchasing cryptocurrency was difficult for the average user. Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks cause a slight lag in on-ramping by limiting the total coins a new user can purchase. I expect the fuel for this rally to continue for at least another week.
- Visibility in mainstream and popular media
At this point, you cannot use any social media or news source without hearing about Bitcoin. Everyone I’ve spoken with outside of the Bitcoinosphere is aware of its existence. Although purely anecdotal, this trend suggests Bitcoin is gaining visibility.
- ICOmania
Initial coin offerings (ICOs), similar to IPOs, allow for a company or brand to tokenize its assets through crowdfunding, most of which are done on the Ethereum blockchain. The quantity and rate of new ICOs remind many traders of the dot-com bubble due to large influxes of cash for almost every project.
- An agreement on the block size debate
The ongoing block size and scalability debate was stifling innovation surrounding Bitcoin. On Monday, it was announced that Barry Silbert and Bitcoin Unlimited proponents reached an agreement to activate SegWit now and hard fork in four months. Members of the Bitcoin Core community were not involved in the discussion. Shaolinfry, the user-activated soft fork (UASF) dev, had this to say regarding the agreement. UASF nodes continue to increase, despite the agreement.
To be clear, the proposal, as far as I can see, does not activate BIP 141, but is a completely new deployment that would be incompatible with the BIP 141 deployment. I’m not sure how that can be considered “immediate” activation. - Shaolinfry
uasf_nodes_all.png
- Prices were already pushing ATHs
Trend since 2015 has been bullish with several periods of extended consolidation. Price continues to break ATHs in large part due to further bullish technicals and market structure with every pullback/correction. Whether or not current price represents a bubble or euphoria is a bit irrelevant. What is more important is to look for signs of exhaustion. One such sign of exhaustion would be a toppy chart pattern such as an M double top or growing bearish divergence on a weekly chart.
Bitcoin
A bear div would consist of a higher high in price and a lower high on RSI, a measure of momentum. This would suggest lack of strength holding up price. In the case of BTC, however, there has been a steady increase in volume since the beginning of the year.
As price continues to break ATHs almost daily, we can expect a large increase in volatility and range expansion, especially because there is no previous market structure at these levels. However, there are indicators that help determine support and resistance levels above ATH levels, the most common being Fibonacci extensions. Drawn from previous ATH to low, this would yield a target of ~$2,400.
On a low timeframe, you can see yesterday’s $200+ volatility, which quickly rallied 50 percent of the drop.
The current immediate target is the local top of $2,248.
Ethereum
Ethereum, on the other hand, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. The weekly chart is showing a decline in volume since March, with ETH/USD pushing the top limit of RSI, and the ETH/BTC pair showing bear div.
Structure currently has all the makings of an M double top. I would expect another retest of the previous consolidation level before moving higher. if Bitcoin makes a push past $2,400, however, it may drag up Ethereum with it as well.
The upside target should be between $198 and $217 according to Fibonacci extensions.