Washington D.C. – Russia blocked the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of the draft resolution on the Western Sahara on Wednesday. While the move was not entirely unexpected, the Russian delegation asked for the vote to be deferred for several more days presumably to give it time to water down the language to avoid any anti-Polisario sentiment. The United States, the drafter of the resolution, circulated it to the members of the Security Council on Monday, with the vote scheduled two days later on Wednesday.
In echoes of last year, with this extra time, Russia will undoubtedly It will attempt to ensure that the final wording of the resolution contains a paragraph or a sentence describing Morocco has also contributed to the tension that erupted in the region in recent weeks.
In my analyses earlier this month of the conflict, I predicted that Russia would try to undermine the support that Morocco enjoys in the Security Council from certain allies and posited that the draft resolution would not be adopted on April 25 because of the lack of agreement between influential members of the Security Council over the wording of the resolution. More importantly, I argued that war would not break out between Morocco and the Polisario, and stressed that Morocco’s diplomatic campaign aims drive the narrative and discussions in its favor and persuade the Security Council to take a tough stance against the Polisario.Regardless of the text of the resolution that the Security Council will vote upon tomorrow, Morocco has so far succeeded in undermining the Polisario’s attempts to deceive the international community as to its supposed eagerness to reach a mutually acceptable political solution in line with the Security Council resolutions adopted since 2007. Morocco has also succeeded in exposing the Polisario’s repeated violations of the cease-fire agreement and military agreement No. 1, as well as its attempts to change the status quo in the buffer zone and throughout the area located east of the security wall.
Morocco has also conveyed a clear message that there will be no direct negotiations to reach a final political solution to the dispute as long as Algeria is not called upon to participate actively in the negotiations as a key party to the conflict and the main supporter of the Polisario.