A little over a week from its domestic opening next Friday, Marvel and Disney’s “Black Panther” is expected to gross an estimated $150 million in its first weekend — and that assessment came before the onslaught of stellar initial reviews.
After “The Fate of the Furious,” “Black Panther” is the second most-expensive film directed by an African-American. Any Marvel film, particularly one with a sense of original content and a new take on the comic universe, is guaranteed a big opening.
“Black Panther” is poised to open better than any of the three Marvel movies in 2017 (the best performer was “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” at $146.5 million). At $150 million or better, it would be ahead of all but two openers last year: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” at $209 million, and “Beauty and the Beast” at $175 million.
At the $150 million estimate, it’s slated to slay a lot of records. The only black-directed film to open over $100 million is F. Gary Gray’s “Furious 7,” at $101 million last year. Second best is Tim Story’s “Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer” with $77 million. “Scary Movie,” directed by Keenan Ivory Wayans with $72 million, is third.
It will become the top-grossing film with a largely black lead cast, a record currently held by “Straight Outta Compton” (also directed by Gray) at $177 million adjusted. With its $28 million budget, it was a huge hit even with foreign returns that were only a quarter of domestic. “Black Panther,” of course, has a pre-marketing cost of $200 million, and will need foreign revenues.
Similar to DC Comics’ “Wonder Woman,” “Black Panther” is getting particular attention as a breakthrough studio film. Just as Warners entrusted a major franchise title to a female director and lead character, Disney and Marvel placed their bet on an African-American director and a mostly black cast that centers on African culture.
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