Spread
In a pandemic/epidemic scenario the spread of pathogens will be given paramount importance by the authorities. A globalised world has increased the chance of epidemics becoming pandemics greatly, infected individuals can catch a plane anywhere. Open borders between major land locked states such as the EU also makes transmission (the spread of disease) more likely.
Virus
How fast a pathogen spreads is mainly determined by these two factors...
Incubation Period
This is how long it takes for the pathogen to become 'active' it may take a few weeks for it to become infective. Sometimes this can be influenced by how well infected people can fight the disease.
Although the above points sound bad enough, but consider that everyone has a different incubation clock. Every time someone is infected a new clock starts, you also have the infective clock as well.
Infective Period
This is the period were pathogens are transmitted, via vectors. Vectors can be anything from dust particles to dead bodies, they carry the pathogen within or on them. A pathogen may spread by non living or living vectors. Hope that a pathogen doesn't spread by both.
Longer infective periods will result in more spread and higher death rates.
Categories
A Reminder
Three other factors also have an impact of the severity of epidemics/pandemics.
Lethality
Pathogens that secrete toxins that kills the host is going to kill more people than pathogens that weaken the host. The rate at which it reproduces also factors into this.
Visibility
Bubonic plague is well known, mostly because of the black swellings it caused. Even today many doctors would recognise it. Plagues that have few noticeable symptoms or a long incubation period are more dangerous.
Vectors
A pathogen that can spread on both non living and living vectors is a nightmare. Imagine a plague that spread via air, blood and bodies. Not nice.
Conclusion
This post should have given you some more insight into the most likely global SHTF event. More posts will follow.
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