Prometheus NBA picks 2/12/18, Pistons vs Pelicans

Welcome to my NBA picks series. Let's talk about the Pistons vs Pelicans game, by analyzing both teams recent performance and predict the score!

Pistons

After a very good start to Blake Griffin career as a Piston, winning five consecutive games, Detroit has again begun slipping, losing two in a row. They lost against the Clippers at home and against Atlanta. These are very bad loses, as both of these teams are more or less lottery teams, especially the Hawks. These two loses came on the back of two very poor shooting nights by Griffin. He went 7/19 and 7/21. This is in sharp contrast to the first games Griffin played and I believe he will recover. Also, defensively, Detroit has played very poorly, giving up 118 points to Atlanta, a team that has a below average offense. I believe that a combination of Blake Griffin shooting, defense and integrating new arrivals Jameer Nelson and James Ennis III into the rotation will make the difference tonight.

Pelicans

The Pelicans, those poor Pelicans... After losing Bogie Cousins for the next ten months or so, they traded for power forward Nikola Mirotic. He is averaging 14 points and 9 rebounds since being traded. Cousins is an elite player, he will be very hard to replace. The Pelicans have lost three of the last four games, snapping a three game losing streak in their last game, against Brooklyn, in a double overtime thriller. They surrendered a twenty point advantage at halftime, but in the end, Anthony Davis brilliance saved the day. If Davis has an off night, now with Cousins out, the Pelicans are guaranteed to get blown out.

Stats

The Pistons have an overall good defense, allowing just 103.3 points per game on average, but they have not clicked well on that front in their loses against the Clippers and The Hawks. Conversely, the Pelicans have a very strong offense, the fourth best in the league according to statistics, buuut, there is a big but coming, and that is Cousins. The impact a player like Cousins has on the floor cannot be overestimated. Ignoring their last game, looking at their three game skid, they have scored 107, 109 and 82 points. Those are very poor numbers and it will take a while for them to make the necessary adjustments to their rotation after losing Cousins.

Prediction

I believe this game will go to the home team, Detroit Pistons. I think Griffin shooting will improve, and the pieces they acquired at the trade deadline will be better integrated. The Pelicans won the previous mach-up. It was a close game, 112-109. A 5-9 point win for Detroit is the most likely outcome here in my opinion:

Point Spread, Detroit Pistons -2.5, 1 unit at 1.91 odds

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Sources

GIF source