I focus markets:

At the beginning of the session on Tuesday, the focus of the market there are no published data on Chinese trade balance, which once again did not justify expectations. Weaker than expected, was not only the overall balance, but also data on exports and imports. At the same time it should be noted that data on imports, although below forecasts, however, recorded growth.More details about the published report, see below.

But the main focus, however, is focused on the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held today. The day before the election, opinion polls gave the victory to the candidate of the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, whose popularity has contributed to an increase in the termination of the investigation on electronic correspondence. Currently, there are already first results of the polls: in the north of the state New Hampshire, in the village of Diksvill Night elections have already passed (this city is known for being the first to announce the election results, as traditionally in this city people are entitled to vote at midnight local time). Victory in Diksvill at night claimed the Hillary Clinton. However, there is one nuance: the total number of registered voters in this city is only 8 eight people. 4 of them supported Clinton, 1 - Trump. But either way, the results of voting in Diksvil at night were previously always coincided with the nationwide results.

While the focus today will continue to be focused on the elections in the United States, određenoi interest in the market will cause macroeconomic published reports, some of which will be fundamental to British statistics on industrial production (09:30 GMT) and US data reports jolts (15 : 00 GMT).

II What is talk in the market:

ECB board member and former vice president of the Bundesbank, Sabina Lautenšleger, expressed doubt as to the further reduction in rates or new forms of quantitative easing. "With great suspicion I relate to a further reduction of the rate, as well as to new MERA expansionary monetary policy - over time, the pluses of these measures are reduced, while the risks are growing," - said Lautenšleger. At the same time, she defended the current pamiboolitiku, calling the appropriate economic conditions. Earlier, the Bank of Italy said that the ECB does not consider the possibility of reducing the size of asset purchase program - or examines the issue of the extent to which it can extend into March.

Swiss National Bank is ready to intervene in the situation in the currency market to weaken the franc, if after the presidential elections in the United States significantly increase the demand for safe assets. This was stated by a member of the Board of Governors SNB, Andrea Maehler. "Uncertainty is high on the eve of presidential elections - Maehler said in an interview with broadcaster SRF, but it turned out to comment on any possible outcome of the elections in the United States and their impact on the Swiss franc and the financial markets. - But I can say that we, as in the case of a referendum in the UK ready for any outcome. If necessary, the central bank is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market. "Analysts say that Donald Trump's victory in the elections may force investors to re-activate the buying of safe assets like the Swiss franc and German government bonds.

Key US banks, including Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others are preparing for a possible rapid changes in the financial markets to the election rezultatimaSAD. The management of Morgan Stanley recommended that staff consider the question of the use of stop-los order after all the necessary items. Advisers from the Department for Asset Management pointed to prepare for conversations with clients about instability on market because of the elections. JP Morgan Bank in the night of November 9, at the time of summarizing the results, bring to the job is manager in New York to strengthen the Asian team of traders in banks in case of need to increase the volume of trading on the Asian markets in the United States to protect against risk USA. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will be after the elections held conference calls to its customers and partners, and will provide guidance for consultations a client-manager of asset management. The Goldman Sachs is also scheduled to meet the management of banks with lobbyists from Elmendorf Ryan and CGCN Group.

Data for oil services company Baker Hughes showed that on average last month was 1,620 installations drilling for oil and gas in the world compared to 1584 in September. At the same time the October to 466 lower than the figure for the same month in 2015. The number of active oil and gas drilling has increased the results of the fifth month in a row and reached the highest level since February. In the US, the number of installations increased in October by 35 and amounted to 544, in Canada and - 15, reaching 156. Both figures are the highest since February this year.In October, the share of North America accounted for 43.2% of wells operating in the councils compared to 41% in the previous month and 46.7% a year earlier. Number of drilling in October in Europe fell by 5 - 87, and the Asia-Pacific region - 8, 182 in Latin America - 6 to 183. In Africa, the number has not changed - 77, which is the lowest index since August 2011. Meanwhile, the Middle east, the number of installations has increased by 5 and reached the 391st

Conference Board report showed that the index of employment trends in the US, which is a set of labor market indicators, rose prem October results, continuing the trend from the previous month. According to the data, index tendencijezaposlenosti improved to 128.97 points from 128.29 points in September (revised from 128.51 points). On an annual basis, the index rose by 1.0 percent. Recall that the recall includes 8 indicators of the state of the labor market. On October 7 of 8 components recorded growth. "The index of employment trends is moderately increased in recent months, indicating continued strong job growth before the start of 2017. Moderation in the growth rate of the index is typical in recent months (including the development of the labor market), and does not indicate significant slowdown in the number of jobs, "- said Gad Levanon, economist at the Conference Board

British retail Consortium (BRC) said that retail sales in the UK in October increased significantly, becoming another evidence that consumption remains strong. According to the data, total retail sales in the period 2-29. October rose by 2.4%, the biggest increase since January. Comparable retail sales in the same period have risen by 1.7% per annum. Official data for September showed that the sale was good after a strong year, which helped the economy to survive the consequences of the referendum results. "From today published indicators, it is clear that, despite the inflationary pressure that gradually increases in the supply chain, retail sales are now effectively cope with the additional costs and continues to attract new customers," - said the executive director of BRC, Helen Deacon.

Customs Administration of China announced that exports from China to the dollar in October continued to fall compared to the previous year, although at a slower pace, as global demand for products from the second largest economy in the world is still slow. Exports from China in October fell by 7.3% per year, after falling 10.0% in September. Exports continued to decline eighth month in a row. According to forecasts, exports decreased only 5.7%. Imports in October declined by 1.4% per year, after falling 1.9% in September. The average forecast assumes a decline of 1.1%. The positive balance of foreign trade of China in October increased to 49.06 billion dollars from 41.99 billion a month earlier. It was expected that the excess amount to 51.70 billion dollars.

Foreign Exchange market

III The situation in the markets

Pair EUR / USD close to opening levels. Experts note that investors are increasingly inclined to take a position išlekivanja, while Wednesday is not known biudu

the results of the presidential elections. The possibility of victory Clinton, representing the Democratic Party in relation to the Republican Party candidate Donald Trump is widely accepted as a positive factor for market sentiment. If she becomes president, then investors will be able to hope for an increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve in December. According to the futures market, the probability of Fed tightening monetary policy in December was 71.5% compared with 66.8% the previous day. Meanwhile, in the case of Clinton's landslide victory, is likely to further strengthen the tendency of investors to risk. Recent opinion polls in the US indicate a stable or slight lead over Clinton Trump, who is 3-6 percentage points. According to a survey Economist / YouGov, Clinton leads ahead of his rival Trump 4%. In the survey, 45% of respondents said they would vote for Clinton, while Tramp supports 41% of potential voters. Thus Tramp reduce the gap with Clinton: previous survey showed that Democrats lead in front of the representatives of the Republican Party 5%. Strong resistance - $ 1.1204 (maximum 7 October). Significant support - $ 1.0935 (minimum 31 October).

Pair GBP / USD is consolidating in a narrow range near the opening level. Many investors are cautious in anticipation of the release of the US election results. In addition, market participants monitor the state of the economy of Great Britain, waiting for the September data on industrial production, which will be published today. According to the survey, the weakening of the pound to 30-year minimum because the probability of a sharp Brexita scenario has led to increased demand for British goods cheapened by foreign buyers. According to some signals, the British car manufacturers have stepped up production as a response to increased demand. It is expected that industrial production increased by 0.1%, after a decrease of 0.4% in August, while the production in the manufacturing industry rose by 0.4% after rising 0.2% Meanwhile, data on the balance of foreign trade in Britain, which will be announced on Wednesday, will show whether the weakening of the pound to enable reduction of the deficit by increasing exports. An important resistance - $ 1.2619 (maximum 7 October). Significant support - $ 1.2204 (minimum 1 November).

Pair AUD / USD dropped significantly, having lost the majority position won the day before. The cause of this trend to record profits before the elections in the United States, as well as the weak data on foreign trade in China. Recall, the Customs Administration of China announced that exports from China to the dollar in October continued to fall compared to the previous year, although at a slower pace, as global demand for products from the second largest economy in the world is still slow. Exports from China in October fell by 7.3% per year, after falling 10.0% in September. Exports continued to decline eighth month in a row. According to forecasts, exports decreased only 5.7%. Imports in October declined by 1.4% per year, after falling 1.9% in September. The average forecast assumes a decline of 1.1%. The positive balance of foreign trade of China in October increased to 49.06 billion dollars from 41.99 billion a month earlier. It was expected that the excess amount to 51.70 billion dollars. Strong resistance - AUD0.7707 (maximum 26 October). Significant support - AUD0.7557 (minimum 28 October).

Pair USD / JPY shows a slight decline. Attention of investors is focused on the US presidential elections, to be held today. Analysts note that the pair may rise for a short time to reach the level of Y108, if the election victory of Hillary Clinton. This pair can accelerate growth, as investors counted the corners Fed rate increase in December. However, this growth could be short-lived, as the Fed's actions will be a reminder of the fact that, a year ago, when the increased rates, stocks and oil prices have fallen. This will worsen the attitude of investors to risk. If Tramp wins, it would not be a surprise that the pair falls below Y96. According to the survey results Fox News, Clinton's advantage compared to Trump is 4 points (48% vs. 44%). This study is based on interviews via fixed and mobile phones, which include 1,410 voters who were randomly selected. In the meantime, CBS survey has shown that the Clinton in the lead with a score of 45% compared to 41% in relation to the trade. The survey was conducted among 1,753 US adults from 2 to 6 November. An important resistance - Y105.51 (maximum 28 October). Strong support - Y102.53 (minimum 3 November).

stock market

Index                      Value                        Changes

DJIA                    18259.60                    + 2.08%

S & P 500            2131.52                       + 2.22%

NASDAQ             5166.17                       + 2.37%

Nikkei                   17171.38                     -0.03%

hang Seng           22858.36                    + 0.25%

CSI 300                3367.91                      +0.34%

S & P / ASX          5257.79                     + 0.13%

The main US stock indexes ended yesterday's trading with a significant increase due to the fact that the FBI does not submit any new allegations about the candidates for US President Clinton, in the case of e-mail. Yesterday, the director of the FBI Komi said that his office sees no basis for the charges against Clinton. Recall, last week signed a continuation FBI investigation concerning e-mail the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of the USA had a negative impact on the rating of Clinton, who challenged the sale on the stock exchange. Presidential elections will be held in the US on November 8 in the two-tier system. Clinton is on the market is seen as more predictable candidate for US president, unlike the rival Republican Party, Donald Trump. Although many market analysts predict that sharp fluctuations in the market reaches zero after the publication of the election results, some of them say that a healthy economy and improvement in profits the company will continue to support actions in the longer term. Some analysts warn that investors should not have too much confidence in the election results. They added that the elections were reminiscent of the referendum in the UK, specifically to reduce the gap in the polls. According to a recent Wall Street Journal / NBC News, the leadership of the Clinton compared naTrampa is 4 points.

Asian stock indexes traded mainly in the positive area, due to increased opportunities for the candidate of the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton to win the US presidential election. According to recent polls, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 3-6 percentage points. In a poll Reuters / IPSOS Clinton is spremmo to vote 45% of voters, and for Trump - 42%. However, the growth index limits the weak statistics from China. According to data from the customs administration of the country, exports from China in October fell annually by 7.3% and imports fell by 1.4%. Analysts had expected a decline in exports of 6%, and imports - by 1.4%. Trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, operating close to zero because of the situation before the elections in the United States.Investors feel safer after the FBI decided not to invite Clinton to justice. Many believe the Clinton victory, because it will be easier for her to predict policy. Reducing the angle makes it difficult to stabilize the yen against the dollar.

Expected positive start to trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.

The market of financial instruments

At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds at the level of 1.82% (-1b.p.).

The yield of 10-year German Bunds are currently at the same level - 0.16% (+1 bp).

The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in 1.12% (0 bp).

Raw materials market

WTI crude oil futures demonstrating stable dynamics. Currently, the December futures traded at $ 44.90 per barrel (+ 0.01%). Oil prices were stable in anticipation of the publication of data on US oil inventories. It is expected that weekly data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released tomorrow, to show growth in US oil inventories. At the same time, observers will be particularly interested in the government's forecast of oil production in the US in 2017. It is likely that the Ministry of Energy forecast for this indicator will be increased again compared to forecasts of 8.6 million barrels per day in October. The increase could be up to 200,000 barrels per day. This revised forecast could put pressure on oil prices and the impact of OPEC. Negative for market sentiment influenced statistics from China which showed a drop of oil imports in October by almost 13% compared to September, due to a significant increase in exports of petroleum products. Some analysts say that oil gets support in the form of growth in purchases of risky assets in the middle of the growing confidence of observer in the Clinton victory in the presidential elections in the United States. According to the latest estimates of Reuters / Ipsos States of the Nation Project, Hillary Clinton now has a 90% chance to win.

At this time, the price of gold traded at $ 1,284.70 (+ 0.25%). Precious metal more expensive because of the expectations of the results of the presidential elections in the United States, which will begin later Tuesday. Uncertainty over the outcome of elections for a new US president takes, despite the increase in the chances of candidates from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton to win. According to recent polls, she is ahead of its rivals, republikancai Donald Trump by 3-6 percentage points. If Clinton becomes president, then investors will be able to hope for an increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve in December. According to the futures market, the probability of Fed tightening monetary policy in December amounted to 71.5% compared with 66.8% the previous day. Usually, the increase in interest rates, gold is more difficult to compete with the resources that yields interest income, such as Treasury bills.

IV Highlights of today's session I data (time GMT 0)

07:45      France                                     Trade balance

09:30     United Kingdom                    Industrial production

09:30     United Kingdom                    Production in the manufacturing industry

13:15      Canada                                     The number of new foundations

13:30     Canada                                      building permits

15:00     United Kingdom                     Assessment of changes in GDP by NIESR

15:00     USA                                           The level of vacancies and current workforce

23:30     Australia                                  The index of consumer confidence from Westpac

23:50     Japan                                        Account balance trnutnih operations