I focus markets:

At the beginning of the session on Wednesday on the markets has sharply increased instability influenced the publication of preliminary data on the results of the US presidential optionally. At the time of preparing this material, preliminary counting of votes has pointed to the leadership of the Republican candidate Donald Trump, whose chances of victory began to grow rapidly after the victory in Florida. To market the separation Trump was completely unexpected, since Hillary Clinton was the favorite prefizborne race. Publication of the results in the state of Florida has led to a sharp decline in futures on US stock markets and the US dollar, while gold suddenly gone up.

The election results in the United States will be a key theme in the markets today. Therefore, the publication of macroeconomic reports and other events have been scheduled for today, will most likely be ignored by the market. Although, with reports on the results of the American elections after the tone for the market today, bar a little can compete publication of the results of the meeting at 20:00 GMT, which is expected to reduce the discount rate from 2.00% to 1.75%.

II What is talk in the market:

Prime Minister Theresa May said that the basics of the UK economy is still very strong. At the same time, he reiterated his commitment to strengthening public finances after a report showed that Bregzit increased the country's dependence on borrowing. The Institute for Fiscal Research predicts that Britain would start to reduce their public debt to GDP at the end of the decade, due to the economic crisis, as a result of the country's release from the EU. "Fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. We have already seen that our deficit was reduced by two thirds. We are determined to continue to live within their means, - .. Theresa May said during a trip to India -. What I heard here from businessmen, clearly indicates that they see Britain as an attractive location for business and investment. in addition, they want to develop the current relations by increasing trade volume, which means more jobs and more investment in the UK. "

Only a very significant negative news forced the Fed to delay a rate increase in December, due to the improved economic data in June, said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. "Probably, it will be very important to change my assessment of the necessity to increase the rate in December," - said Evans, referring to the Fed meeting, which will be held in mid-December. "But elections in the United States create uncertainty. After the election, she continues, - said Evans. - Market volatility can be the key for further action."

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased its stake to 40 per cent of the world market in the past year compared to 38 per cent for porgnozirala two years ago, and that number rose to 41 percent in 2020, OPEC said in the review. This additional volume of 4.6 million barrels per day, which will be added at the beginning of the next decade is the result of implementing the strategy, led by Saudi Arabia, even if they are short-term financial pressures and forced OPEC to leave her. In 2020, OPEC will produce 40.6 million barrels a day, or 41 percent of world production, the organization predicts. Forecast for 2014 before the OPEC changed its strategy, has assumed production to 36 million barrels per day in 2020 and decreased to 37 per cent market share from 38 percent in 2015. Growth in the share of OPEC pad means competitors. The supply of oil to the US and Canada will be reduced by 400 thousand barrels per day from 2015 to 2020, the report said. Previously, the forecasted increase of 600 thousand barrels.

Data from Svetkog Gold Council (WGC) showed that the decline in retail and double reduction of procurement in the public sector have led to a 10 percentage reduction of global gold demand in the third quarter of 2016, despite increasing investor interest. With a 4-percentage increase in supply is provided quarterly surplus of 166.3 tons, the highest since early 2009. Retail demand for jewelry, coins and bullion has fallen by a quarter, as the increase in prices deterred consumers of the precious metal in the key markets of the physical metal in China and India.

Chinese residents have reduced purchases of gold by 22 percent due to the economic uncertainty and change in the propensity to buy, buying Indian

customers decreased by 28 percent. This led to a reduction in global demand of jewelry at the lowest levels in the third quarter for five years. However, falling prices and festival season demand can support demand in the 4th quarter. "The key physical metals market in China and India remained under pressure from high prices and reduced earning salaries in the third quarter, but it seems to be that the fourth quarter could be better," - said the expert WGC, Alister Hewitt. According to him, the price conjuncture has always been a key driver of gold purchases, and people were quick to react to the decrease in October.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter from 0.4% in the previous quarter, after rising 0.7% in the 2nd quarter and the growth of 0, 5% in the period from June to August. According to the previously presented data, industrial production in the UK in the third quarter fell by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter. "While retail sales in recent months has been positive, the industrial sector has slowed down the economic growth of the country", - says James Warren from NIESR. According to him, the NIESR expects that production in the industrial sector in the third quarter fell by 0.2%.

View current vacancies and the workforce (jolts), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that in September, the number of vacancies increased by 5,486,000. The indicator was revised up to 5.453 million from 5.443 million in August. Analysts had expected that the number of vacancies increased to 5.508 million. The level of vacancies was 3.7 percent compared to 3.6 percent in August. The number of jobs has changed a bit in the private and public sectors. The number of vacancies has also slightly changed in all sectors and regions. In addition, it was announced that the employment totaled 5.081 million to 5.268 million in August. The employment rate fell in September to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent in August. Employment has changed, not in private either in the public sector. As for sectors, employment decreased in the sector of the arts, entertainment and leisure (-63.000), and has not changed in all other sectors. As for the layoffs, the number reached 3,070 mln. compared to 3.009 million in August. The level of layoffs amounted to 2.1 percent, as in August. The number of layoffs has changed a bit in the private sector, or increase in the government sector (36,000).

China's central bank said it would support sufficient liquidity and ensure a reasonable growth of money and credit, taking measures to control the bladder and financial risks. "The central bank will keep a prudent monetary policy, using a fine-tuning in a proactive and timely manner - according to the Central Bank in its report on monetary policy in the third quarter -. When creating a neutral and appropriate monetary and financial conditions for structural reforms and supporting sufficient liquidity we must pay attention to the suppression of bubbles market funds and the prevention of economic and financial risk. the balance between stabilization and prevent the growth of bubbles in asset markets becoming increasingly challenging. "In the meantime, the central bank acknowledged that the overall debt burden of the economy continues to grow, while strengthening financial risks. "The economy is still largely based on the real estate sector and investment in infrastructure," - said the central bank.

Consumer price index in China in October accelerated to 2.1% annually, while the growth rate of the index of producers' prices was the best since December 2011, the Central Bureau of Statistics of China. The October inflation index coincided with forecasts of analysts who had expected growth in October to 2.1% from 1.9% had expected growth in September. Meanwhile, the producer price index, which in September. for the first time in five years showed an increase in October, the pace and increased by 2.1%. The change was better than the forecasts of analysts, who had expected the indicator aza only 0.8%. The reason for the rise in inflation is the increase in food prices - by 3.7% compared to the same period of 2015, prices of non-food products rose by 1.7% and services by 2.5%. In general, in the first ten months of 2016, inflation in the country stood at 2%, while the Chinese government earlier this year predicted that inflation in 2016 will be 3%.

Foreign Exchange market

III The situation in the markets

Pair EUR / USD has increased significantly, approaching the highest level of 8 September, due to the preliminary results of the elections in the United States. Before the voting, the results of many surveys have pointed to Clinton's victory, which led to an increase in risky assets, such as the American Stock Exchange and the Mexican peso. Now, it looks like Tramp water in several important countries and won 18 states and Clinton - in 11. According to recent data, has already processed 81% of the vote. Over 48% voted for Trump, and Hillary Clinton - 47%. To win, a presidential candidate must collect 270 votes from all states: Tramp has already scored 244 votes, while Clinton collected - only 215 votes. Market participants expect trading to take place unevenly due to the closure of the polls and the election results are announced. Experts point out that the Clinton victory would ensure an increase in rates in December, but it will be a victory Trump regarded as an unexpected event that may encourage the Fed to be more cautious. Therefore, the US economic course to become less predictable, given the radical ideas Trump on trade, immigration, military strategy. According to the futures market, the likelihood of tougher monetary policy the Fed in December amounted to 76.3% compared with 71.5% the previous day.Strong resistance - $ 1.1326 (maximum 8 September). Significant support - $ 1.0935 (minimum 31 October).

Pair GBP / USD has increased significantly, reaching a maximum of 4 November. The reason for this unexpected dynamics of the election results in the United States. Meanwhile, the first survey showed deep dissatisfaction with the candidates. Most voters said that they are not considered to be a sincere and reliable. More than half of voters in the country are not approved not one of them. At the same time, voters are more skeptical regarding Trump. According to most respondents, on their character can not be president. In korisr Trama declared about a third of respondents who said that the new president must ensure the changes, but against that they expect President kojiod feeling, experience and assessment. In addition, market participants monitor the state of the economy of Great Britain, waiting for data on the balance of foreign trade in the UK, which will show whether the weakening of the pound helped reduce the deficit by increasing exports. An important resistance - $ 1.2619 (maximum 7 October). Significant support - $ 1.2204 (minimum 1 in November).

Pair AUD / USD fell sharply, reaching the lowest level since October 31, which is connected with the election results in the United States. Leadership Trump is a surprise for investors, as many believed Clinton's victory. Now many people believe that if a Republican Donald Trump becomes president, it could cause uncertainty about the economic and trade policies, and to encourage the Fed to leave rates further increases, which will have a negative impact on the US dollar. If Clinton wins the election, investors will quickly switch attention to the interest rate the Fed. Little impact on current trgovsnjs had data for China, which showed that the consumer price index in October accelerated to 2.1% annually, while the growth index topic of inkjet best price from December 2011. The index of inflation in October coincided with forecasts of analysts, who expected growth in October to 2.1% from 1.9% in September. Meanwhile, the producer price index in October has accelerated the pace and increased by 2.1%. The change was better than the forecasts of analysts, who expected Larger digits for only 0.8%. In general, in the first ten months of 2016, inflation in the country amounted to 2%. Strong resistance - AUD0.7776 (maximum 8 November). Significant support - AUD0.7557 (minimum 28 October).

Pair USD / JPY fell sharply for the first time since 30 September, nearing the level of Y101.00. Attention of investors is focused on the presidential elections in the United States, whose preliminary results are disappointing, although the final result is not yet known. Fluctuations in the yen against the dollar from the receipt of the first information on the voting results are reminiscent of the dynamics caused by the shock of the British referendum. Clear victory Trump would seem to cause increased buying of the yen, but it is difficult to predict how low the dollar can fall. Meanwhile, some experts predict that after the victory of Trump on the world market will be a strong recovery. Tramp has promised to dramatically cut taxes for businesses in the US that have a positive impact on the stock indices in the US and on the economy. This is an opportunity to buy, because the capital will be returned to the United States, and foreign money will be actively chasing dividends, which are expected to inflow of US corporations, he added. While the markets do not like the current uncertainty, global investors on the stock market will eventually see great opportunities for shopping. An important resistance - Y105.51 (maximum 28 October). Strong support - Y100,74 (minimum 30 September).

 

Stock market

Index                          Value                      Changes

DJIA                         18332.74                + 0.40%

S & P 500                 2139.56                  + 0.38%

NASDAQ                 5193.49                   + 0.53%

Nikkei                      16251.54                  -5.36%

hang Seng               22171.93                  -3.22%

CSI 300                   3364.90                   -0.18%

S & P / ASX            5156.56                    -1.93% 

 

The main US stock indexes ended yesterday's trading with a modest increase due to the expected results of the presidential election. Many investors believe that they will win in the Clinton campaign to grow over the next few sessions, it will be due to uncertainty over the political deals Trump, risk assets immediately after his victory lower. Intvestitori also point out that medium and long-term impact of the conquest of victory of any of the candidates on the economy remains unclear. Some analysts warn that investors should not have too much confidence in the election results. They add that the elections are reminiscent of a referendum in the UK, specifically to reduce the gap in the polls. A slight effect on the flow of trade has an overview of vacancies and labor turnover (jolts), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that in September, the number of vacancies increased by 5,486,000. The indicator was revised up to 5.453 million from 5.443 million in August. Analysts had expected that the number of vacancies increased to 5.508 million. The level of vacancies was 3.7 percent compared to 3.6 percent in August.

Asian stock indexes traded in the red zone because of the news about the leadership of Donald Trump, according to preliminary results of voting in the presidential election in the United States. According to the latest data, calculated already 81% of the vote. Over 48% voted for Trump, and Hillary Clinton - 47%. To win, a presidential candidate must collect 270 votes from all states: Tramp has already scored 244 votes, while Clinton collected only 215 votes. Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 5.4 percent, the biggest decline since June 24. The pressure on the indices perform the election results, as well as a lot stronger yen against the dollar, which is unfavorable for Japanese manufacturers, which are export-oriented.

Expected negative start trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.

The market of financial instruments

At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds at the level of 1.80% (-5b.p.).

The yield of 10-year German Bunds are currently at the same level - 0.19% (+1 bp).

The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in 1.25% (+1 bp).

Raw materials market

WTI crude oil futures demonstrate the negative dynamics. Currently, the December futures traded at $ 44.19 per barrel (-1.76%). Oil prices have fallen because of the news about Donald Trump's leadership in several key states in the course of voting in the presidential election in the United States. Pressure on the corners with data Ameročkog Petroleum Institute (API).According to the API, US crude oil inventories rose last week by 4.4 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of only 1.3 million barrels. Later today will be published in the official statistics on inventories from the Department of Energy of the country. It is expected that for the week ended 4 November inventories rose 1.33 million barrels to 483.93 million barrels.However, observers will be particularly interested in the ministry forecasts in terms of oil production in the US for 2017. Probably the Ministry of Energy expects that this ratio will again be increased compared to forecasts of 8.6 million barrels per day in October. The increase could be up to 200,000 barrels per day. This revised forecast could put pressure on oil prices and the impact of OPEC.

At this time, the price of gold traded at $ 1,318.20 (3:34 +%). The noble metal is poakupeo more than 3 per cent due to the preliminary results of the presidential elections in the United States that brought down the US dollar exchange rate and increased demand for safe assets. The dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1.14% and traded at 96.78 dollars. Experts point out that the Clinton victory would ensure an increase in rates in December, but the victory Tramp would be considered as an unexpected event that may encourage the Fed to be more cautious. Usually, the increase in interest rates, gold is more difficult to compete with the resources that yields interest income, such as Treasury bills.

IV Highlights of today's session I data (time GMT 0)

 09:30    United Kingdom                 The total trade balance

15:00     USA                                        Commodity stocks at wholesale warehouses

15:30     USA                                        Changes in inventories of oil according to the Ministry of Energy

20:00     New Zealand                       CB decision on interest rates

20:00     New Zealand                       Accompanying RBNZ releases

21:00     New Zealand                       Press conference RBNZ

23:50     Japan                                    Orders machines and equipment, the basic value