Panorama of the market. November 10, 2016

I focus markets:

 Caution market is gradually shifting from the past elections in the United States on the other, less significant events. So, at the beginning of the session on Thursday, the foreign exchange market is the focus of the decision RBNZ to cut the discount rate from 2.00% to 1.75%. The decision was expected, so there was no big surprise. The regulator has expressed concern about the global political uncertainty, stating that further easing of monetary policy in the near future is not necessary.

 Today markets will continue to be calm after yesterday's jump in volatility. Important events have been scheduled for today. Some interest may represent a speech Fed representative James Bularda at 14:15 GMT.

II What is talk in the market:

 Victory of Donald Trump on the US presidential elections, calls into question the entrenched expectations of financial markets regarding the rapid increase in Fed rates continue to increase gradually in the coming years. Investors have favored Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton, expecting a victory to keep the status qo and ensure sound policies within the country and on the world stage. Tramp has promised to terminate or renegotiate international trade agreements, which could trigger a wave of protectionism, threatening shy recovery of the global economy.His economic program includes large tax breaks, which, in the opinion of many economists, dramatically increase the budget deficit. "This increases the likelihood that the Fed will refrain from action in December," - said Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, referring to Trump's victory.The success of the Republicans also raises doubts in the future Janet Iellen, Governor of the Federal Reserve. Tramp accused the regulator to maintain low interest rates to support President Barack Obama hinted that may be removed Jelen after the expiry of its mandate in January 2018, forcing analysts to talk about her possible resignation before then.

 The international rating agency S & P Global Ratings (S & P) confirmed the long-term sovereign credit rating at the level "AA +" with a stable outlook after the recent presidential elections in the country. At the same time, S & P confirmed the short-term sovereign credit rating of the United States at the level of "A-1 +". "We confirm the sovereign rating of the United States, which reflects that we expect a smooth transition of power, which is the hallmark of American democracy. We believe that the strength of will of the political institutions that lasts a long time in the country and a healthy system of checks and balances in the US to support the implementation of the policy administration Tramp despite the fact that the newly elected president has no experience in the civil service, increasing uncertainty regarding its proposal of political "- said in a statement S & P. "Stable forecast indicates that if the positive and negative factors affecting the rating to be balanced in the next two years," - also said the agency. The Agency believes that the real GDP growth in 2016 will be 1.5% in 2017 - 2.4%, in 2018 - 2.3% and in 2019 - 2.2%.

 Victory of Donald Trump's presidential election in the US in the short term will have no impact on the sovereign rating of the country ( "AA", the forecast is stable), but in the medium term, but his presidency will be negative for the sovereign credit rating of the country. It is said the international rating agency Fitch. "The financial impact Trump will be negative for the sovereign credit rating of the United States in the medium term, because the decline in tax revenue alone will not be able to compensate for the decrease in revenues," - said the agency. In addition, Fitch points out that there is uncertainty in the details of the Trump program, "to what extent will strive to achieve, and its ability to be implemented." "The latter will depend on the degree of cooperation with the President of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and the possibility of Democrats in the Senate to interfere with the proposed measures," - said the agency.

 Administration of the US Energy Information (EIA) has improved the forecast of oil production in the country in 2016-2017. According to EIA, oil production in the US will fall by 580,000 barrels to 8.84 million barrels in 2016. In October, the EIA predicts decline at the annual level of 690,000 barrels per day. 2017 oil production will decline by 110,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels. October EIA forecast assumes a decline of 140,000 barrels per day. According to the head of EIA, Adama Seminskog, management expects a sharp decline in production in some parts of the country. EIA also raised its forecast for oil demand in the United States in 2016 to 110,000 barrels a day from 70,000 barrels per day. In 2017, according to EIA estimates, the demand for oil in the US will increase by 260,000 bpd from the previous forecast of 230,000 bpd.

 The US Department of Energy announced that crude inventories rose more than expected, but they reduce inventories of gasoline and distillates. According to the report, during the week 29 October to 4 November, oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels to 485 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of only 1.33 million barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal rose by 28,000 barrels to 58.5 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell 2.8 million barrels to 221 million barrels. Analysts had predicted a decline of 600,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 148.6 million barrels. The result coincided with forecasts of analysts.Utilization of the processing capacity was increased by 1.9% to 87.1%. Analysts had expected an increase of only 0.5%. Meanwhile, oil production in the US rose to 8.692 million barrels a day compared to 8.522 million barrels per day last week.

 Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its official interest rate by 25 bp to 2.0% to 1.75%. The decision of the central bank was in line with expectations. However, Graeme Wheeler, RBNZ Governor announced that the reduction might be the last. He also pointed out that the increase in risk in the global economy could change this forecast. "Political uncertainty remains elevated, as well as the instability of the market", - said Wheeler. - There is still a lot of uncertainty, especially regarding the international situation, a policy can be accordingly adjusted. "Wheeler said that the decision to reduce rates was adopted in light of election results in the US, but that decision was correct. According to Wheeler, the biggest risk factors for the economic views of the Tramp, Brexit and China.

 The yuan against the dollar has declined by 0.2% and stood at 6.7907 yuan to the dollar, the lowest level of the Chinese currency since September 2010. Annual depreciation of the yuan against the dollar, so more is 4.4%. "Juan can be under a lot of pressure because Tramp wins. There is speculation that he can implement measures that will hit after the Chinese exports, and will contribute to an increase in US interest rates," - noted Nathan Chow, an economist at DBS Group Holdings. "Tramp is clearly expressed position on relations with China, and it is certainly not frednly rally of US-China trade relations", - said the expert of the National Bank of Australia, Kristi Tan. Earlier, the newly elected President of the United States Donald Trump in the program for the first 100 days of its mandate threatened to declare China currency manipulator. In addition, Trump has repeatedly promised to raise the retail prices of products from China - up to 45% of the value of the goods.

Foreign Exchange market

III The situation in the markets

 Pair EUR / USD traded with a slight growth, correcting after sharp falls the previous day.However, the pair will be difficult to grow due to the strengthening of the dollar relative to most currencies after the victory of Donald Trump. Investors also began to harass political instability in the euro area before the series of events. Specifically, the referendum in Italy scheduled for December 4 could destabilize markets. In general, market participants expect that in the near trafficking that occur unevenly because of the closing of the polls and the election results are announced. Experts point out that the Clinton victory would ensure an increase in rates in December, but it will be a victory Trump regarded as an unexpected event that may encourage the Fed to be more cautious. This is due to the fact that the economic course of the United States to become less predictable, given the radical ideas Trump on trade, immigration, military strategy. Minneapolis Fed President Kaskara said that the central bank will assess over time the impact of Trump as president on the economy. "We will wait and see what will decide to do Congress and the executive branch. Fed are dedicated to fulfilling its mandate to ensure price stability and maximum employment." - Said Kaskara. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Federal Reserve Williams noted that there is still a sense a gradual increase in rates. "After the election, the Fed still trying to understand how the policy will affect the economy, however, fiscal policy is the only one of the factors on the list that affects the US economy. After the election, I have not changed their views on the implementation of monetary policy." - Said Williams.According to the futures market, the likelihood of tougher monetary policy the Fed in December amounted to 71.5% compared with 76.3% the previous day. Strong resistance - $ 1.1046 (MA (200) to H1). Significant support - $ 1.0846 (minimum 25 October).

Pair GBP / USD is consolidating near the levels of the opening session, as investors will continue to analyze the results of the elections in the United States and their possible consequences. Recent polls have shown deep dissatisfaction with both candidates. More than half of voters in the country did not approve of any of them. At the same time, voters are more skeptical regarding Trump. According to most respondents, on their character can not be president. In favor of the Tramp declared about a third of respondents who said that the new president must ensure the changes, but against that they expect President kojiod feeling, experience and assessment. A slight impact on the pound had data on the housing market in the UK. RICS report showed that house prices rose in October after the recession, which began immediately after the referendum. Indicator price in October was 23 compared to 18 in September. The higher value indicates that a growing number of real estate brokers reported price increases compared with those who reported a fall. Demand for residential property is increased for the second month in a row in October, which is supported prices. However, a key factor in the price rise continues to be a shortage of property for sale, communicated to the RICS, economists closely monitor the prices of housing as a potential indicator of the overall health of the world's fifth-largest economy. During the last three decades of households in the UK have reduced the cost every time house prices are falling. An important resistance - $ 1.2619 (maximum 7 October). Significant support - $ 1.2204 (minimum 1 November).

Pair AUD / USD shows moderate growth, as investors try to cheer up a positive way after the election results in the United States, which hardly anyone expected. At the same time, strengthening raw material prices continue to greatly complicates the aggressive selling of the Australian currency. Recall that on Wednesday the price of iron ore rose 4.7%, and the highest since the beginning of last year. Spot price of iron ore increased by 3.20 dollars to 71 dollars.Certain impact they had had the Australian data, which showed that the number of home loans granted in Australia in September, with corrections amounted to 1.6% compared to August.Economists had expected a decline of 2.0%. The volume of approved housing loans in September rose by 4.6% compared to August. This means that it will lower interest rates again to provide some support to the housing market. A separate report showed that the consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in October, compared with 3.7% in September. This indicator reflects the expectations of consumers in terms of future inflation for the next 12 months. What expectations increase, will produce a significant effect on the likelihood of RBA rate increase.Strong resistance - AUD0.7776 (maximum 8 November). Significant support - AUD0.7557 (minimum 28 October).

Pair USD / JPY fell moderately, withdrawal from the 15-month high. Now, many investors are focusing more on the difference between the yields in the US and Japan. On Wednesday, after the results became known in the presidential elections in the US, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds for the first eight months rose above 2%, as investors bet on an increase in budget expenditure Administration Donald Trump. To - inflationary access to debt growth, which should grow the profitability of government bonds. Of course, supports the pair USD / JPI.However, experts doubt the stability of high government yields, the growth of the stock market and the dollar, taking into account possible concerns about increasing the US budget deficit. The dollar can save energy by Trump's inauguration in January, but so far it has not entered into an upward trend. While Treasury gives back to the level from the beginning of this year, the pair USD / JPI traded about 105, or far below 120, which is trading at the time. Despite the fact that no one likes the current market uncertainty, global investors on the stock market will eventually see great opportunities for shopping. Important resistance - I106.00 (psychological level). Strong support - I101.18 (at least 9 November).

Stock market:

 The main US stock indexes ended yesterday's trading with the increase and recovering from all losses incurred immediately after the first election results in the United States, who reported the victory of Donald Trump. For markets Tramp victory was completely unexpected, since during the race considered the favorite, Hillary Clinton, which was seen as a predictable candidate.Tramp position in terms of foreign policy, trade and immigration, on the contrary, a source of concern for the market. Analysts emphasize the political uncertainty that prospects for the Trump presidency. "Investors do not know what he can do. Put his political measures is unclear, but his mood is unstable," - said the expert BMO Private Bank, Jack Eblin. He said the Tramp wins to pull the US stock market decline of 10% over the next ten sessions. In the opinion of a senior analyst at Commonwealth, Ezinera Omar, the main blow will suffer emerging markets.Eziner explained that from emerging markets most vulnerable Mexican. After winning Trump, known for its tough rhetoric in connection with Mexico, the peso fell against the dollar by more than 8%. However, in his victory speech Tramp has promised to improve the state of the American economy and seek dialogue and partnership with other countries.

 Asian stock indexes traded in the green zone. Japanese Nikkei 225 index added more than 1,000 points and reached 17,344.42 points, as the market has revised the economic consequences of a shock to the US presidential elections and won victories Republican Donald Trump. In addition, investors in Tokyo have responded positively to statements about Trump's desire to strengthen relations with Japan. Podsetimp. the last time the index rose by more than 1,000 points in one trading for more than nine months ago, in February 2016. The sharp increase in the indicators of the Japanese stock market can be seen only after the fall of the news about the victory of Republican Trump on the US elections. "Markets seem to change the view of the economic prospects with the Trump expecting higher economic growth and inflation," - said economist at Westpac, Imre Shpaitser.

Expected positive start to trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.

The market of financial instruments

At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds at the level of 2.01% (-5b.p.).

The yield of 10-year German Bunds are currently at the same level - 0.23% (+5 bp).

The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in the area of 1.26% (+ 4b.p.).

Raw materials market:

 WTI crude oil futures demonstrate positive dynamics. Currently, the December futures traded at $ 45.50 per barrel (+ 0.51%). Oil prices rise as investors win because of the results of the presidential elections, as well as data on the US Department of Energy on oil derivatives.Yesterday, the US Department of Energy announced that crude inventories rose more than expected, but reduce inventories of gasoline and distillates. According to the report, during the week 29 October to 4 November, oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels to 485 million barrels.Analysts had expected an increase of only 1.33 million barrels. Oil reserves in Cushing terminal rose by 28,000 barrels to 58.5 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell 2.8 million barrels to 221 million barrels. Analysts had predicted a decline of 600,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 148.6 million barrels. The result coincided with forecasts of analysts.Utilization of the processing capacity was increased by 1.9% to 87.1%. Analysts had expected an increase of only 0.5%. Meanwhile, oil production in the US rose to 8.692 million barrels a day compared to 8.522 million barrels per day last week.

 At this time, the price of gold traded at $ 1,287.10 (+ 0.73%). Precious metal more expensive, continuing the trend from the previous trading session, challenged Trampov victory in the presidential elections in the United States. The election results in the US contributed to the increase in demand on the world market for safer assets, including gold. Analysts say a victory Trump also questions can raise the basic interest rate of the Federal Reserve in December. The delay in raising interest rates is generally positive for gold prices, which do not bring guaranteed income and worse compete with other instruments in increasing borrowing costs. According to the futures market, the likelihood of tougher monetary policy the Fed in December amounted to 71.5% compared with 76.3% the previous day.

IV Highlights of today's session I data (time GMT 0)