Panoramas of the market, November 29. 2016
I focus markets:
The dollar does not hurry to take their positions. Due to the great opportunities Fed tightening monetary policy at a meeting in December, jumping dollars are small and of short duration. Currently, the federal funds futures assess the likelihood of Fed rate increase to 93.5% in the following month. The upcoming events that may have a significant impact on expectations for further Fed action, but at the same time the dynamics of the market, in general. And the dollar in particular, the data on the US labor market, which will be published later this week.
The focus of market participants remains a meeting of OPEC.Scheduled for tomorrow, which will be held in Vienna. Yesterday the belief in it that OPEC members will be able to reach an agreement on the limitation of production slightly increased, putting pressure on both oil angles. Countries OPEC had previously agreed to freeze the production level of 32.5 million barrels per day, at an informal meeting in September, a final agreement will be signed tomorrow in Vienna.
The main event is scheduled for Tuesday will be the publication of revised data on US GDP at 12:30 GMT, as well as data on US consumer confidence, which will be released at 15:00 GMT.
II What is talk in the market:
ECB President Mario Draft reiterated his call to the authorities to implement reforms to improve economic growth in the euro zone. According to Draft, it would make monetary policy more effective. Dear has once again urged European politicians to implement reforms to promote economic growth and improve the efficiency of monetary policy stimulus. Dear said that in 2016 “the euro zone economy proved its stability, despite the uncertainty of the economic and political situation.” “Inflation is gradually accelerated, and stimulation by the ECB has been a key element in the current economic recovery,” - he said. “If the government of the euro zone has adopted drastic measures, monetary policy in the monetary union would be more effective,” - said Dear. “The low rate of growth in productivity, long-standing problems in the banking sector and the limited progress in implementing structural reforms - these are problems that must be solved quickly,” - said the President of the ECB.
UK economic growth is likely to slow next year, as a result of inflation on household consumption. This was stated by a member of the monetary policy of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlige. He also pointed out that although the dynamics of the economy, since the Kingdom voted to withdraw the country from the EU, better than expected, "slowing" of the economy still looks unlikely. He expects GDP growth of about 1.5% in 2017 because inflation has a negative impact on household consumption and the uncertainty regarding the future of Great Britain after Brexita puts pressure on investment. Vlige said that household consumption and investment firms more resilient than expected, but the signals received by the financial markets shows that investor sentiment about prospects for the UK remains bleak. Vlige added that the current monetary policy of the Bank of England is "meaningful."
German President Joachim Gauck said in an interview with German newspaper recommended pause in the process of integration of the countries in the EU and to consider further actions in Germany. "In principle, we should think about the break, during which we will discuss what goal we want to achieve, and at what pace," - said Gauck. The President called on politicians not only to "advocate for a united Europe based on peace, freedom, security and democracy, but also the feeling of staying in their home and belonging that house." "We have developed a great concept of cooperation with the European Union, a peace project, which previous generations could not even dream" - said the President of the Federal Republic of Germany. But Gauck added that on the road towards EU, "we sometimes we are so quick that all citizens fail to follow us or do not want to do that."
China has enough foreign exchange reserves, and the yuan remains strong relative to other currencies, according to the National Bank of China establishes the exchange rate, said Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, I. Gan. He also pointed out that the middle of this year, due to the release of the UK from the EU and significant changes in the exchange rates of major currencies, the yuan stable working, and in the future will have all the conditions to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate on a rational and balanced level. According to I. Ghana, the volume of China's foreign exchange reserves approaching 30-centage assessment of global indicators.Despite a slight decline in foreign exchange reserves, China is still in first place in the world, and that is sufficient, according to the Bank of China.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg, increased forecasts for the benefit of the growth of the Chinese economy in the current quarter to 6.7 percent from 6.6 percent last month. This is above the government's target for 2016, which is set at 6.5 percent. It is assumed that the export decline; Delivery will fall by 4.4 percent this quarter, compared with a fall of 1 percent in the last month. Economists have also reduced the growth estimate for retail sales to 10.2 percent from the annual accounts of 10.4 percent. In addition, experts believe that China's central bank probably will not reduce the standard of required reserves for large banks this year, and resigning them to 17 per cent. The producer price index by the end of the year will increase by 1.8 percent compared with the previous year, according to the results of a Bloomberg survey.
People's Bank of China on Tuesday, the second day in a row, strengthen the yuan against the dollar by 0.22%, after the Chinese currency in mid-November, renewed a minimum of 2008, the data controller. On Tuesday, the Chinese central bank set the medium exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar at around 6.8889, which is 153 points below the fixation on Monday, when the exchange rate was 6.9042. On Monday, the Central Bank to strengthen the yuan against the dollar by 0.18%. Since mid-November the yuan against the US dollar several times updated historical lows since 2008.
The Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced that the consumption of households fell again in October, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline. According to the data, costs were reduced by 0.4% in October, annually. The indicator is adjusted to changes in price. In September, the costs are reduced by 2.1%. Economists had expected a decline of 0.6% per annum. Published data have shown once again how the reluctance of households to spend money continues to disrupt Abe four attempts to put an end to deflation. Economists attributed the weakness of household consumption too slow wage growth and consumer pessimism about the future. Recall, the consumption is 60% of the gross domestic product of Japan. Meanwhile, a separate report to the Ministry of Labor showed that the unemployment rate in October remained at about 3.0%. The ratio of vacancies to the job seekers rose to 1.40 from 1.38. This means that for every 100 job seekers have 140 jobs.
Foreign Exchange market
III The situation in the markets
Pair EUR / USD trading near opening levels, waiting for new catalysts. In addition, investors are still cautious ahead of the events planned for this week and data - on Wednesday will be announced the results of a meeting of OPEC on Friday will be published data on employment in the US, and on Sunday's referendum in Italy. Today investors' attention will be focused on the research results of European consumers and businesses. Economists expect the data to show that the mood in business circles in the euro zone more optimistic in November than in October, while consumer confidence has also increased. Later Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce will publish a second assessment of growth of real GDP in the third quarter. According to forecasts, the indicator stood at 3%. In the first quarter of 2016. GDP growth on an annual basis amounted to 0.8% in the second quarter - 1.4%. According to the first estimate of growth of US GDP in the third quarter amounted to 2.9% per annum. In addition, the company will release US consumer confidence index of the Conference Board. Experts believe that in November, the indicator rose to 101.2 points from 98.6 points in October,. Such forecasts give significant support to the US currency, and contribute to strengthening. Strong resistance - $ 1.0817 (a maximum of 15 November). Significant support - $ 1.0517 (minimum 24 November).
Pair GBP / USD fell slightly at the beginning of the session, and then returned to the level of the opening, which is connected with a partial recording earnings and expectations of the publication of statistical data for the United Kingdom. Today the Bank of England to publish the October data for mortgage loans, which will be carefully analyzed in the light of Brexit. The number of approved mortgage loans in August fell to the lowest level of two years, but since then the market has recovered. In addition, investors will wait for the publication of Index of consumer confidence from GfK, which will be released on Wednesday. After a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, the index showed the biggest drop in the last two decades. However, consumer confidence is restored, and, according to analysts' expectations, the November index will remain at the same level as in October. On Thursday, market participants follow the PMI index for the manufacturing sector in the hope that it will clarify the picture about the consequences Brexit. Also Thursday, the Bank of England will publish a report on the results of financial stability and stress test. An important resistance - $ 1.2673 (maximum 11 November). Significant support - $ 1.2301 (minimu).
Pair AUD / USD shows a slight decline. Experts point out that the pressure on the pair had a weakening of commodity prices, including iron ore. During the last session, the Australian dollar has strengthened, but today as investors reacted to the weakening of the price of steel, coal and base metals recording profits. In addition, published data were weak. According to ANZ-Roy Morgan, the index of consumer sentiment in Australia in the week ending Monday, the reduced 0.1% due to the increase fears of some households on their financial situation. "Trust household in Australia has dropped from the maximum seen in August. This probably reflects the concerns of consumers due to the recent loss of pulses in the labor market, where employment growth slowing and wage growth continues, a constant, low." - Felicity Emmett said. Strong resistance - AUD0.7579 (maximum of 15 November). Significant support - AUD0.7310 (minimum 21 November).
Pair USD / JPY traded almost unchanged, since most market participants took the position of waiting, on the eve of great events, which are expected later this week. Some influence on the pair had data for Japan. The Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced that household consumption fell again in October, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline. According to the data, costs were reduced by 0.4% in October on an annual basis. The indicator is adjusted for price changes. In September the costs decreased by 2.1%. Economists had expected a decline of 0.6% per annum. Published data have shown once again how the reluctance of households to spend money continues to disrupt Abe four attempts to put an end to deflation. Economists attributed the weakness of household consumption too slow wage growth and consumer pessimism about the future. Recall, the consumption is 60% of the gross domestic product of Japan. Meanwhile, a separate report to the Ministry of Labor showed that the unemployment rate in October remained at about 3.0%. The ratio of vacancies to the job seekers rose to 1.40 from 1.38. This means that for every 100 job seekers have 140 jobs. However, the pair gives support investor confidence in the fact that the Fed will raise interest rates at its meeting in December.Higher borrowing costs will support the dollar, which makes it attractive for investors. An important resistance - Y114.13 (maximum 15 November). Strong support - Y108.54 (minimum 17 November).
stock market
index Value Changes
DJIA 19097.90 -0.28%
S & P 500 2201.72 -0.53%
NASDAQ 5368.81 -0.56%
Nikkei1 8307.04 -0.27%
hang Seng 22777.31 -0.23%
CSI 300 3570.65 +1.01%
S & P / ASX 5457.50 -0.13%
The main US stock indexesended yesterday's trading in the red zone, due to the decline of stocks in the financial sector and the sector conglomerate. Effect of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections in the United States has lost its influence in global financial markets and investors' attention gradually shifts to the key risk events, including a meeting of OPEC is scheduled for 30 November, the constitutional referendum in Italy scheduled for December 4.Some influence on the course of trading had a report of the National Federation of Retailers (National Retail Federation, NRF), the United States, which showed that the number of Americans who participated in the sale of "Black Friday" increased compared to last year, but the average price reduced by about $ 10 per person. According to estimates by NRF last Friday's discounts and special offers benefited 154 million people in the US compared to 151 million in 2015, while the average amount spent on purchases, reduced to $ 289 to $ 300th Approximately $ 214 of that amount was spent on gifts. Approximately 108 million Americans have done their shopping in internet-shops, 5 million more than last year, while the number of visitors to conventional stores decreased by 3 million to 99 million. It is noted that these are not mutually exclusive.
Asian stock indexestraded mixed in the middle of the expectations of the outcome of the upcoming meeting of OPEC in Vienna on 30 November, which may decide the issue of limiting the level of oil production. Ahead of a meeting of the cartel investors do not want to take significant steps in the market, and adhere to the position of waiting. This has a negative impact on the flow of trade in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, in this context, market participants have ignored Statistics of Japan, published earlier today, the labor market in the country. The Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced that the consumption of households fell again in October, marking an eighth consecutive decline. According to the data, costs were reduced by 0.4% in October on an annual basis. The indicator is adjusted for price changes. In September the costs decreased by 2.1%. Economists had expected a decline of 0.6% per annum.Meanwhile, a report from the Ministry of Labor showed that the unemployment rate in October remained at about 3.0%. The ratio of job vacancies and job seekers increased by 1.40 and 1.38.This means that for every 100 job seekers have 140 jobs.
Expected negative start trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.
The market of financial instruments
At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds at the level of 2.31% (0b.p.).
The yield of 10-year German Bunds are currently at the same level - 0.19% (0 bp).
The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in 1.39% (0 bp).
Raw materials market:
WTI crude oil futures demonstrate the negative dynamics. Currently, the January futures traded at $ 46.59 per barrel (-1.04%). Oil prices are falling, because the market there is still uncertainty about the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, where the organization can definitely resolve the issue of restrictions on its oil production. Recall that in late September, the cartel at an informal meeting in Algiers agreed to limit production in the range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels of oil per day, or on specific limits for each of the countries of the organization there is no agreement. On Monday, according to the results concluded at a meeting of OPEC, the Technical Commission approved proposals for the meeting on 30 November. However, differences among Member States on the implementation of the cartel agreements remain.
At this time, the price of gold traded at $ 1,192.20 (-0.14%). Precious metal becomes cheaper due to the weak growth of the US currency due to expectations of important macroeconomic data for the US, which will be published later. Pressure on the corners also performs a high probability of increasing the rate Fed. Currently, data, CME Group, the market estimate the probability of growth in December at 93.5%. Recall, gold usually cheaper when interest rates rise, because it yields interest income and becomes in this case less popular compared to the funds, which bring income.
IV Highlights of today's session I data (time GMT 0)
09:30 United Kingdom Approved request for mortgage loans
09:30 United Kingdom Change the volume of consumer lending
09:30 United Kingdom The volume of net lending to private individuals
10:00 Eurozone The indicator of consumer confidence
10:00 Eurozone The index of sentiment in the business circles
10:00 Eurozone The index of business optimism in the industry
10:00 Eurozone The index of sentiment in the economy
13:00 Germany Consumer Price Index
13:30 Canada The balance of the balance of payments
13:30 USA Price Deflator, the basic value
13:30 USA GDP (revised data)
14:00 USA Housing price index S & P / Case-Shiller
15:00 USA The indicator of consumer confidence
21:45 New Zealand Permits for construction
23:50 Japan Industrial production
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