Panorama market. December 13, 2016

I focus markets:

Published Australian and Chinese data had no significant impact on the market. Australian statistics are mixed, and the Chinese data exceeded expectations. But now the focus of the market is the FOMC meeting which starts today. Its results will be published tomorrow. This will be the last meeting of the US central bank this year and will be extended, that is, will be accompanied by the publication of updated macroeconomic forecast and the press conference of the Governor of the regulator. Currently, the tightening of monetary policy at the December meeting, the Fed almost entirely included in the price. Therefore, at the December meeting will be important only to increase the rate, but the Fed's forecasts about future plans, as well as Janet Yellen comments on this issue.

The economic calendar for today is quite full of data, of which the main (09:30 GMT), euro after data index ZEWbiti British statistics on inflation (10:00 GMT), as well as the report of the Bank of Japan's Tankan (23:50 GMT).

II About what it says on the market:

The European Central Bank was right last week when it expanded its program of quantitative easing to nine months, but reduced the monthly asset purchases of April. This is said most European traders surveyed by Reuters. Recall, ECB President Mario Draghi announced on 8 December that the current program of buying assets, which should be completed in March 2017, will continue until the end of next year, and in April will monthly volume purchases amount to 60 billion euros compared to 80 billion currently. 13 of the 16 retailers who responded to an additional question, they said that the ECB has made the right decision. Special surveys Reuters, conducted on the eve of the meeting of the ECB, showed that the ECB will extend its QE program for another six months. But only 14 of 54 economists correctly predicted the amount of monthly purchases of property after March 2017.

A representative of the European Central Bank Benoit Kere said that the central bank last week decided to reduce the monthly bond purchases due to the fact that deflationary risks in the euro zone have largely vanished."Deflationary risks are largely disappeared, so that further stimulation is not necessary", - he said. Last week, the ECB announced the expansion of bond purchases for nine months, until the end of next year, but has reduced the volume of purchases by 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros last week. "This decision will make it possible to determine the exact amount of subsidies, which will return the inflation rate to 2%", - said Kere. Kere is also observed that stimulation, carried out by the ECB, clearly supports investment companies. "The leadership of the ECB never considered" throwing money from helicopters ", that is the ultimate form of stimulation, which involves the direct allocation of funds to private persons", - he said.

The Governor of the Central Bank of France, Francois Vileroj de Gallo says, said that economic growth can not be increased due to the increase in government spending and budget deficits. "Large budget deficits in France and Italy did not do the country's European" champions "of economic growth, - said Vileroj in an interview with Les Echos -. No one should not create any illusions election debate: accelerated growth of the French economy can not get out budget costs "Vileroj points out that Bank of France believes that the budget deficit of France in 2017 to be around 3.1 percent of GDP instead of 2.7 percent as envisaged in the state budget. He also said that France must respect its obligations to reduce its public deficit below 3 percent of GDP in 2017 Vileroj said that the French public spending is currently at 56 percent of GDP, while in Sweden and on average in the euro area on government spending is deferred 51 percent and 47 percent, respectively. Vileroj said that reforms are crucial to raising the GDP growth, which will, according to estimates of the Central Bank, be at 1.3 percent in 2016 and 2017.

In November, the budget deficit amounted to US $ 136.651 billion, more than double the indicator for the same month last year ($ 64.549 billion), the Ministry of Finance announced that the budget revenues decreased by 2.5% - to $ 199,875 billion. At the same time the costs rose by 24.9% -. to $ 336.526 billion, mainly due to increased costs in the area of health insurance. At the same time, for 2 months 2017 fiscal year, which began October 1, the US budget deficit has been reduced by 10.1% and amounted to $ 180.843 billion compared to $ 201.107 billion in the same period last year. The amount of revenue in the budget has increased since the beginning of the current financial year by 1.3% - to $ 421.567 billion, while expenses decreased by 2.4% and amounted to $ 602.410 billion. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts an increase in the US deficit in the 2017 fiscal year to $ 594 billion.

People's Bank of China on Tuesday, the yuan strengthened against the dollar by 0.22%, after mitigation previous day, according to the regulator. On Monday, the People's Bank of China lowered the yuan against the dollar by 0.16%. On Tuesday, the regulator found the middle exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar at around 6.8934, which is 154 points below beeženja on Monday, when the rate was 6.9086. Since mid-November the yuan against the US dollar several times updated historical lows of 2008.

In November, sales of real estate in China this year grew the slowest pace thanks to the introduction of restrictions on the purchase of real estate in the most "overheated" market. The value of sales of new homes rose by 16 percent to 910 billion yuan, compared with the previous year. Last month, the increase was 38 percent for a period of one year. "Politicians have achieved its objective of stabilizing the real estate market, so one should not expect quick start another round of intense stimulus," - said Zhao Jun, chief economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. According to China. - "Cooling market, however, can lead to a fall in real estate prices, and potential damage to property investment." Investments in real estate development rose by 5.7 percent last month. The volume of construction orders increased by 3.3 percent, compared with an increase of 20 percent in October.

Industrial production rose by 6.2% in China in November compared to the same period in 2015, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of China. Analysts had expected growth indicators 6.1%. Overall, from January to November, industrial production rose by 6%. 

In addition, it became known that the growth of investment in fixed assets amounted to 8.3% in January-November 2016. The analysts also predicted growth of 8.3%. In January-October, the pace of growth of investment in fixed assets also stood at 8.3%. According to data for the first 11 months of this year, investments in fixed assets amounted to 53.85 billion yuan. According to the results 11 months, investment in state-owned enterprises increased by 20.2% and investment by the private sector - by 3.1% annually. At the end of 2015, the volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 55.16 billion Chinese yuan.

The foreign exchange market the same

III The situation in the markets

A pair of EUR / USD is consolidating near the levels of the opening session, waiting for new drivers. Experts note that on the eve of the meeting FOMC noted increased demand for the dollar. Today, the couple may affect ZEW reports on Germany and the euro zone, as well as the US statistics, in particular the index of import prices. In addition, market participants will continue preparations for the meeting of the Fed, whose results will be announced tomorrow. It is expected that at the meeting the Fed to raise short-term interest rates. According to the futures market, now likely tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve on December meeting amounts to 93.2% compared with 94.9% the previous day. Raising rates, in general, supported the US currency, which makes it attractive for investors who seek to profit. However, investors will be more focused on central bank forecasts of future levels of short-term interest rates, which can be a catalyst for further growth of bond yields in the United States. However, in their predictions for the coming year, Fed officials can not take into account the inflationary pressure that may arise from incentives that is recommended by Tramp. At the same time, some analysts believe that the market may not be ready to tighten policy at that point the statement of managers, which may affect the mood of investors. In addition to the Fed meeting this week, investors will monitor the data for the industry of the Euro-zone, which will be published on Wednesday. Economists predict that the growth of industrial production in October was 0.2% compared to the previous month, after falling 0.8% in September.Strong resistance - $ 1.0872 (maximum 8 December). Substantial support - $ 1.0505 (minimum 5 December).

Pair GBP / USD traded almost unchanged, while investors are waiting for the strengthening of the US dollar before the Fed meeting. Results of the survey Reuters, which was attended by more than 120 economists showed that unanimous in the expectation that the Fed will raise rates to 0.50-0.75 percent. In addition, this week will be published in a lot of data from the UK, which will help to better assess the state of the economy after Brexit. Inflation data will be released on Tuesday, which will help to better assess the state of the economy after Brexit. On Tuesday will be published inflation data, which will show how the damage to the welfare of consumers in November due to a sharp increase in purchase price producers caused by the growth of the pound. Economists predict that annual inflation accelerated to a 25-month high of 1.1%. On Wednesday will come out data on the labor market, who believe it would be to show that the unemployment rate increased slightly in the third quarter. On Thursday will be published data on retail sales in November, which as expected to show a slight decline in sales compared to October. In addition, on Thursday will be held the meeting of the Bank of England. According to a survey by Bloomberg, all respondents expect the central bank to keep interest rates at 0.25%, and that will not change the scope of the program of purchasing agents. An important resistance - $ 1.2772 (maximum 6 December). Substantial support - $ 1.2548 (minimum 8 December).

Pair AUD / USD is slightly increased at the beginning of the session, but then lost all their positions in response to mixed data from Australia. National Bank of Australia announced that in November the index of conditions in the business circles in Australia stood at +5, which is slightly above the October value of +4. Business confidence in November rose from fourth to fifth in October. According to the NAB, Australia to see a slight recovery of the oil industry. Business conditions declined in November, departing from the long-term average levels for the first time since April 2015. However, despite the downward trend in business conditions, business confidence remains relatively stable. Meanwhile, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that house prices in the third quarter rose by 1.5% in the previous quarter. Most economists had expected the index to rise by 2.5% after rising 2.0% in the second quarter. On an annual basis, house prices increased by 3.5%, which is also below the forecasts of experts at 4.6% and the previous value of 4.1%. Strong resistance - AUD0.7579 (maximum of 15 November). Substantial support - AUD0.7362 (minimum 24 November).

Pair USD / JPY shows a slight increase. Most likely, few maintain an upward trend, as the high oil prices and risk appetite before the meeting of Fed support. Most market participants expect that this week the Fed to raise interest rates. However, at a meeting in December will be the most important thing is to increase the rate, but the Fed forecasts about future plans, as well as Janet Yellen comments on this issue. Further dynamics of the US dollar to a large extent depends on the signal strength on the willingness of the Fed to accelerate policy normalization in 2017 or, on the contrary, - signals the momentum for the economic recovery of the United States. After the presidential elections in the United States, analysts have revised forecast of the dynamics of money, and now we expect that by the beginning of next year will increase to 120. However, strong growth at this level could trigger a political problem, analysts warn. An important resistance - Y116.10 (maximum 12 December). Strong support - Y112.87 (minimum 5 December).

stock market

The main US stock indexes ended mixed yesterday's trading, but the Dow Jones reached a new record high.Some support has made the dynamics of the oil market. Yesterday, oil prices rose by 1.6-1.7% due to the final agreement of countries, within and outside OPEC to cut production. At a meeting of OPEC, on 30 November, they agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day and confirmed the plans on Saturday. Countries outside OPEC agreed to reduce their overall production by a total of 558,000 barrels per day, in this sense, Russia 300000. The reduction will begin in January, an agreement was signed for the first half with a tendency to extension. The focus is also found US data. The budget deficit in the US last month increased, indicating growing dissonance between government spending and revenue. In November, the budget deficit amounted to 136.65 billion dollars, according to the US Treasury. This is more than twice exceeded the deficit in November 2015, which amounted to 64.55 billion dollars. In addition, investors are preparing for a meeting of the Fed. Currently, the tightening of monetary policy at the December meeting, the Fed almost entirely included in the price.Therefore, at the December meeting will be important only to increase the rate, but the Fed's forecasts about future plans, as well as Janet Yellen comments on this issue.

Asian stock indexes traded mostly in negative territory as investors await the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Fed. Attention market participants will be directed to the rhetoric speech Fed governor, Janet Yellen and economic forecasts regulators. Investors are hoping to figure out whether the Fed will adjust its expectations regarding the rate increase in 2017 because of the election victory of Donald Trump. His economic policy, is expected to be to strengthen the country's economic growth and accelerate inflation to the target level of 2% Fed. Trading at the highest in Asia, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, opened today in the zero zone due to the desire of players to record profits after several days of growth. Soon, however, stock prices wished to grow. The insurance sector to trading in Tokyo recorded the biggest losses, after the Nikkei reported that the base rate, which helps to determine the premium for optional car insurance in Japan, can be reduced by 10% in 2018.

Expected negative start trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.

The market of financial instruments

At present, the yield of 10-year bonds the US is at the level of 2, 47 % ( 0  bp).

The yield of 10-year German bonds is currently at the level - 0, 40 % ( 0  bp).

The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in the area  1 , 46 % ( 0 bp).

raw material markets

Futures of oil WTI demonstrate the negative dynamics. Currently, the January futures traded at $ 52.75 per barrel (-0.15%). Oil prices are slightly lower, correcting after the growth to the level of July 2015 due to an agreement to cut production. Analysts believe that the agreement of countries inside and outside OPEC may increase oil price at 60-70 dollars per barrel. However, they warn that the pace will depend on how faithfully the participants of the agreement meet the requirements. After analyzing 17 agreement to reduce the angle of production in the period since 1982, Goldman Sachs analysts have concluded that, on average, members of OPEC filled its obligations by 60%. They cartel members exceeded the quota for 880,000 barrels per day in 2000-2008. for years, says the analysts of Morgan Stanley. Another factor that can reduce the efficiency of the transaction is to activate the manufacturer of oil shale in the United States.

At the moment, the price of gold traded at $ 1,161.00 (-0.10%). Precious metal becomes cheaper due to the expectations of the Fed meeting. Later today, the US Federal Reserve will begin meeting, and the results will be published on Wednesday. Analysts believe that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5-0.75%. According to CME Group, the market estimate the probability of such a decision to 93.2%.Recall, gold is usually cheaper when interest rates rise, because it yields interest income and becomes in this case is less popular compared to the funds, which bring income. But the main focus will be on the rhetoric of Fed Governor Janet Yellen, who will be the content of the press after a meeting of the Federal Reserve and economic forecasts. Investors are hoping to understand what will be the pace of rate increase due to the expected policy Trump.

IV main event dards and data present session (time GMT 0)