Today Elon Musk said that the Tesla Semi truck official unveil will be postponed to the 16th of November, citing “production hell” due to model 3 rampup.
Meanwhile, Reddit user claimed to spot the semi in the wild 4 days ago. The original image by the user was deleted, but a copy is still on Verge:
The expected range on the semi is 200 to 300 miles on a single charge and is likely to feature some kind of Autopilot. Looks like the market for semis is the next electrification battleground.
Semis are accounting for 20% of carbon pollution from transportation (which itself accounts for 27% of all green gas emissions) contributing 5.4% to the total in the USA. In addition, impeding regulation to achieve efficiency improvements of 2.5% annually on semi-trucks provides a strong tailwind for electrification movement.
In the light of the above, the vertical extension in the car lineup is a logical next step for Tesla. Except, Tesla is not the only one vying for the semi market.
Earlier this year Nikola One, a hydrogen powered 1,000hp and 2,000 ft.lbs of torque monster was unveiled. It boasts an 800-1,200 miles range and a 15min refill time, something that Tesla would be hard pressed to match.
In addition, Nikola Motors (the maker of Nikola One) guiding star is trucker’s economy. On the Cost Side, they work on reducing the running costs:
The truck is designed to be 2,000 pounds lighter than a comparable diesel truck, translating into better fuel efficiency on the road and comes with a 1mln miles free hydrogen fuel, essentially removing the price at the pump out of the running cost equation.
Perhaps the most exciting is the Revenue Side:
The development team is working on what they call Nikola Shipments in cooperation with Ryder.
Nikola Shipments
Nikola Shipments gives an ability for every freight broker to upload their freight to the system and have the Nikola drivers pick them up, much like Uber for Freights. It is envisioned as a real-time AI enhanced dispatching service that would algorithmically calculate the most profitable routes for the truckers based on their location, preferences and weather conditions. According to the Company founder, this system alone can improve the margins by upto 50%.
*Higher Revenue less lower operating costs means that it might not be easy for Tesla to come in and dominate semi truck market just as easy as the passenger vehicle market, this time around. *
Of course, Tesla having an industry leading database of AI assisted miles along with a talented team of big data analysts and machine learning experts would have no problems matching or likely exceeding Nikola Shipments system.
Then the deciding factor in impeding battle is likely the price tag.
Although none was officially announced for Nikola One, I estimate it ca.** $440,000**.
This is based on the Company’s founder stated $5,000-$7,000 pmth lease payment, running over 84 mths (based off official website) and interest rate of 4% p.a.
At this level, Nikola One is double the price of top of the line diesel truck.
If $440,000 is a ceiling and $200,000 is the “conventional” floor I would expect Tesla truck to be priced within this range. The question then becomes :