About ten days after the death of young Ridha Yahiaoui on April 17 in Kasserine, and the protests that ensued, Tunisia faces its worst crisis since the revolution. Some have even compared it to that of January 14, 2011. Indeed, the similarities are numerous (the same trigger: the death of a young unemployed and the same place: the seat of the governorate of a city of about sixty kilometers from Sidi Bouzid), but they stop there. There will not be a second revolution because the context is not the same.
In 2011, Tunisia lived under dictatorship. Today, it is a democracy, the first in the Arab world. It adopted a new constitution, established constitutional institutions and held free elections three times in five years. There remains the issue of employment, the other major demand of youth protesters in 2011-2012, which is also at the origin of the events we are experiencing. It is in a way, the Achilles heel of the young Tunisian democracy. The seven governments that have succeeded each other since January 14 have not been able to solve it. On the contrary, the unemployment rate has increased. In large part, because of social tensions, the climate of insecurity aggravated for two years by the terrorist threat and Tunisian and foreign investors who are reluctant to invest in Tunisia. And as a misfortune never comes alone, the economy is at half-mast. For the first time, the country has entered recession and the state coffers are empty. As a result, job opportunities have come down.
To break this vicious circle, there are two conditions: security and stability. Unfortunately, these are two exogenous factors over which the current government has no control, even if its performance is unsatisfactory to many Tunisians. Here again, it will be necessary to qualify. This government is not sufficiently supported by the parties of the coalition and especially by Nidaa Tounès, the majority party and it is not uncommon for some of its executives to be very critical of it. But, in any case, the moment, Habib Essid refuses to resign: "I never thought to do it," he said Thursday. Back from Paris, he will meet on Saturday the Council of Ministers before holding a press conference. It is therefore unlikely that the early elections that demand among others Moncef Marzouki take place. Evidently, the former temporary president is eyeing Carthage and he is looking forward to settling there. It will not be easy for him, especially since Tunisians do not keep imperishable memories of his management of the affairs of the state and he will probably not benefit from the voices of Ennahdha. Moreover, we should expect in the coming days to similar proposals from politicians who like scavengers want to take advantage of this crisis and the crumbling of Nidaa Tounès to get back on track. On the other hand, a government of national unity would be more appropriate. But is the Popular Front ready to take part? Perhaps he would prefer as Marzouki early elections where he hopes to grab the voices of Nidaa, decidedly object of all desires, and to gain power. Its executives and in the first place its spokesman, Hamma Hammami, have recently called on the militants to be ready to assume power.
And Ennahdha in all this? It strongly supports the government and behaves like a true majority party, denouncing acts of violence while supporting the "legitimate" demands of protesters. At the same time, she is working on the preparation of her congress without a grave or trumpet, and is waiting with serenity for the next election.