Everyone says no one wants war with Iran but provocations are escalating in number and severity. The reasons for not going to war refer to that of Iran's military power, a might long time acquired by the Persian state since the 1979 Revolution. Ever since, Iran's been preparing against a Western intervention.
Military pundits of all around the globe are certain that Iran's military will be not only a hard bone to crack but, had an all out war sparks, the possibility of oil disruption out of the Persian gulf - from where 35 percent of the world's seaborne oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz- will endanger the energy supply chains of Asia and Europe.
While it's true that the whole mess spiked when Washinghton unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, the current situation escalated to a point of no return when the Brits seized the Grace-1 Iranian tanker in a reckless piracy-style bravado ordered by White Hall. This was indeed the act that can spiral things out of control and detonate the war that everyone says don't want.
Many can argue that the al-Fujeira sabotage in UAE, the drone attacks on Aramco pumping stations in Saudi Arabia, the Japanese tanker damaged while crossing the Gulf of Oman - being real or false-flagged provocations -, or even the Iranian downing of an American state-of-the-art RQ-4A Global Hawk surveillance dron with alleged stealth capabilities, have also contributed to the current bottleneck and certainly they did, however, the spark that ignited the point of no return was May's seize of the Iranian tanker, fact that obliged Tehran to pay in kind seizing the British Stena Impero tanker while navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
The hands that are bounding the world to this reckless quagmire are those talking peace but gunpointing at Iran's temple at once.
Sun Tzu in the Art of War said - 'When you surround an army leave an outlet free' - meaning that a surrounded army with no way out will fight to the last soldier as they know dead so won't hesitate in inflicting the greatest damage to its opponent. 'The last soldier' in this situation means the destruction of hundreds of oil wells throughout the Middle East and the partial disruption of the Hormuz strait - where 15 oil tankers in average - from Irak, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE - navigate the strait each day through only two wide very narrow nautical miles shipping lanes in either direction. A rather complicated passage to defend that Iran won't hesitate to ignite if pushed to war.
The Iranian seize of the British-flagged tanker gained momentum to the international coalition Washington and London attempt to form. Great Britain has added gunpowder to the Persian tinderbox by deploying the HMS Duncan destroyer joining the HMS Montrose frigate in the gulf. At the same time, Germany, France, Italy, and Denmark have reportedly expressed interest in the British plan while Washington has found echo with traditional allies like Australia, New Zealand, and others. This will only carry on more gunpowder to an already explosive situation and if the so-called coalition moves forward then will be just a question of time for someone shoots his foot for hostilities to spark. And in that case-scenario the unthinkable may happen. History has plenty of examples of wars sparking for less than that.
When the Iranians shot the American dron Trump and he decided not to retaliate he twitted: "I have some hawks. John Bolton is absolutely a hawk. If it was up to him he'd take on the whole world at one time" His remark proved that he's still in command of the American army. Let's hope he won't be dragged to a quagmire of incalculable consequences by those sinister interests in Capitol Hill, Downing street, and Beit Aghion.
The stakes are massive. The U.S. global unilateralism is in tatters and its predominance passes through the submission of Iran, North Korea, Russia and China. The latter two in process of expansion-allignation in a time when everything shows the U.S. is overextending its means and capabilities. The U.S. is at war against China in the South China Sea and Taiwan, against Russia in Ukraine, Syria, and against Russia and China all together in Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. Each day that passes by with so many open fronts is an invitation for a spark to ignite.
Will gambler Donald Trump be dragged to a hot war or will he be able to circumvent the warmongers around him. We'll know it soon.!
In the meantime we also have to be certain that neither Russia or China will remain passive to what happens in the region. For Russia, Iran is a strategic ally in the region, they have been battling ISIS and the U.S., U.K., and Israel 'moderate' terrorists in their war against the secular government in Syria. Hence, the Persian government is guarantee that Iran won't turn into another puppet petro monarchy at the service of the U.S. For China, Iran represents not only a key supplier of oil strongly needed by the Chinese to feed their economy but a major hub for the Chinese BRI, the pillar of the whole Chinese foreign policy, economy and trade.
Without an independent Iran, the BRI will find a bottleneck impossible to bypass but through Russia when the Chinese aim is to diversify connections to the European markets through the Arctic, Russia, the Middle East as a whole and the Malacca straits - the current and unique Chinese trade connection to Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
It's still unclear how far both powers will go to keep the Iranian economy afloat and able to resist the 'maximum pressure' the U.S. is imposing on the Persian state but the recent surveillance flight of two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers backed up by a Russian A-50 early warning plane and its Chinese counterpart, a KJ-2000, marks a notable ramping-up of military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow. Indeed, that happened thousand of kilometers away from the Persian Gulf theatre but signals that the strategic Sino-Russian non-alliance is deepening on a daily basis.
Hence, Russia's support to Iran will come up from the unaltered Caspian sea-passage that both share while China's tankers are unlikely to be harassed by Western navies.
Iraq can be as well a major support for Iran not to succumb economically as they recently reopened a cross-border with the Persian state providing Iran with a corridor throughout Irak, Syria and Lebanon, three states that will play an essential role to feed the Iranian economy out of starvation. Turkey, in wedges with the U.S. since the failed coup d'état in 2016 and in queue to be sanctioned by the U.S. Congress on the purchase of Russian-made S-400 anti-missile system, shares a 500 km border with Iran which Turkey is likely to use as a bargain chip against the U.S. Legally or illegally the passage will be used to trade with Iran for oil at a discount price, a well known practice Erdogan knows pretty well.
As Gandalf the White said before the Minas Tirith battle in The Lord of the Rings: 'The battle of Minas Tirith - Iran - will decide the fate of our times.