Trump at the DMZ? : Is War Coming?
According to Reuters, President Trump may be set to visit the DMZ early next month. While this has not been verified by the White House, the President is scheduled to begin a trip to South Korea, Japan, China, Vietnam, and the Phillipines in early November.
Vice President Pence visited the DMZ earlier this year, but a visit by President Trump in this current climate of increasing tensions would send a powerful and bold message to the nemesis in the north.
There is the possibility that by planning a visit to the DMZ, Trump could be intentionally sending mixed signals to Pyongyang, giving them the impression that he has no immediate plans for any imminent attack on North Korea. This could give the US military an advantage in using the powerful element of surprise should it be deemed necessary.
What could be Trump’s reasoning in going to the DMZ? If Trump does intend to use mixed signals to keep Kim Jong Un in a state of perplexity regarding what actions the US might take, then the possibility of a preemptive strike in the near future could be highly probable.
Kim Jong Un may breathe a temporary sigh of relief believing the American president is planning a visit to the region,—and in particular—the DMZ. This may lead “Rocket Man” to assume that a preemptive strike is something further down the road, giving him the false sense that he still has time on his side.
There is also the possibility that Trump is still hopeful that diplomacy can ultimately win the day, and that he can eventually get the North Koreans to come to the negotiating table. Based on his recent tweets, this is among the least likely scenarios. As much as he believes in negotiating and making deals—and especially his ability to succeed in this realm—Trump’s sentiment has shown that he doesn't see much hope in this happening.
Another option that Trump may be actively pursuing is a strategy of baiting North Korea into firing the first salvo, be it of striking Guam, shooting down US and South Korean military planes near the DMZ, or directly attacking South Korea.
Although a preemptive strike against North Korea might be justified after their many direct threats to strike Guam and even the continental US, many countries such as Russia and China would not likely view it this way. They might, in fact, be inclined to side with the North Koreans, which would drastically increase the odds that World War III could begin to unfold.
There is clearly no appetite in America for coexisting in a world that includes a nuclear and belligerent dictatorship in Pyongyang. And there seems to be no good option, short of military force, that will convince Kim Jong Un to give up his nuclear arsenal.
Future tweets from Trump, as well as responses from North Korea, will provide clues regarding the endgame, but for now we can try to anticipate where things are headed and be prepared for anything and everything. As Defense secretary James Mattis recently put it, “What does the future hold? Neither you nor I can say.”