ARLINGTON, VA — Democratic voters in Virginia left no doubt Tuesday night: They are highly motivated to rebuke President Trump.
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s solid victory in the gubernatorial election put to rest the idea that anti-Trump energy would be wasted in the type of race where Democrats traditionally don’t show up in significant numbers.
Northam, a Democrat and the state’s current lieutenant governor, defeated Republican Ed Gillespie by a sizable margin. And Democrats were on track to take an astonishing number of seats in the state legislature.
“This is a tidal wave,” said Dave Wasserman, editor of the Cook Political Report.
Trump, who had inserted himself into the race, urging his supporters to vote for Northam, was left to try and explain the defeat.
“Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for,” Trump tweeted from South Korea. “Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!”
The results here serve as a cautionary tale for Republican consultants about the limits of racially charged dog-whistle politics in swing states, even though that type of campaign obviously served to motivate the GOP base in Virginia. It will send Republican consultants who might have run carbon copies of Gillespie’s campaign back to the drawing board to find a winning strategy for next fall’s elections.
Northam’s win is a particular relief for Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, who is being challenged by a Trump-style Republican named Corey Stewart next year. It shows that anti-Trump sentiment is a powerful factor for voters. Trump never campaigned in Virginia for Gillespie but endorsed him and attacked Northam on Twitter Tuesday morning, saying Northam would be “weak on crime” and that under a Gillespie governorship “crime will be gone.”
However, Northam’s victory also demonstrates that figures like Stewart, easily dismissed as irrelevant just a few years ago before the rise of Trump, can no longer be ignored. Kaine, who is one of many Democrats discussed as a potential presidential candidate in 2020, will have to be on his game to avoid an upset loss to Stewart.
Democrats had worried that Northam’s campaign was collapsing in the closing days and weeks, under the strain of an energized and unified Republican base. In mid-September, Gillespie began launching a fusillade of ads attacking Northam on racially charged issues such as sanctuary cities, Confederate monuments and protests by NFL players.