Why Hurricane Irma could be catastrophic for Florida after Andrew
FLORIDA is fast becoming a ghost town as Hurricane Irma hurtles towards the US, bringing back horrific memories of another disaster 25 years ago
Hurricane Irma is set to batter Florida. Picture: APSource:AP
WHEN Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, the Category 5 super storm was so destructive it reshaped the entire region.
And now, survivors of Andrew are experiencing a nasty case of deja vu with more than half-million people residents racing to flee Hurricane Irma, a deadly Category 5 storm that is one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic with winds peaking at 300km/h.
If a similar-sized hurricane were to strike Florida today in the same spot, the result would be catastrophic and cause up to $100 billion (AU$124 billion) in damage, according to a report released by Switzerland-based reinsurance company, Swiss Re.
This is even after the fact that South Florida has strengthened its building codes since Andrew, which killed 65 people, destroyed 63,000 homes and caused $26.5 billion ($AU32.8 billion) in economic losses.
Irma could deliver a devastating blow this weekend as the storm barrels towards the tip of Florida. The storm hasn’t even made landfall in the region yet but the chaos has already begun; airline seats are in short supply and highways are choked with terrified residents seeking shelter.
WHY IRMA WILL BE WORSE
Bigger and with a 90-degree different path of potential destruction, Irma is forecast to hit lots more people and buildings than 1992’s Andrew, said experts, including veterans of Andrew.
At the time Andrew was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history with damages of $26.5 billion in 1992 dollars (about $50 billion in current dollars, AU$62 billion), according to the National Weather Service.
“The effect of Irma on the state of Florida is going to be much greater than Andrew’s effect,” said Weather Channel senior hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross, who was a local television meteorologist hailed as a hero during Andrew
The aftermath of Hurricane Andrew. Picture: SuppliedSource:News Corp Australia
“We’re dealing with an entirely different level of phenomenon. There is no storm to compare with this. Unless you go way back to 1926.”
Kate Hale, Miami-Dade’s emergency management chief — who grabbed national attention during Andrew by beseeching “where the hell is the cavalry on this one?” - said by nearly every measure Irma looks far worse.
“Nobody can make this up. This storm. This track at this point,” Hale told The Associated Press on Thursday.
Between Hurricane Harvey’s record weeklong flooding, devastating Western wildfires and Irma, which was nearing record- levels for the longest time at Category 5 strength, she called the effects on the national economy “potentially staggering.”
Thermal infra-red geostationary satellite image of Hurricane Andrew approaching landfall south of Miami in 1992. Picture: APSource:AP
IRMA TO TEST BUILDING CODES
After Hurricane Andrew revealed how lax building codes had become in the country’s most storm-prone state, Florida began requiring sturdier construction.
Now, experts say a monstrously strong Hurricane Irma could become the most serious test of Florida’s storm-worthiness since the 1992 disaster.
“If it was to hit with 298km/h winds, I don’t even know how the buildings under the new code are going to fare. That’s a storm beyond comprehension,” said Allen Douglas, executive director of the Florida Engineering Society.
Hurricane Irma Now Forecast to Hit Florida as Category 4 Storm. Credit - CIRA/RAMMB/NOAA via Storyful
Andrew razed Miami’s suburbs with winds topping 265km/h, damaging or blowing apart over 125,000 homes. Almost all mobile homes in its path were obliterated.
The acres of flattened homes showed how contractors cut corners amid the patchwork of codes Florida had at the time. For example, flimsy particle board had been used under roofs instead of sturdier plywood, and staples had been used instead of roofing nails.
Rows of damaged houses sit between Homestead and Florida City after Hurricane Andrew struck. Picture: APSource:AP
“It was the conclusion by engineers and economists that the building code was the core reason that Miami suffered the costly damage that it did,” said Leslie Chapman-Henderson, president and CEO of the non-profit Federal Alliance for Safe Homes.
In Andrew’s wake, Florida mandated the most stringent building codes in the U.S. Since 2001, structures statewide must be built to withstand winds of 178km/h and up.
The Miami area has even higher requirements. Broward and Miami-Dade counties are “high velocity hurricane zones” where structures must withstand hurricane winds of at least 209km/h; critical infrastructure buildings must withstand winds of 251km/h and up.
People crowd Fort Lauderdale International Airport as evacuation is underway for the arrival of Hurricane Irma. Picture: AFPSource:AFP
NMany South Florida residents are evacuating and heading north as Hurricane Irma approaches. Picture: Sarasota Herald-Tribune via AP)Source:AP
“THE CODE ISN’T PERFECT”
Irma, however, worries experts. The dean of the University of Miami’s College of Engineering, Jean-Pierre Bardet, voiced concerns not immediately answered by the codes: Will high-rises withstand flying debris? Do people understand the forecast shows Irma’s potential path, not where its strongest winds will blow? Do building codes ensure a quick recovery? Have some areas overcompensated?
Bardet had the same answer, over and over: “That is a good question.” Newer buildings aren’t expected to survive unscathed. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma’s Category 2 winds blew out windows in new Miami high-rises that met the updated code.
Residents of North Bay Village's Grand View Palace survey the damage to their units in Miami in the aftermath of Hurricane Wilma. Picture: APSource:AP
“The code isn’t perfect,” said former Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Craig Fugate, who led Florida’s emergency management division during the 2004 and 2005 storm seasons.
“It’s not always going to provide protection needed, especially for schools, firehouses, 911 centres and other types of critical infrastructure, even though those are critical functions that we should have hardened for wind and flood damage.”
Property owners should assume responsibility for ensuring resiliency for their own properties, instead of expecting the state or federal government to pick up the pieces if Irma hits, Ningen, chief property underwriter for the U.S. and Canada at Swiss Re, said.
“Building codes matter, but building codes alone are not going to save a house from a Category 5 hurricane,” she said.
The hurricane has killed at least ten people as it crashed through Caribbean islands including St Martin, Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands.
Mr Hooker and other Australians were waiting until Friday to get a better read on what path Irma would likely take before deciding whether to evacuate. “One of my baristas is from Noosa and his wife is eight months pregnant,” Mr Hooker said.
The couple hopes to stay in the area where their doctor and hospital is, but are prepared to evacuate.
Another Australian, Cameron Pinnock, his wife Alyssa and two children aged seven and two, took no chances with staying in their home in Orlando in central Florida.
Damage in Orient Bay on the French Carribean island of Saint-Martin, after the passage of Hurricane Irma. Picture: AFPSource:AFP
They flew north to Michigan, even buying a ticket for their family dog, to wait out the hurricane with family.
Gavin Caddy, an Australia lawyer in Fort Lauderdale on Florida’s southeast coast, is driving 240km north to be with friends in the central Florida city of Sebring.
“You can’t play games with this,” Mr Caddy said.
“It’s as wide as the state of Florida so the chances are it will hit the entire state and some areas are worse than others.
“There is nowhere in south Florida that is safe as far as I’m concerned.”