Stanford University economist Tony Seba has stopped selling more cars, buses or trucks anywhere in the world in eight years, and the entire land transport market is turning into electricity, leading to a collapse in oil prices and the demise of the oil industry that existed for a century.
The Daily Telegraph reported that the seba report, "Rethinking Transportation from 2020 to 2030", had spread rapidly in green circles and began to cause anxiety spasms in existing industries.
Seba's basic assumption is that people will stop driving altogether and that they will collectively be converted into self-propelled electric vehicles 10 times more expensive than fossil fuels, with a marginal fuel cost of about zero and an expected life of about 1.5 million kilometers.
"The turning point will come in the next two to three years, when the electric vehicle will exceed 300 kilometers and electric cars in America will fall to $ 30,000 and by 2022 the cheapest models will fall to 20,000, Seba says the world will adapt to cars on demand, and it will be difficult to find a petrol station, spare parts or anyone who can repair the huge number of moving parts that run the internal combustion engine, and car dealers will disappear by 2024.
The cities are expected to ban drivers as soon as the data confirm how dangerous they can pose under their leadership. This will spread to the suburbs and beyond. There will be long queues of existing cars, the value of used cars will be reduced and the person will have to pay money to get rid of his old car.
Seba said in his report that long-term crude oil prices would drop to $ 25 a barrel, most forms of shale oil and deep-water drilling would be futile. Scotland would lose any of its wealthier mines in the North Sea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Venezuela would be in trouble.
It would be an existential threat to Ford, GM and the German automaker, and they would face a choice between manufacturing electric cars in a low-profit market or renewing themselves as self-service companies like uber and Lift.
Seba believes that this shift will be driven by technology, not climate policies, and that market forces will bring this technology quickly and fiercely that governments can never hope to achieve.
He added that the turning point would come in the next two to three years, where the electric vehicle will exceed 300 km, and the prices of electric cars in America will fall to thirty thousand dollars. By 2022, the cheapest models in their class will fall to 20,000. After that, everything will collapse in front of him.
seba predicts that the cost curve by 2025 will include all new electric vehicles, all new cars, buses, tractors and trucks, and anything that moves on wheels will be electrically global. Global demand for oil will peak to 100 million barrels per day by 2020, then fall to 70 million by 2030.
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