According to a joint study by the Energy Research & Scenarios in Cologne and the European Center for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at the King's College London, the European gas supply will change fundamentally because the own production is declining.
Despite a projected decline in European gas production, the EU is in a position to diversify its gas imports and to ensure its security. The study states that over the next 20 years the Union will have several options for diversifying its gas imports in short and long term. The study focuses on the factors and key stakeholders, Russia and Turkey, which are expected to significantly influence the European natural gas future.
The two key factors for the EU to achieve a favorable strategic position.
Externally: The availability of alternative natural gas sources and the growing possibility for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are important to create a favorable framework for increased competition.
Internally: The EU could benefit from further progress in market integration, in particular by investing in infrastructures linking its highly-liquid north-western gas market to south-eastern market.
The decline in European gas production will be replaced by russian gas, remaining a major source of European gas supply.
The construction of Nord Stream 2 would make Germany the main transit country for gas and the most important turnstile in Europe. The pipeline would be associated with the construction of new connecting pipelines between Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia which then offers the option to transfer gas from Germany to all european countries no matter where the gas comes from.
Further more the expansion of gas imports through the southern gas corridor is planned as well. This southern pipeline would give more benefits to the southern countries. Turkey as an energy transit country could be an important partner for EU. An expansion of gas imports through the Southern Gas Corridor could be influenced by developments in Turkey and by its relation to its neighbors.
The US is against the construction of Nord Stream 2 and of course against the Turkish Stream. They want to export their own LNG gas to the european countries will try to keep russian and mid-east gas imports out of the Union. Last week, however, the European Parliament also passed a resolution calling for a stop of Nord Stream 2, because the pipeline would "contrary to the EU interests".