The Personal Income and Outlays report published yesterday shows resilient Personal Consumption that was supported by a decrease in Savings while Real Compensations and Real Disposable Income growth moderated.
We find these strong data on consumer also in GDP Growth indeed some days ago GDP report for Q3 came out stronger than consensus expected, at 3.0% YoY (BBG consensus 2.6%). Average GDP growth for the year now stands at 2.2% YoY. Very notable the contribution from Inventories (+0.7% out of 3.0% of GDP); in detail:
• Personal Consumption Expenditure contributed by 1.6% (0.9% from Goods, 0.7% for Services), up 2.4% QoQ Ann (3.3% prior)
• Gross Private domestic investments contributed approx. 1% (Fixed Investments 0.3%, of which Non-residential +0.5%, Residential -0.2%; Inventories +0.7%): Non-residential Investments +3.9% QoQ ann (prior 6.7%); Residential -6% QoQ ann (prior -7.3%)
• Next Export contribution was positive 0.4% (Exports +0.3%, Imports +0.1%); Exports up 2.3% QoQ Ann (prior 3.5%), Imports down -0.8% QoQ Ann (prior +1.3%)
• Marginal contribution from Government Consumption (Federal +0.1%, State and Local -0.1%); -0.1% QoQ Ann (prior -0.2%)