Household morale in the United States declined in September, according to the University of Michigan's first estimate released on Friday, which raises some concern about the country's economic outlook after two hurricanes. It was 95.3 points for the first half of September, compared with 96.8 points in August. This level is almost in line with expectations of analysts, who were expecting 95.5 points. "Consumer confidence eroded in early September due to fears about the prospects of the national economy," said economists at the University of Michigan.
If the index of current conditions has reached "its highest level since November 2000", at 113.9 points (+2.7 points on a month and +9.3 points on a year), the expectations index has decreased by 4.9 points to 83.4 points. "The two hurricanes (Harvey followed by Irma) had a greater impact on the expectations of economic conditions," said economists, adding that 9% of respondents spontaneously mentioned fears that Harvey, Irma or both may have a negative impact on the entire US economy.
Although consumers anticipated, for example, slight increases in gasoline prices and a slight acceleration in inflation, these fears are largely "neutralized by their best financial estimates in more than a decade "they point out. "New revenue gains combined with rising real estate and financial assets have offset the negative effects of hurricanes," they continue.
Considering "the current resilience of consumers," economists believe that recent events should not deteriorate household confidence over time.
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