After Super Wild Card weekend we now move on to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Or simply Week Two if you have no interest in such formalities. How did your picks go last week? I went 3-3. The Saints, Ravens and Bills all came through for me.
My other picks? Well Washington was a long shot, the Rams were a mild surprise and the Steelers simply shit the bed. WTF Pittsburgh!
OK time to move on to Divisional weekend. Last season I went 3-1, pretty good for my lousy forecasting skills. It's going to be hard to improve on that number, but I'll give it a shot. Lets just say I think it will be a good weekend for some home-cooking.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Fresh off of their upset win over the Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams head east to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers. The Rams are getting a break with the weather as the forecast is calling for 32 degree temperature at kickoff and no precipitation. Practically summer weather in Green Bay for this time of the year, although I'm sure the Rams will find it a bit chilly. Wimps.
The Rams offense isn't very good so L.A.'s chance to win will fall on their defense. Can they hold Aaron Rodgers down enough to sneak away with a win? I doubt it. The Packers are well rested after their bye week while the Rams had to compete in a slugfest in Seattle last week. Aaron Donald and Co. will prevent Green Bay from running away in this game, but the offense won't score enough to win it.
My pick: Packers 24 Rams 13
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Baltimore Ravens finally got past the Tennessee Titans last week and head to Buffalo to face a Bills squad that dispatched the Indianapolis Colts. This is the game I'm looking forward to the most. I think it's the most evenly matched up contest of the weekend.
Right now the weather forecast is iffy. It might snow, it might rain, it should be windy. Those kind of conditions favor the running attack and no team rushes the ball better as a unit than the Ravens. Yet Bills QB Josh Allen has a cannon for an arm, wind might not matter with the force he can chuck a football.
Tennessee's defense is bad, yet the Ravens only put up 20 points against them. The Bills defense isn't great, but still it's better than the Titans. Buffalo put up 27 points against a very good Colts defense. There is going to be some points scored in this game and I have more faith in the Bill's offense.
My pick: Bills 28 Ravens 24
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Despite many factors working against them, the Cleveland Browns pulled off the biggest upset of Super Wild Card weekend by trouncing the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their reward is a trip to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. Sometimes life isn't fair.
Head coach Andy Reid rested most of the Chiefs starters in Week 17, which means coming off of the bye they haven't seen live game action since December 27th. That's a long break and I expect the Chiefs to come out of the gate slowly as they shake off the rust. Will Cleveland be able to take advantage? Probably to some extent, yet I doubt the Chiefs will implode like the Steelers and turn the ball over like crazy.
Even if Cleveland races out to an early lead, they won't be able to hold off the Chiefs for long. QB Patrick Mahomes is too good. Good offenses, and even a few mediocre to bad ones, have been able to put up big points against the Browns defense this season. I expect KC to do the same.
My pick: Chiefs 31 Browns 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
The final game of Divisional weekend is the only rematch on the slate. In fact it will be the third time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs got here by beating the No-Names last week while the Saints defeated the Bears.
The Saints won both meetings between these two teams this season. In the second game the Saints absolutely crushed the Bucs 38-3 in one of the biggest beat downs of the year. New Orleans held a 31-0 halftime lead and took the second half off, in Tampa Bay no less.
Tampa has improved since that ugly loss, at least on offense. The Saints have been pretty consistent all year. They say it is hard to beat a team three times in one season, but is that really true? Since the merger in 1970, 21 times a team that swept the season series faced off against the same opponent in the playoffs. The sweepers have gone 14-7, 12-5 at home. The Saints are at home this week and they rarely lose big games in the Super Dome.
My pick: Saints 31 Buccaneers 27
My Super Bowl pick, Buffalo over Green Bay, is still alive but in jeopardy this week. The Packers should win fairly easy. The Bills face a very tough Ravens squad. Still I have faith Buffalo won't let me down. At least this week.
I went with all the home teams this week and history tells us normally at least one of the home teams fall on Divisional weekend. We will see.
Thanks for reading and feel free to let me know your picks in the comments below. If your favorite team is still alive, I wish you good luck.