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Finally we have arrived at Championship Weekend, the NFL’s version of the Final Four if you will. We have two great matchups to look forward to, both rematches from earlier this season. Spoiler alert: I think the results will be different this time.
So how did your picks go last week? I went 3-1, missing out on the Buccaneers mild upset of the Saints. Drew Brees suited up, but apparently his arm retired a week early. That was one ugly performance. At least I finally learned my lesson and didn't pick New Orleans to make the Super Bowl this year.
The rest of the home teams (Green Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City) were victorious, as I so wisely predicted. The Packers and Bills won with ease while the Chiefs faithful had to sweat out their game to the final minute after Patrick Mahomes had to leave the game with an injury. Luckily it looks like Mahomes will be eligible to play this week.
OK the Divisional games are over and we head for Championship Weekend. Last year I went 2-0 with my picks, which was a great improvement over the 0-2 I posted in 2019. I had nowhere to go but up! Let's see if can keep my momentum going forward this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3)
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Our first game on Sunday has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaving the warm weather of Florida to head to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, the home of the Green Bay Packers. The game time weather prediction is calling for below freezing temperatures and either snow or freezing rain. Sounds like fun!
Will the weather be a deciding factor? Tom Brady has played in plenty of freezing games in New England, but it has been a while. He's talked plenty about how he loves the warmer weather in Florida. The cold will probably be a shock to the system for most of his teammates. If nothing else it gives the Packers a bit of a psychological edge.
These two teams met way back in Week 6, with the Bucs laying a beating on the Pack to the tune of 38-10 in Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers had an awful game, throwing two interceptions. He only threw five interceptions the entire season, so this was an outlier game for him.
Brady didn't have an impressive game that day either, the Bucs offense was carried by strong rushing performances by Ronald Jones and Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn was filling in for an injured Leonard Fournette, who will be playing on Sunday.
I think the only shot Tampa has to win is if they force a bunch of turnovers for easy short field scores like last week against the Saints. And I don't see that happening with Aaron Rodgers under center for Green Bay. He won't be coming into this game with a chicken wing for a throwing arm like Drew Brees.
The Bucs defense has been playing well lately and I think they will prevent the Packers from running away with the game, at least early on, but I have little faith that Tom Brady and the offense will be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers.
My pick: Packers 31 Buccaneers 20
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
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The second game of Championship Weekend sees the Buffalo Bills heading west to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. The game time weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the middle 30's with rain and wind.
Just like the Packs/Bucs, the Bills and Chiefs also faced off all the way back in Week 6 with Chiefs winning 26-17 in Kansas City. Weird, huh? Patrick Mahomes had a pedestrian game by his lofty standards, it was running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire who smashed the Bills defense with 161 yards on 26 carries. Edwards-Helaire has missed the last three Chiefs games with leg injuries and is questionable to play this week, as is backfield mate Le'veon Bell.
In that Week Six loss, Bills quarterback Josh Allen had one of his worst games of the season. He only had 122 passing yards and threw a pick. The Bills running backs only gained 42 yards on 15 carries. Overall it was the worst performance by the Bills offense for the entire season, their 17 points scored was the low water mark for the year.
However the Bills have improved on both sides of the ball since that defeat. The run defense that was shaky early in the season had little trouble containing the Ravens #1 rushing attack last week. Their job will only get easier this week if Edwards-Helaire and Bell are unable to suit up. Josh Allen's game has improved to the point where he is in the conversation with Mahomes and Rodgers for the best QB in the NFL.
Of course the Chiefs chances of winning hang on the health of Patrick Mahomes. It has been announced Mahomes has cleared the concussion protocol and will play on Sunday. The concussion was the news this week, but Mahomes also injured his toe last week against Cleveland and it clearly affected some of his throws. If he is still hobbled by that toe it could become an issue.
This game should be a shootout. I think it is encouraging that the Bills were able to hang in there with the Chiefs back in Week 6 despite their offensive struggles in that game. The Bills should put up plenty of points this time. Injury concerns could slow down the Chiefs a bit. Yet Patrick Mahomes always finds a way to win. But maybe not this time. I think the Bills have destiny on their side and I'm calling for an upset.
My pick: Bills 38 Chiefs 35
Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Packers to the promised land or can Tom Brady return to the big game representing the NFC? Can the Bills make the Super Bowl in Tampa to avenge the infamous "wide right" game or will the Chiefs be able to defend their title? We have to wait until Sunday to find out. Should be a fun pair of games either way.
Thanks for reading and let me know your picks in the comments below. If you are a fan of one of these four teams I wish you good luck. However if you are a Buccaneers fan I won't mean it because I've seen enough of Brady in the Super Bowl.