Hey guys,
So I’m sitting here on Friday night crunching numbers for my Draft Kings lineups and I figured I’d make a post to share my numbers.
I’m taking each defenses points against by position and each players average points per game (Home or Away depending on where the game is being played). Adding those 2 numbers up, dividing by 2. Then dividing that number by the players salary on Draft Kings.
Example:
QB Points Against
PHI = 18.56
M. Trubisky avg points at home = 25.5
Average = 22.03 divided by his salary of 6,200
That brings us with 3.55x his salary. In other words, Trubisky’s expected value based on his average points per game at home is 3.55x his salary of 6,200.
Now that we’ve discussed the math, lets take a look at all of the QB’s.
Trubisky 3.55
Prescott 3.37
Wilson 3.2
Luck 2.96
Watson 2.85
Rivers 2.77
Foles 2.62
Jackson 2.39
Now this doesn’t mean Trubisky will have the most points this weekend. It means based on average production and average opponent points given up, he’s the best value at QB. Expected to produce 3.55 x’s his salary. 6,200 x 3.55 = 22.01 points.
Running Back
Edwards 3.72
Miller 3.51
Cohen 3.11
Sproles 2.61
Gordon 2.44
Mack 2.42
Zeke 2.41
Carson 2.29
Running backs are a little shaky. The numbers are saying Gus Edwards has the best value, but with Dixon in the mix, it’s a risky play. Zeke is a solid play and can almost always be counted on for volume, but at his 9,000 price tag, he’ll need to produce 33.48 points to meet Edwards expected value.
I hope you guys enjoyed this!
http://ffnation.com/nfl-draft-kings-value-plays-2019-nfl-playoffs-wild-card-weekend/