How to Fix the New England Patriots Roster in Two Seasons Part 2: The Defense

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Summary of the Plan:

This is part 2 of the plan to fix the New England Patriots roster and return them to annual contenders for the Super Bowl in the NFL. In Part 1 we fixed the offense and created a future with blue chip players in the draft, spending most of the draft capitol on acquiring a top WR and a top QB in the first rounds of the draft, and spending a 2nd round pick on a Tackle and spending another 2nd round pick on trading up for a QB. The Patriots also signed a few players: Tee Higgins, and two decent veteran lineman, so they have limited cap space remaining.

Part 1: @titusfrost/the-new-england-patriots-roster-analysis-and-potential-improvement-plan-for-the-offense

The Patriots Defense is actually quite good even on paper. Rebuilding this defense is more like re-tooling the defense. How can the Patriots improve on defense without draft picks or spending big money in free agency?

Draft Picks Remaining After Part 1 of the rebuild…

Likely Draft spot: 5th overall in the draft.

2024 Picks remaining:

Their Own: 3rd, 5th, 7th round picks. Plus: 2 additional 7th round picks

2025 Picks remaining:

Their Own 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th round picks. Plus 3 additional 7th round picks.

2024 Expected Salary Cap: 256 Million

Patriots Defense By Position: Grades are MY own for 2023 performance

Contract $ Source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/contracts/

CB

1. J.C. Jackson = Grade: B - Contract: 16.5M Expires: 2027 Age: 27
2. Jonathon Jones = Grade C+ Contract 9.5 M Expires 2025 Age: 30
3. Christian Gonzales = Grade C Contract 3.75M Expires 2028 Age 21
4. Marcus Jones = Grade D Contract 1.3M Expires 2025 Age 25
5. Jack Jones = Grade C- Contract 1.1M Expires 2025 Age 25
6. Isaiah Bolden = D+ Contract 1M Expires 2027 Age 23
7. Shaun Wade = C Contract 0.95 M Expires 2025 Age 25
8. Jalen Mills = D Contract 3.75M Expires 2024 Age 27
9. Myles Bryant = C Contract 2.6M Expires 2024 Age 25

This year the CB play on the Patriots has been up and down mainly due to injury. The football gods have not smiled upon them and they have been decimated with injuries that I would not expect to happen in the future. The Patriots acquired J.C. Jackson who is a huge cap hit and under contract for a long time, however as a Patriot he was quite good and I think he could be a dependable number 2 outside CB. Christian Gonzales was absolutely great so far this year, but the one worry was about his durability against the run game and here we are with him out for the year. I would bet on Gonzales recovering and having a breakout year 2 campaign, I think he is a true #1 shut down CB for this team for years. Having Gonzales and JC Jackson on the field opposite each other shutting down teams for next 3-5 years should be a great combo, def championship potential caliber.

Jonathon Jones should be used as a FS in 2024. His contract is up after 2024, and being on the wrong side of 30 I let him walk, saving 9.5M against the cap in 2025. Marcus Jones is a good young CB with great kick return ability, I would make him the starting punt / kick returner and the starting nickel CB in 2024 and see if he is worth keeping around. Jack Jones is a good depth piece for outside CB, cheap contract until 2025, so long as he does not shoot a TSA agent on the way to some game. Isaiah Bolden showed a lot of promise and might be a good depth piece for Marcus Jones in both the kick return and nickel CB. Shaun Wade has shown improvement and is a good depth piece. Myles Bryant and Jalen Mills are not great, they are way overpaid and should just be let go saving 2.6M and 3.7M against the cap. Thus lowering your CB cap number by 6.3M in 2024 and another 9.5M in 2025. Without losing any of the key players moving forward. Maybe take a shot on a late round slot corner, with kick return ability in the 7th round for depth.

CB Room 2024:
RCB Christian Gonzales 3.75M
LCB J.C. Jackson 16.5M
Slot Corner: Jonathon Jones / Marcus Jones 10.8M combined

Depth: Jack Jones, Isaiah Bolden, Shaun Wade, 7th Round Pick and (Jonathon Jones if not playing FS) 4M

Total Cap Hit: 35.5M

This would be a good cornerback room and should be able to provide sticky man coverage thus making the pass rush able to get to the QB. In the modern NFL having a CB room like this is potentially deadly if the players develop properly like Gonzales. I really like this group as is moving forward, they are all under contract already. No need to overpay in free agency.

Top CB Free Agents 2024 (Salaries are current not future):

1. Steven Nelson Age 31 contract 4.5M
2. Kendall Fuller Age 29 contract 10M
3. Stephon Gilmore Age 33 Contract 10M
4. Levi Wallace Age 28 Contract 4M
5. Jaylon Johnson Age 25 Contract 1.6M
6. A Witherspoon Age 28.6 Contract 1M
7. Marcus Peters Age 31 Contract 3M
8. L'Jarius Sneed Age 27 Contract 1M
9. Sean Bunting Age 26 Contract 3.5M

OLB

1. Matt Judon: B+ Age 31 Contract 13.6M Expires 2025
2. Josh Uche C+ Age 25 Contract 1.3M Expires 2024
3. Anfernee Jennings Age Contract 1.1M Expires 2024

Top Free Agents:

1. Danielle Hunter Age 29 Contract: 17M
2. Leonard Floyd: Age 31 Contract: 7M
3. Josh Allen: Age 26 Contract 5.6M
4. Montez Sweat Age 27 Contract 2.9M
5. Rashan Gary: Age 26 Contract 3.9M
6. Nicholas Morrow Age 28 Contract 1.1M
7. Jerome Baker Age 27 Contract 12.5M

OLB is one area where the defense could really use some help. Matt Judon is the only player at the position under contract for next season and the only one worth keeping. Judon is great but he is past 30 and only going to get worse every year. Josh Uche I would trade at this deadline. The Pats are 2-5 currently and not a chance of sniffing the SB it's rebuild time. Uche is not resigning for cheap, even after this down season, I would trade him for hopefully a 4th round pick in 2024. Fortunately the pats have a ton of cap space, and saved 6.3M on the CB moves we made.

I would go after Josh Allen, it is going to cost a fortune but if you can get him for somewhere around 15 million per season, you could have the next defense in the NFL next season and moving forward. 2023 Allen so far has 14 QB hits and 7 sacks. If you cannot afford Allen, I would be fine with Sweat, Gary, Baker, in that order. However, this team will need to add OLB in free agency. Ideally you add Josh Allen for 16M per year cap hit, and you draft an OLB in the 4th round or fifth round of the draft with the pick you received for Uche. Then draft again in the 7th round and add a cheap free agent or two for depth.

OLB Group 2024 could be:
ROLB Josh Allen 18M
LOLB Matt Judon 13.6M
Depth: Uche trade 4th or 5th Round Pick, Cheap Free Agent, 7th round pick 3M Cap

Total Cap Hit: 34.6M

This gives the team two extremely good veterans that can pressure both sides of opposing teams offensive lines, and allows the Patriots to let Matt Judon walk in 2025 or resign for a significant discount. Josh Allen would be your true number #1 pass rusher at LB moving forward as Judon phases out. Allen is only 26 and should be a solid player for 3-4 more years. Behind them you have cheap depth in case on injury, but because you spent so much cap on two players Judon and Allen you have to spend very little on the depth. However Judon coming off the edge and Allen off the other is a vicious combo, championship caliber pressure. With the ability to create pressure with fewer rushers and the talent the pats have at CB, this team could be extremely good.

LB and ILB

1. Ja'whaun Bentley: Grade A- Age 27 Contract: 6.7M Expires 2026
2. Raekown McMillan: Grade F Age 27 Contract: 1.5M Expires 2025
3. Jahlani Tavai: Grade B Age 27 Contract: 2.2M Expires 2025
4. Mack Wilson: Grade C Age Contract 1.6M Expires 2024
5. Chris Board: Grade F Age 28 Contract: 2.5M Expires 2025
6. Terez Hall: Grade F Age 26 Contract .94M Expires 2024
7. Marte Mapu: Grade D+ Age 23 Contract: 1.3M Expires 2027

2024 Free Agents:

1. Devin White Grade B- Age 26 Contract 7.5M
2. Bobby Wagner Grade B+ Age 33 Contract
3. Patrick Queen B- Age: 24.2 3M
4. Jordan Hicks B- Age: 32 5M
5. Lavonte David A- Age: 34 4.5M
6. Josy Jewell C+ Age: 29 5.5M
7. Zach Cunningham C Age: 29 1.7M
8. Kwon Alexander C Age: 29 1.3M
9. Willie Gay Jr. C+ Age: 26 1.3M
10. Devin Bush C+ Age: 25 3.5M

Moving forward the Patriots will have under contract already Ja’Whuan Bentley who is one of the best standard ILB’s in the league and very stout at run defense from a 3-4 or a 4-3 front. Jahlani Tavai has also proven to be quite solid at being a backup to Bentley and playing the other ILB position in the 3-4 front. Tavai and Bentley can both play SUB LB in the nickel but that is not their forte. Marte Mapu showed signs in camp that he could be the starting Sub LB the Pats have needed for years, however since then no one has seen Mapu because for some reason he is not on the field as a sub LB but as a safety which is not ideal. The Pats should start putting Mapu at starting sub LB and see what he can do when thrown into the fire, my guess he needs time to bulk up to be able to get off blocks in the run game. Currently Mack Wilson is up after the end of the year and he has been the de facto sub lb this season. I am not a Mack Wilson fan and I would let him walk.

Pats dead money at ILB starting with 2.5M in cap space for Chris Board and another 1.5M for R McMillan and another Terez Hall .94 M. Chris Board was a terrible signing, overpaid by 2.5M. Has done nothing, should be cut to save as much money as possible, his horrific deal is up in 2025 regardless. Raekwon McMillan and Terez Hall are people that don’t exist to me, they should be cut for any cap savings possible their deals are also both up. With these three gone and Mack Wilson gone, you save 2.6M in 2024 and additional 4M in 2025. With that I would try to sign a linebacker for that amount or less that can start at sub LB. Best 2024 options in order are: Patrick Queen, Devin White, Devin Bush, however those all might be too expensive. So you maybe someone outside the top ten free agents at ILB, if none can be signed for 2.6M cap hit or less for 2024, for depth and draft a 7th round pick for depth. Ideally Mapu develops and is the starter at sub LB in 2024 you were looking for anyways. You can also drop Peppers down into sub LB more and leave Dugger at SS.
Ideally LB 2024 starting roster would have:
ILB Bentley 6.7M
ILB Tavai 2.2M
Sub LB Mapu also Jabrill Peppers at Sub LB more 1.3M

Depth: Free Agent Depth LB, R McMillan, Chris Board, 7th round pick 6.6M

Total Cap Hit 2024: 16.8M

DT Defensive Tackle:

1. Davon Godchaux B- Age 28 Contract: 10.8M Expires 2025
2. Lawrence Guy C Age 33 Contract: 2.8M Expires 2025
3. Christian Barmore B Age 24 Contract 2.1M Expires 2025
4. Sam Roberts D+ Age 25 Contract: .95 Expires 2026
5. Daniel Ekuale D Age 29 Contract: 1.7M Expires: 2025

Free Agents:

1. Chris Jones Grade A+ Age 29 Contract 19.5M
2. Justin Madubuike Grade C+ Age 26 Contract 1.2M
3. Christian Wilkins Grade B+ Age 28 Contract: 3.9M
4. Daquan Jones Grade B- Age 32 Contract 7M
5. Quinton Jefferson Grade C- Age 31 Contract 3.6M
6. Justin Jones Grade C- Age 27 Contract 6M
7. Michael Pierce Grade B Age 31 Contract 5.5M
8. Fletcher Cox Grade B- Age 33 Contract 10M

At defensive tackle the Patriots are okay, not great, long gone are the days of Vince Wilfork or even big Sam Adams stuffing the middle of the line like a turkey on thanksgiving. I was hoping Barmore would become that player but sadly no, however he is still a solid defensive tackle in a 4-3 set and a good defensive end in a 3-4 set. Barmore is under contract for two more years, just keep him and develop him. Davon Godchaux is the closest thing they have to a nose tackle, he is not great especially for 10.8M a season, no sure you can get out of it nor is he a liability, just kinda have to deal with that contract till it expires. Lawrence Guy is a team player, and I am fine with him sticking around at 2.8M till he retires after the contract ends, no more extensions no more money but he can play out his deal. Sam Roberts is fine for depth. Daniele Ekuale is basically another depth piece that can be let go after his contract expires.

I would try to sign Michael Pierce to be the starting NT and move Barmore to defensive end if possible for 5.5M per season to sign Pierce, anymore than that and I sign someone less expensive for depth and keep Barmore at DT.

Ideally starting DT 2024:

1. Michael Pierce (5.5M) per
2. Davon Godchaux 10.8M
3. Lawrence Guy 2.8M
4. Sam Roberts .95M
5. Daniel Ekuale 1.7M
6. Barmore if needed but he is moved to DE on the depth chart 2.1M
   Total Cap Hit with Barmore included: 21.75M

Defensive End

1. Deatrich Wise B+ Age 29 Contract 5.5M Expires 2025
2. Keion White B+ Age 24 Contract 1.97M Expires 2027

2024 Free Agents

1. Leonard Williams Grade: B- 21M
2. 1. Chase Young Grade: B 8.64M
3. Dorance Armstrong: C+ 6M
4. Yannick Ngakoue: C+ 10.5M
5. Michael Danna: C+ 0.9M
6. Montez Sweat B 2.9M
7. Brian Burns B+ 3.3M
8. DJ Wonnum B- 1.1M
9. Jadeveon Clowney B 2.5M
10. Calais Capmbell B 7M
11. Montravious Adams C- 2.5M
12. Jonathon Greenard C+ 1.1M
13. Bilal Nichols C- 5.5M
14. Jonah Williams C+ 0.9M
    At Defensive end the Patriots are actually quite set at the starter position for a good while. Deatrich Wise is a solid veteran player, versatile and at worse a B- level and at best a B+ grade DE. I would let him play out his contract for next two seasons and re-evaluate. Keion White is a stud defensive end rookie. I am really happy with this draft pick and I think he develops into a top defensive end in the NFL in the next few years and eventually replaces the pressure brought on one side of the line by Judon. White is signed for through 2027, and is easily good enough to be a starter and be a threat to opposing QB’s for cheap money for a few years. Barmore being moved to DE allows him to be used inside on 4-3 alignments and outside on 3-4 alignments giving Wise a spell on 3-4. That way your 3-4 front three is Barmore – (Pierce hopefully) or Godchaux – White, which is a mean front three. Or you can line up 4 front with Wise – Barmore - (Pierce hopefully) or Godchaux – White which is a very solid front 4. All this requires is signing one NT that is better than Godchaux or relying on Godchaux and making no major roster moves. This team with current players under contract already has a solid defensive line, they should be playing much better than they are. They should be able to get pressure with 4 in 2023 Wise, Barmore, Godchaux, White on every play if they started playing to their skill level. Maybe add a 5th round pick.

Ideally:

1. Deatrich Wise 5.5M
2. Keion White 1.97M
3. Barmore (2.1M counted in DE cap hit)
4. 5th round pick 1M
   Cap Hit: 8.47M

Safety …

FS

1. Adrian Phillips Grade C+ Age 31: 4.25M Expires 2025
2. Cody Davis: Grade D Age 34 2.25M Expires 2024
   SS
3. Jabrill Peppers Grade B+ Age 28 6M expires 2025
4. Kyle Dugger Grade B+ Age 27 4.7M Expires 2024
5. Marte Mapu (Bulked Up and Moved to Sub LB) Grade D+ Age 23 Contract: 1.3M Expires 2027
6. Brendon Schooler Grade A- (only on special teams) grade as S = D Contract 0.9M Expires 2025
   Top Free Agent FS:
7. Geno Stone Age 25 Grade C Contract 1.7M
8. Jordan Whitehead Age 27 Grade B- Contract 5.5M
9. Tashuan Gipson Age 33 Grade C+ Contract 2.9M
10. Xavier Mckinney Age 25 Grade B- Contract 2M
11. Antoine Winfield Jr Age 25 Grade B+ Contract 1.5M
12. Deshon Ellliot Age 27 grade B- contract 1.7M
13. Darnell Savage Age 26 Grade C+ Contract 3M

The strong safety position on this roster is quite solid, I would try to resign Kyle Dugger this offseason, his cap hit cannot increase too much from 4.7M per season based on the other SS salaries in the league. Worth keeping around. This allows the Patriots to start Kyle Dugger at SS, with Peppers spelling him from time to time. Also this allows Peppers or Dugger to slide down to second Sub LB position on nickel defenses. Having these two SS’s on the roster means you can do some really creative things and have really solid play at SS always. No need to add, just keep Dugger.
At this point the Pats have spent 130M of their 256M Million in Cap space on the defense. They still need a FS. The Patriots have the cap space to go after Antoine Winfield if they don’t go after Josh Allen, he is a dynamic blue chip player that would instantly make us all forget McCourty’s absence. However that is a lot of money to spend on defense at FS. However if they did sign Winfield that would be roughly 12M cap hit I am guessing. I would prefer the pass rusher in Josh Allen. I would move Jonathon Jones to FS as the new starter for deep coverage, with Adrian Phillips as depth and draft the best FS in the third round of the 2024 draft and try to develop a young player for cheap money.

SS:

1. Kyle Dugger 7M
2. Jabrill Peppers 6M
   FS:
3. Jonathon Jones (salary counted in CB hit)
4. Adrian Phillips 4.25M
5. 3rd Round Pick 1 M
   Total Defense Cap Hit 135.25 Million. NFL Cap 2024 = 256M Leaves 120.75M for Offense Cap Hit
   Starting Defense 2024: Best in the NFL Potentiallly
   LCB: Gonzales
   RCB: JC Jackson
   SLC: Marcus Jones / Jonathon Jones
   LE: D Wise / Barmore
   RE: Keion White / Barmore
   DT: Michael Pierce
   DT: Godchaux
   LOLB: Judon
   ROLB: Josh Allen
   ILB: Bentley
   ILB: Tavai
   Sub LB: Mapu / Peppers
   SS: Dugger / Peppers
   FS: Jonathon Jones / Adrian Phillips / 3rd Round Pick

This defense could easily be the best defense in the NFL in 2024, and moving forward. With at the rise of the younger players and the addition of a true blue chip talent in Josh Allen at pass rush this team without using any real draft capitol could be the best defense in the NFL in 2024. This could really take the pressure off the offense as you rebuild the offense around top 5 draft picks as depicted in part 1. The defense would cost more than the offense but defense wins championships. If you are rebuilding the offense with draft picks at number 1 WR and at QB, you can spend more on the defense as you have plenty of cap space as I demonstrated.

The Patriots Roster could be rebuilt, they could be a top contender again with small adjustments on defense and a full rebuild through the top of the draft on offense. This is the only way the Patriots will ever rebuild to a level of perennial contender instead of the no man’s land of 7-10 wins.