(Illustration courtesy of Mercurynews.com)
So it appears that the end of the Korean War is on hold. We have been waiting decades for that occasion anyways, so perhaps we should take the news of Trump's letter to Kim in stride (Here is the letter: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/trump-says-singapore-summit-with-north-korea-leader-kim-is-cancelled-.html) There are two reasons why I think we should avoid jumping to conclusions or forecasting doom in light of this morning's announcement.
Tone of the Communication
The more obvious and easy to ascertain reason is that this announcement was not nearly as provocative as the news media might suggest it to be. Have a look at the actual letter. There are a couple of key points to observe:
- It was an extremely diplomatic letter from one president to another. This was not a "Tweetstorm" or a dismissive State Department announcement meant to belittle Kim and his government by making them look less than equal. It was properly addressed and respectful to Kim. Little Rocket Man was not mentioned.
- It was mostly conciliatory and even complimentary. Only a couple sentences in the middle suggested that conflict could be in the offing. It almost read like a version of the Sandwich Model for constructive feedback, where you focus on positives, then touch on some negatives but finish with more positives. Trump sounded genuine and this tone matters now that the text of the letter is available for the world to see.
- The door was very deliberately left wide open for talks to resume. Trump knows this needs to get done and is probably hoping Kim reaches out for finds some other way to restart the process.
The Broader Scenario and Circumstance
It is so easy to focus on the events of the day and lose sight of the broader scenario and the circumstances contributing to this whole mess. The Kim regime may have indeed forced the US to negotiate by legitimizing itself as a threat to US security. That said, we so often don't talk about the fact that the regime would have no reason to wish to be a threat to the US if the US and its allies were not allowing themselves to be seen as an existential threat to the Kim dynasty. It's no coincidence that some of the supposed biggest provocateurs on the world stage are also those feeling fairly threatened by the US and its allies (Iran anyone).
The cynics can talk all they want about Trump being an opportunist and a corporatist and how he probably sees dollar signs when thinking about opening up the Hermit Kingdom's economy to the world. This may be true and the criticism may be just but I, for one, would rather see a Trump Hotel going into North Korea than a Trident Missile. His motivations may only be a means to an end and frankly, a treaty may not be the end.
We must always remember that pieces of paper only matter when they can be believable, reliable and when need be, enforceable. the US may technically be at war with North Korea and the symbolism of a treaty to replace the armistice would be huge but it would only be of lasting consequence, if the parties all were willing to live in a state where they would not be prone to further provocation. Kim would really need to make nice with his neighbors and reform his society. Trump would need to ignore the deep state and military-industrial complex pressures towards armed conflict and accept that the Korean Peninsula is not a part of the world that the US needs to control. Only then would the type of peaceful relations with North Korea that so many of us would like to see be possible.
So feel free to shred my first point and say that Trump is being stupid, bombastic, short-sighted, crafty, bluffing, whatever. But the second line of reasoning is what we really need to examine. It will not matter who wins the gamesmanship contest or who comes out looking like the mastermind if there is not a commitment to a real lasting peace that recognizes that consequences of the behaviors of the last several decades and pledges to correct course. It will not even matter who wins the Nobel Prize. Heck Trump could win it but so did Obama. We can all see how well that worked out.
Change Concept
Here's a suggestion for a potential mindset shift that would certainly make a difference. Make the goal to be finding a lasting peace between the two Koreas. Reunification can be left up to them. The US could revert back to its place on the other side of the Pacific Ocean militarily and perhaps could help the other interested parties like Russia and China rebuild the NK economy and infrastructure. The point being, the supposed existential threat would then be removed from the situation and the Americans, Chinese, Russians and others interested would be left to either do the right thing or to do nothing. This concept might just hold some water in solving the real problem, whether the Trump-Kim summit ever happens or not!
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