Nostalgia is weird.
Everyone looks back on "The Good Old Days" from time to time.
But were "The Good Old Days" really that good?
I'm suddenly reminded of this YouTube video that I watched a long time ago. Unfortunately I can't find it. No matter.
The basic gist of it was everyone forcing their friends to go to their favorite fast food restaurant. The one person that had nostalgic memories of that particular place would revel in "how good it was" while everyone else was just kinda like, "Yeah, it's okay I guess, but let me take you to _____". And so the story continued until everyone had tried everyone else's garbage food and realized that none of them were that good.
For me, that nostalgic fast-food is In-N-Out Burger (which was featured in the video). So many people around here love this garbage. It's almost frightening how diehard people can get around here over how "amazing" In-N-Out Burger is. Perhaps you can relate. I think a lot of people have one.
However, the nostalgia I'd like to reference today is just from 2 months ago.
Hive was spiking up to $1 and my posts were paying out a crazy amount ($40-$90). I think at one point I even broke $100. Quite the milestone.
Crypto moves fast.
I'm almost surprised there isn't some kind of crypto idiom equivalent to a "New York minute". It's only been two months, but it feels like an age. However, unlike normal nostalgia, crypto nostalgia doesn't stay in the past. We all know the days of the hyperbolic bubble will return.
It's not a matter of if, but when.
Today I'm making like $10 a day on my blog in Hive, $5 in Leo, and random amounts in Steem ($1-$5). And you know what? I'm grateful for that. Truly, I don't consider my blog to be very good, and I know if I had tried to monetize my words through any other platform it would have been an EPIC FAIL.
But what if... (speculation)
- Crypto goes x10, all of a sudden I'm making $170 a day.
- I could quit my job and work here full time.
- Crytpo goes x100, now I'm filthy rich.
Jumping the gun?
It doesn't feel like the days of epic ROI are upon us, does it? Kinda feels like business as usual or worse, with everyone wondering if Bitcoin and the stock market are going to crash into the dirt together. I'm personally not worried about that in the least bit.
As we've seen with this most recent run-up in Hive 2 months ago, everything can change in the cryptosphere within an instant. In one moment you've been suffering a 2-year bear market, a few days later your favorite coin goes x10 and your wallet says you're worth $50,000. As someone who made $12.5k last year & and the year before, that's pretty incredible.
2020 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6933 | $7467 | $8000 | $8533 | $9067 | $9600 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10133 | $10667 | $11200 | $11733 | $12267 | $12800 |
Bitcoin is still following the doubling curve.
Sure, a worldwide pandemic/lockdown sent us cratering 50% in basically one day, but it only took 3-weeks to recover after that absolutely unprecedented event. Now we sit at the doubling curve once again in quite predictable fashion.
When moon?
I think we are going to see major fireworks in August. Everyone is making a big deal about this $10.5k resistance line that Bitcoin seems to be getting hammered down by. Once the doubling curve support ascends above that line (August), the market is going to go bonkers. I'm expecting around a 3x spike from the doubling curve to around $30k.
The total market cap of crypto could very easily hit $1T, creating a frenzy of hype. Many will speak of the halving event and how it didn't fail us, and conclude that we are well on our way to the $200,000-$300,000 level.
The problem with riding high during this time is that the price is probably going to crash back to the doubling line before we see "the big one". Bitcoin has a history of coming back to the doubling line at least once a year. The halving event hasn't had enough time to suck liquidity dry from the market. We'll probably have to wait until 2021 to see the real fireworks.
Official Prediction
Bitcoin up to $30k by the end of August/September with a crash back down to $12k-$15k for Christmas. From there, I imagine we'll begin our legendary ascension to the $200k-$300k level over the next 6-12 months.
