I want to begin this article thanking the Steemit Community for the opportunity to post here and write about subjects I am passionate about. This article is about Northwest Biotheraputics (NWBO) drug DCVAX-L . A drug which is currently involved in a phase III blinded study for Brain Cancer, specifically Gliobastoma. I feel I should begin this article by stating everything in this article is my own opinion, I am not an expert and should not be relied upon for any financial advice.
In 2017, my father sent me an e-mail from one of his friends about a stock which could be severely undervalued namely NWBO. In March of 2017, after some due diligence of my own, reading websites such as IHUB, Smith on Stocks, Twitter, and articles by Krstevski Branko. I started investing whatever spare money I could on a monthly basis. What I found has been interesting to say the least, NWBO is a highly distressed company which has dropped in value from $12 a share to just under .22 at the time of the article.
In June of 2018, NWBO presented at ASCO for a detailed explanation of how DCVAX-L works and how safe the treatment is I encourage all to watch the 2018 video presentation and 2017 slide show both found below. Essentially, after tumor resection (surgery) ones own tumor is made part of the treatment which is injected into the patient at several month intervals. The side effects are minimal, basically the patient could have a headache or have cold like symptoms. This is huge considering the current standard of care from cancer treatment involves chemotherapy and radiation.
https://www.nwbio.com/NWBio_ASCO_Update_On_Trials_6-5-17.pdf
One of the reasons the price of NWBO dropped was because it was highly attacked by shorts and several negative articles were written. Despite these negative articles or short blog posts, what has attracted me the most about this highly speculative stock is the potential upside. Although trading at .22 a share, if successful upon FDA approval share price could initially jump to as much as $5.00 a share.
Courtesy of Branko's Investment ideas (2017)
Branko is not the only one who feels if DCVAX-L upon FDA approval or unblinding could jump in price. According to Larry Smith from Smith on Stocks
"Right now, the fully diluted share count for NWBO is somewhere around 850 million. It is probable that NWBO will have to issue more shares over the next year although how many and at what price is difficult to estimate. For the sake of illustration let’s assume that NWBO issues 350 million more shares at $0.33 to bring in about $100 million. This would result in 1.2 billion shares outstanding and with a $5 billion market valuation the resultant share price would be $4.15 at some point in the next year or so." (Smith on Stocks. 2018)
https://smithonstocks.com/2198-2/
This could be just the start however as the potential if DCVAX-L is successful being bought out could have the stock skyrocket.
https://twitter.com/KrstevskiBranko/status/1010370561413791745
- KrstevskiBranko
"Pat, I don’t have a good handle on when the trial unblinds, the Co merely guided they’re being advised by their SAB about when to unblind. I feel Aug18 should be the latest they wait (36 mths from last patient surgery).
If this trial shows efficacy it’s a potential 100 bagger. GL " (Twitter. Branko June 2018)
https://twitter.com/necdicky/status/1010389717190209541
- necdicky
"Dear Branko. Thanks alot. Waiting 100+ bagger . $28 Wow" (Twitter. Dickie Chan. June 2018)
Of course this is speculation on a possible buyout. The question remains "For the stock of NWBO to reach these price values will DCVAX-L work?" To answer this question, I will always defer to people who are smarter than me, someone who posts on IHUB with clarity and diligence: Sentiment Stocks. Keep in mind for the uninformed reader that Optune is the current standard of care and is a device which brain cancer patients wear for 23 hours a day on their head everyday.
In July 2018 on IHUB, Sentiment Stocks makes the for efficacy in the following post
Point #2 (super big point)
But when you consider there were 108 patients that hadn’t even lived to 36 months (and they all won’t… but some will), those 44 patients that had lived to 36 months and beyond were really from a patient population of 223. When you look at the percentage of patients in the DCVax-L trial living to 36 months, from those patients that had even been in the trial that long, it was really 44/223 or 19.7, or 20%.
So… take DCVax and thus far, the data really shows that your chances of living to 7.35 years is 20%.
Optune’s trial can currently only show a 13% life expectancy at 5 years.
And DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE their control patients.
The number of DCVax patients surviving to 2 years INCLUDING CONTROL was 46.2% or 153 patients in March 2017. But according to the numbers above, 30 patients (those dating back to enrollment in the trial in October 2014), or 9%, in the DCVax-L trial HAD NOT EVEN REACHED 2 years as of March 2017. With 30 patients more with the chance to reach 2 years, and current data showing that 46.2% had reached 2 years, an additional 14 patients would likely as well. If that happens, it will mean that the odds of reaching 2 years of life are 50% (153 + 14 = 167/331 = 50%)
Point #3
And as of March 2017, the DCVax-L combined treatment and control data is already beating Optune’s microwave-for-the-head data.
I don’t see how anyone can argue that the DCVax interim March 2017 data beats Optune’s current data hands down.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142298047
Possible Downside to this Investment
While no investment is a sure thing, and this investment has been called by many a gamble... A high stakes gamble but one worth taking as the upside could be life changing financially. The downside could result in a complete loss of investment. Any investor needs to be aware of these risks and loss of all potential investing funds.
https://www.nanalyze.com/2013/08/the-dangers-of-over-the-counter-otc-stocks/
Posts on IHUB have stated short interest in NWBO stock could run as high or higher than 57% on given days. My friend who works on wall Street states the typical non OTC stock runs 5-7% of short interest. The CEO of NWBO Linda Powers has called out the manipulation of the stock
"Linda Powers, NW Bio’s CEO, commented “We are grateful to our shareholders for their votes overwhelmingly in favor of all three of the Proposals at the Special Meeting, despite what we believe was an all-out assault in the weeks leading up to the Meeting, with incessant attacks on the Company, its technology and its clinical trials, smear campaigns about our supposedly imminent demise, fear mongering on the message boards, apparent dumping of large blocks of our stock, millions of shares mysteriously being “lost” by some brokers and intermediaries, and other shares being “unavailable” or blocked from being voted."
https://www.nwbio.com/nw-bio-releases-vote-tallies-special-shareholder-meeting/
Lastly, Big Pharma will not want this to succeed as it could possibly revolutionize the cancer industry and they are just as likely to try and keep the share price distresses in attempts to bankrupt the company or buy the company out cheaply upon phase III completion.
Upside to this Investment
If the downside to this investment is possible loss of everything, the potential upside could be life changing. As the crux of this article has already pointed out the potential value per share could be anywhere from $3.00 a share to possibly $28.00 a share upon buyout. When will we find out? Many speculators on IHUB have posted somewhere between August and November 2018 as possibilities for data-lock or unblinding. In my brief experience in dealing with NWBO the company always seem to be late with everything they do and I would not hold them to these dates made by investors. I believe they will unblind when the SAB advises them to do so. Remember is patience is a virtue.
The science behind DCVAX-L can be a game changer in the fight against cancer. But whether NWBO will be a winner will remain a question until the final recommendation is made the FDA for approval or a buy-out of the company is made. Regardless, this is still high-risk and not for the faint of heart or those who get weak in the knees and tend to lose their patience. In my opinion only, the rewards out-weigh the risks and I have put my money on NWBO.
I hope you enjoyed this article. Please keep in mind that I am NWBO long and invested there. That is all my opinion. I am not an investment advisor nor an expert on science.