Paró 2025 is over. Another one coming soon?

The Paró of 2025 lasted for about 30 days from September 22, 2025 to October 22.

After the Paró was over in a Facebook post a friend of mine wrote about a fundraiser seeking funds for medical help for the seriously injured protesters from the Paró. ( https://www.facebook.com/share/p/15K9hThPCwml ) One man injured by a bullet to the nose says: “I don't regret defending my people's rights”. This is a man who needs serious medical care to be able to work again - and it is far from certain whether he (and many others) will be able to get that care. There are many others with exactly the same story. Hundreds were injured (and three killed) during this Paró.

The worry I have is that I believe many indigenous people feel just like this man does. And if I am right about that we may soon have another Paró. The last Paró changed nothing. No “Dialog” ever happened. The government did not reinstate any part of the diesel fuel subsidy. Initially at least, this was the principle grievance listed as grievances for the Paró. I believe many protesters feel they gave up too soon. I think the fact that nothing changed as a result of the Paró leaves many frustrated.

I believe if there is another Paró while Noboa is president the outcome will be exactly the same in terms of damage to infrastructure, damage to the economy, and injuries and deaths for the protesters. All to accomplish absolutely nothing. I believe this is a very real possibility.

Is there nothing we can do to prevent this?

I want to offer my own point of view - what I observed as an expat living in Ecuador. I suspect some will disagree strongly with some of what I have to say. Any feedback will certainly be welcome - that is the point of the this post. Please imagine in whatever comments you have that the audience includes indigenous protesters who were injured, store owners in Cotacachi, citizens of Cotacachi that wanted to travel but could not, and members of the Ecuador military who confronted the protesters and were tasked with clearing the roads.

Here is what I would say to that audience:

The Diesel Subsidy - part 1. The #1 grievance to start Paró 2025?

All citizens in Ecuador have rights that are not affected by an election. Although I am no expert on the Ecuador constitution, I assume everyone has the rights of free speech, choice of religion, pursuit of happiness and prosperity, etc. You have these rights no matter who wins an election.

Election Results 2025	Votes	Percent
Noboa (ADN)	5,870,618	55.63%
González (RC)	4,683,260	44.37%

Noboa won the election. And his party won control of the legislature. We are in a Democracy - and the indigenous people are part of that Democracy. When you win an election in a Democracy you do get to decide policy! And the diesel subsidy that has been in Ecuador for a long time is a policy - not a permanent right the citizens are guaranteed.

The instant this subsidy was removed the indigenous people seemed to take this as a direct attack on their way of life! A Paró seemed imminent, a vote was scheduled. Not many indigenous people own diesel powered vehicles. So why such an immediate and violent rejection of this policy decision?

The Diesel Subsidy - part 2. How much effect does it have on poor indigenous farmers?

The common explanation is that diesel fuel is used throughout for all goods shipped in Ecuador. And any price increase in diesel fuel will result in an increased price for many goods throughout the country. This increase in the price of goods - combined with the additional costs to ship their agriculture products to markets for sale will be too great a burden on the poorest people of Ecuador. I do not agree with this assessment at all. Here is why:

With the diesel subsidy in place, once the diesel fuel at the station goes into the users fuel tank, the government has spent their money. Once the user burns the fuel to go wherever they are going the fuel is gone. The only thing the subsidy has done is add a few more dollars to whoever bought the diesel fuel (ie - the driver). The government has no control at all over what the driver does with this money. How exactly does anyone think this money will get transferred into the pockets of the poorest citizens of Ecuador that it is targeted for? How much goes somewhere else? How do we know? Note that this subsidy process has been in place for decades - yet the poorest still seem pretty poor! Are we willing to try something different?

By contrast - if the government spends its resources on things like schools, infrastructure, health care, agriculture productivity projects, or low interest loans the benefit remains for years to come. You can point to these benefits and see them for years to come! The benefits can accumulate over time! Better schools will lead to more people having better opportunities in life. Better roads means more productivity for business, easier and safer travel for citizens, etc. Better health care means people have better and longer lives.

Just for fun - I asked an AI engine this prompt: "what do economists generally conclude about government subsidies of basic goods". The response was this:

Overall, economists view subsidies of basic goods as a complex policy tool. While they can serve valid social welfare functions in the short term, particularly to protect the vulnerable, most economists agree that they are often not the most efficient mechanism for achieving these goals and can cause significant economic harm in the long run. More targeted support, such as direct cash transfers to poor households, is often considered more efficient than general price subsidies

Can we agree to stop the fighting to restore the old and inefficient fuel subsidy process? And replace it with a more efficient way to permanently make positive changes for all the people of Ecuador?

Noboa may be a crook. Or not. But he did get elected by about 1,200,000 votes. Many people (like me) believe that getting rid of the fuel subsidy and using the money saved on something else is a good idea.

Suppose we turned around this question? Suppose that for the last two decades a policy was in place that subsidized children's school equipment for students with low income status? And there was no diesel fuel subsidy. Now in 2025 Noboa proposes to eliminate this school equipment subsidy so he can implement a diesel fuel subsidy. How would the indigenous population react to that proposal? So the point of this mental exercise is that indigenous people should be fighting for something that would directly benefit them, rather than fighting to simply maintain a subsidy which does not seem to be really producing any visible results in over 20 years or so.

Paró Euphemisms - “Mobilizations”, “Resistance”, “Peaceful Protest”. And “Dialog”

The terms used by indigenous press releases include terms like “we will mobilize”, “we rise in resistance”, “we will defend our rights”, and “we exercise our right to Peaceful Protest”. These terms make their actions seem noble and just. But these terms do not accurately describe what a Paró really is! During a Paró the rest of the public experiences a complete loss of our right to travel on public roads. The rest of the public is told to close their businesses. With force. Tires are slashed and doors are locked closed with steel cables. These are not noble and just actions.

I do not believe the indigenous people have the right to take away others rights. This simple statement is really the key to the entire issue with a Paró.

The protesters say they are “defending their right to protest” but in fact these protests trample on everyone else’s rights. Protests are fine. A Paró is not.

What are the consequences of closing all the public roads? People get very mad when you do this for one day. Do it for an indefinite amount of time and you have a genuine fury against the indigenous people. This fury will not be soon forgotten after the Paró is over. The fury remains - and it has real tangible costs for the indigenous people and for all of Ecuador.

When you are unable to travel there are all kinds of other issues that are difficult to quantify but nevertheless very significant. Health care travel is allowed - but not easily and sometimes not in a timely manner. Sometimes travel is for important commercial reasons or for very strong personal reasons: Businesses need goods delivered to keep their businesses going. People want to go to weddings, funerals, birthday celebrations. If you tell somebody they cannot do these things because indigenous people want the diesel fuel subsidy restored, it makes them very angry.

Let me repeat that for emphasis: people expect to be able to travel on the public roads their taxes and tolls paid for. They expect to be able to open the business they own and pay rent for and earn their livelihood with whenever they want to open. There is a justifiable anger when this doesn’t happen - and city officials do nothing to enforce their rights during a Paró.

For the last several weeks of this Paró - much was said about “We need a Dialog”. “Why can’t Noboa Come for a Dialog?”. But I believe Noboa did the right thing by staying away. He was absolutely clear from the beginning the fuel subsidy was not coming back. If he had come to Imbabura province it would have only sparked more violence. By “Dialog” - what is really meant is “Give us Something - so we can end this Paró”. And I believe Noboa had two goals from the start in all of this: The first goal was to eliminate the fuel subsidy. The second goal was to utterly crush the idea of Paró protests so that it will be less likely the indigenous people will vote for another one any time soon. He succeeded at the first goal, for the second goal I fear he will fail.

Noboa leads a government war killing machine.

The fury generated during a Paró is of course on both sides. The three deaths in this Paró are very real. I will agree that the military hurt and killed people that in some cases was not justified (real bullets fired, excessive tear gas, etc). And many injuries sustained are serious, including loss of legs, etc. But I believe there are also several points you must consider for a full picture of the truth:

First - it would be better to use the local police to do this job than the military. The protesters here are not military combatants - but they are breaking the law (IMHO) when they close traffic on a public road. There is also significant vandalism that occurs during these Parós. So these people are behaving criminally - and the police should act accordingly. They are trained in law enforcement - and they should also be trained in things like conflict de-escalation. All useful skills to have in this situation!

But as we saw repeatedly over the entire course of the Paró, the police in Otavalo and Cotacachi were completely unwilling to enforce the law. The police never made any attempt to clear roads that have been illegally blocked. The police never made any attempt to stop people clearly illegally forcing people to close their business. In short - the police did a spectacular job of doing absolutely nothing during the Paró.

Noboa must clear the roads

The roads must be cleared. From a democracy point of view Mr. Noboa is absolutely correct; part of a minority of people in one province of our country cannot decide on their own to cripple the economy and trample the rights of an entire Province. Yes - there are tens of thousands of them. They are still in the minority. Refer to election results if you don’t believe me.

Mr. Noboa has not only the authority to clear these roads, he has a duty to clear the roads. He is the president of the entire country and it simply is not tenable to let all the public roads in any province be blocked indefinitely. How would you expect him to clear the roads? The only practical tool he has available is to use the military.

You put several thousand military people trained in how to fight…and put them next to thousands of people who are absolutely determined to stop the military from doing what they have been commanded to do - and guess what? These people are hurling rocks, molotov cocktails, stabbing with pointy sticks. You are eventually going to have a fight with casualties.

After several weeks, the military spokesperson gave every warning he possibly could. He stated he was going to use “every force necessary” to clear the roads. He said this on Monday October 13’th I believe. He said it slowly and clearly - and very publicly. I had absolutely no doubt in mind what he meant when he said this.

My most emotional moment

Tuesday October 14’th Otavalo was a war zone. There were hundreds of casualties from Cotacachi alone. I don't know how many total. And this doesn’t count the ill effects that many suffered from the intense use of tear gas. I have heard (not confirmed) that two children died from the tear gas alone. Early Wednesday morning I was fully expecting the day to be even worse. Obviously the anger of the protesters was now at an absolute fever pitch - and the military folks still had a job to do. Louise and I observed that morning at the circle outside our house a young couple on a motorcycle headed to the Pana (we assume to go to the Paró). The woman had a baby strapped to her back!!

There is no excuse for anybody under any circumstances taking a baby child to the Paró that day. Especially after all those casualties occurred in Otavalo the day before.

Many complain about the brutality of the military - but again I ask: Why were these protesters there? To stop the military from opening the Pana. The military has been commanded to open the road! What do you expect? I repeat this statement: I do not believe the indigenous people have the right to take away others rights.

You call the military a “killing machine”. We see the pictures of burned police cars, burned trucks, rocks and punctured tires of thousands of protesters over 30 days. I think every one of the 5,000 or 10,000 military has a loaded gun. What would you want the military people to do? Give up and go home for another month and try again later?

I am grateful for one decision made by CONAIE - when they finally quit the Paró. Although they incurred the wrath of the UNORCAC group - this was the only sane decision to make. Any further attempts to keep roads blocked were simply going to result in more pointless casualties to the indigenous people of Imbabura. So while I am no fan of the leaders of CONAIE, I do give them credit for making this choice.

Terrorists?

Noboa uses the word “Terrorist” to describe the protestors. Protesters have huge banners saying “We are Not Terrorists”. “Terrorist” is an inflammatory term to use for sure - and Noboa should not do this. It doesn’t help anything.

On the very last day of the Paró (October 22) Lulu and our barrio president from La Compania went to the roadblock at La Merced to get the propane gas delivery our barrio was promised. This was our second attempt to get gas for our barrio. On the first delivery date (Oct. 17) - more than three weeks without gas delivery our barrio since the Paró started - we were simply told there was no gas for us. In calling some of the gas distributors for an explanation - one of them responded to Lulu leaving a voice message that it would be necessary to pay $1 donation per tank to UNORCAC to get gas. We were not going to do that.

On October 22 cars and trucks were scattered across the barrier in chaotic fashion - some cars allowed through and others told no. We were told to wait for our gas truck and they had no idea when it would come. As we were waiting we noticed the social atmosphere among the enforcers of the roadblock. People were laughing and talking. Eating lunch. A group of old women were gossiping. And we noticed a young man with a very well constructed stick for use in puncturing tires. He was always standing right where all cars were forced to stop. Louise asked the young man what the pointy stick was for. His reply was “Not to use - just to scare”. This really pissed me off. I believe this is the very definition of Terrorism! To get or maintain power through the use of fear!

I know we think of terrorists as people flying airplanes into the world trade center, but to me every single car approaching this roadblock was scared they were going to have their tires punctured. Our indigenous worker riding his bicycle home for lunch from our property almost got his bicycle tires punctured at the barrier that was temporarily up near our house one day. Only someone recognizing him as an elder saved him from punctured tires.

Another indigenous friend driving a friend to the airport to get medical treatment in the US had a medical conducto and was stopped past Otavalo. They said the medical cunducto was “a fake” and forced him to turn around. His vehicle was searched and he thought he was going to get his tires punctured. His friend missed her flight. This is not a unique occurrence - we personally know of other valid medical conductos that have been arbitrarily rejected.

Businesses in town regularly had to close doors as patrols came by. The phrase used was either “as a favor” or “we cannot guarantee what will happen if you do not close your door”. Those patrols had pointy sticks and also steel cables to physically lock people inside their store. That happened to our neighbor's wife. And a friend of mine saw it happen to a vendor who was begging to keep her store open so she could pay rent due at the end of the month.

Most vendors are legitimately scared when these patrols come by. And very angry when they leave.

So you object to Noboa calling the indigenous protesters “terrorists”? It is not wise from a conflict de-escalation point of view, but I don’t think it is as ridiculous as you think it is!

What are the results of other Parós? 2019? 2022? 2025?

I will start with a remark that Mr. Mesias said. He is an elderly indigenous man we both know who is always riding his bicycle around and who owns a lot of property on the street we used to live on. Mr. Mesias said he thinks he has been through about 50 Parós since about 1970. Imagine that! Some worse than others I am sure. I hear so many people say that a Paró is the only thing that works for the indigenous people to negotiate with power. I would say that based on the evidence of the last 50 years - what we can actually say is that a Paró is the one thing we know for sure that won’t work.

• 2019 - Not sure. Don’t think anything of any use to anybody
• 2022 - Basically 15 cents per gallon of fuel subsidies restored. That was the result of a protest that cost the country untold losses.
• 2025 - Nothing. Zip. Three dead. Many casualties. Untold losses in tourism, investment, loss of employment. No school (except very bad remote schooling) for four weeks. And not to mention the anger and resentment on both sides.

What should indigenous people be fighting for?

The poverty statistics of the indigenous people is staggering. Same for illiteracy, etc. Just google for any details here if you want.

Lulu helps one very poor neighborhood past Quiroga (San Bartolo) about halfway to Cuicocha that consists of about 13 families. She donates bags every year with all the kids school supplies and also does some teaching over the summer. The kids are all adorable. When she hands out the supplies at the beginning of the year she asks the older kids a random multiplication problem. For example, what is 7 x 9? Not one kid knows the answer. Including one that was entering senior year of high school. What exactly are the teaching standards in these schools?

One day she was there and it was a very clear day and Cayambe volcano was clearly visible. A stunning sight for everyone. She asked the kids if they knew the name of that volcano? They didn’t! She asked which volcano was taller? Imbabura or Cayambe?. They insisted that Imbabura was taller, unable to understand that the mountain further away may be taller than it looks.

The indigenous people need real changes. Hard changes. They need some real changes in leadership. They need to prioritize education. Early education as well as secondary education and job training education (see for example the charity that Pachi and Cynthia have started). I am always in favor of increased access to music education (like what Gandhy wants). They need access to low interest loans. They need to prioritize agriculture improvements.

The diesel fuel subsidy is absolutely useless to the indigenous people. So is a reduction in the IVA tax - that will help the rich people more than it will help the indigenous (because they spend more! - duh!!). The indigenous leaders should know this but they don’t.

It’s time for really new indigenous leadership to work together with the government rather than in constant opposition to it. Choose leaders who do not speak of “showing how we fight” so much. Choose leaders who do not demand increased fuel subsidies and reduced taxes at the same time. Choose leaders who speak of actual realistic solutions to the biggest problems indigenous people have.

As an example, this indigenous young man from Cayambe has some ideas worth listening to:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1300921514593402

Summary

• Fight for things that will actually help the indigenous people.
• Do not ever initiate another Paró again. For any reason. Never.