Super Bowl 53 is here and as fans we are in for a treat with two great offenses. The Patriots are favored on the betting side according to the odds posted at Bovada Sportsbook.Giving the Patriots an edge for this matchup is understable however, is it justified?
Consistency in the NFL relies on surprising your apponent.Game planning specifically for each encounter and then of course executing that plan with the fewest possible errors.All big plays boil down two things;
1.) On offense creating enough confusion that the defense " blows" coverage.
2.) On defense, creating enough of a disguise that the offense misreads your coverage,rush or both.
The Patriots understand this fact better than everyone else.They are the kings of preparation,thanks to their incredible coach(s).It's this understanding that drives their player acquisition engine.Sure they look at all the other metrics other teams do but at the end of the day they focus on one skill for every position.The single skill that is paramount to the New England system is teachability.
The Importance of teachability cannot be overstated.You see teachbility leads to adaptability and adaptability leads to flexibility .Its this Flexibility that allows The Patriots to prepare for every opponent and every situation.Even when they are wrong,its flexibility that allows them to make in game adjustments to overcome any opponent.
The Rams Coaching staff is comparable in terms of preparation and they definitely have the more talented roster.However,their edge in talent is neutralised by the Patriots edge with experience in all facets of the game from coaching staff to position players.
To be sure, the Rams formidabile run game is superior to a very good Patriots run game. But the Patriots Edge the Rams in the passing thanks to Tom Brady (71% Postseason Completion Percentage) being the superior passer to Jared Goff's (58%).
The skew in the passing game is exaggerated by the fact that Goff is missing his primary receiving weapon Cooper Kupp.The Rams passing game will also be further exasperated by a creative pass rush from the Patriots, much like they did to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game with their 'end-under' disguises.
On offense I don't see much in terms of edge.However, the expectation that the game will be pass heavy seems a little trite.There's two reasons for this.First off the Rams will try keep the ball out of Brady's hands with time of possession which means they will run the ball... alot. Secondly the
Patriots will need to tame Aaron Donald and that pass rush from the Rams which means they'll run the ball.. alot.
So what does this all mean from a handicapping perspective?Well I have The New England Patriots and Tom Brady Winning their 6th Lombardy Trophy.The Game Will be Barn Burner till the final whistle and the score will read something like 25-24.
Bovada Sports Book has the ATS at 57 and the over is even money that's a no brainer take the over.
Money line New England -140 is an okay proposition but they offer even money on the points at -3 which presents better value. However its dealers choice here.(take your pick).... for experienced punters play Rams as the dog and take the Patriots points as your hedge.
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