When Nigerian President Bola Tinubu stepped into the leadership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in July 2023, he wasn't just there for the title. With five military takeovers in the past three years, Tinubu declared, "No more power outages!" However, when a sixth coup rocked Niger, ECOWAS responded with a draconian economic blockade – a move as effective as putting a Band-Aid on a sinking ship.
ECOWAS wasn't alone in the coup conundrum. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) faced a similar pickle when Gabonese President Ali Bongo was shown the exit post a questionable election. ECCAS relocated its headquarters, condemned the coup, and did the classic "You're suspended" move. However, The coup-makers still have the upper hand.
Why the limp response? For starters, the region's geography is a game spoiler. When ECOWAS tried closing borders in Niger, some partners refused to play along, leaving holes in the blockade. Coordination between these bodies resembles a broken telephone – mixed signals galore. ECOWAS threatened military intervention in Niger, but the African Union (AU) didn't get the memo. Lack of consistency in their approaches leaves these organizations looking like the dysfunctional support you desperately call for help.
Then there's the inconvenient truth – popular support for these coups. It's like the region caught a coup fever, with citizens cheering on their new "saviors." In Niger, thousands marched in support, giving the coup-makers a stamp of approval. In Gabon, the new leaders are yet to set a date for a return to democracy, yet the applause continues.
Finally, these regional bodies are haunted by their questionable love affair with leaders who play fast and loose with democracy. Accusations of being a "tyrants' club" have followed the AU, especially when cozying up to leaders manipulating term limits or winning elections with a dash of controversy. This lack of consistency erodes their credibility.
So, what's the play for future coups? The region is already playing coup bingo, guessing where the next one will hit. The recurring theme? Weak domestic institutions. Regional bodies could be the heroes by strengthening them. However, the current leadership structure doesn't inspire confidence. Key positions are often doled out based on geography or member states, leading to officials prioritizing home state interests over regional stability.
Despite these challenges, these regional bodies aren't entirely toothless. They can spark crucial discussions, propose changes, and bring civil society into the mix. But it's a tough game. For now, African regional organizations face the same hurdles as many governments on the continent. Acknowledging these challenges is the first step in making them more effective. In the meantime, the region watches, waits, and hopes for a coup-free sequel.