https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/opinion/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china.html
I have no inside information on the real reason for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s risky trip to Taiwan, so this is pure speculation on my part. She presents her public reasons – or perhaps her public relations reasons – for her visit in today’s Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-op-ed/
Congresswoman Pelosi represents most of San Francisco, including Chinatown, with its large Chinese-American population. She famously unfurled a flag in Tiananmen Square, as she reminds us in her opinion piece:
“Thirty years ago, I traveled in a bipartisan congressional delegation to China, where, in Tiananmen Square, we unfurled a black-and-white banner that read, ‘To those who died for democracy in China.’ Uniformed police pursued us as we left the square.”
So she has a history with and political connections to the Chinese people, both at home and abroad.
Yet in her op-ed she fails to offer a convincing rationale for this trip:
“By traveling to Taiwan, we honor our commitment to democracy: reaffirming that the freedoms of Taiwan – and all democracies – must be respected.”
Maybe. But this is a very dangerous trip to make – dangerous for the people of Taiwan and their democratic form of government – and possibly dangerous for the people of the United States and the world.
As Thomas Friedman points out in today’s New York Times, Pelosi’s visit could also further endanger Ukraine. Friedman’s headline tells us what he really thinks of the Speaker’s trip: “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan is Utterly Reckless.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/opinion/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china.html
President Biden certainly did not request Pelosi’s trip, nor does his administration need this additional international headache right now. The Speaker appears to be making her own foreign policy, which, for a Speaker of the same political party as the President, is a very odd thing to do. That makes me wonder about her possible personal and partisan reasons for this trip. This may be Pelosi’s last hurrah. If the Democrats lose their majority in the House elections this fall, then she will be out of a job as the Speaker. And she is already 82 years old, two and a half years older than our geriatric president, Joe Biden!
I imagine that she will resign from Congress if the Republicans win the House and she is no longer Speaker. I further imagine that she knows that losing the House is at least a serious possibility, if not a likelihood. What might prevent that outcome? What might rally the American people around the Democratic Party this November? If the Democrats are seen as the courageous champions of democracy around the world, that might give them an electoral advantage and help propel Pelosi into at least two more years as the House Speaker.
I’m not suggesting that possibility is her primary reason for making the trip to Taiwan. But for a life-long professional politician, who is the daughter of a professional politician, political calculations are never off the table. In standing up for Taiwan – whether it’s a good idea to do so in this fashion or not – Pelosi is also promoting the Democratic Party, her continued leadership of the House Democrats, and her place in history.