Makati Digital Currency
Halloween Special: Black Swan, Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt
Date: 30 October 2018, 6PM
Venue: Blockchain Space (Acceler8), Makati City
At Makati Digital Currency's Halloween Special, we will discuss the terrifying subject of black swan, fear, uncertainty and doubt in the blockchain sphere / crypto market - and why it's important to take these improbable worst-case scenarios into account.
A black swan is an improbable or unforeseen event that comes as a surprise with devastating effect (e.g. 9-11, 2008 Financial Crisis, Mt. Gox hack, DAO drain). Due to its unpredictable nature, black swans are typically observed after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The Black Swan Theory was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and extremely rare occasions that are beyond the realm of normal expectations. It is almost impossible to compute their probability using established scientific methods. Also considering human nature, our psychological biases and beliefs further obfuscate these elusive swans which ironically become significant events in history.
In the blockchain sphere and crypto market, attempts have been made to forecast black swans hopefully to prepare us for their dire consequences. Some observers predicted a crypto catastrophe could be triggered by any of the following events:
- Tether (USDT) crash triggers wider crypto market crash
- Major blockchain projects get hammered by regulators
- Catastrophic code failure in blockchains with largest network users
- Large-scale hack of a Tier-1 crypto exchange
- Major terrorist attack funded thru cryptocurrency
- Contentious hard forks running amuck
- Quantum computing cracks encryption of blockchain protocols
- Assassination of highly influential blockchain figure
- Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is revealed who turns out to be an unsavoury character
- Cryptoasset derivatives (e.g. Bitcoin Futures and ETH ETF) crashes the financial market.
As it is unlikely that black swans can be stopped from wreaking havoc, understanding the improbable might at least mitigate their effects; or if we're optimistic, enable us to find new opportunities in their aftermath.
Plenty to talk about, and certainly interesting insights from our invited -
Panelists:
Joben Ilagan - CEO, Seer Technologies
Cecille De Jesus - Founder, Prodigy
David Margulies
Colin Goltra - Head of Digital Currency Team, Coins.ph
Luis Buenaventura - Chief Strategy Officer, Bloom
Moderated by:
Rafael Padilla - Co-Founder, Blockchain Association of the Philippines
We would like to thank our sponsors for this meetup:
- DISH2018
Reminders:
Our community is rapidly growing. We need more volunteers and considerable resource to arrange for our meetups. If you wish to help, sponsor or contribute to this event, please contact our organizers (rafpadilla@farcovelaw.com).
This is a free event. No need to seek permission if you wish to attend although we need you to RSVP.
Our open forum welcomes discussion of other topics not necessarily relevant to the announced theme. However, please allow the organizers opportunity to moderate the discussions.