The US president's goal of pressuring North Korea to get rid of its nuclear weapons looks closer to fruition after Kim Jong Un's visit to China, says one observer from the Financial Times.
LONDON: Could Donald Trump’s strategy for North Korea actually work? That is the question that is inevitably raised after the dramatic visit by Kim Jong Un to Beijing.
The US president’s North Korea strategy has been fairly evident ever since he took office. Mr Trump intends to put intense pressure on North Korea to get rid of its nuclear weapons, particularly those that could directly threaten the US.
To do this, Mr Trump has resorted to frequent threats of military action, talking of unleashing “fire and fury” on the North Koreans. But he has also always intended to use China, North Korea’s closest ally, to exert maximum diplomatic and economic pressure on the Kim regime.
The goal is that the combination of US threats and Chinese pressure will force North Korea to back down.
READ: A commentary on the greed, fear and hope beneath the Trump-Kim summit.
CLOSER TO FRUITION
On the face of it, this goal looks closer to fruition after Mr Kim’s visit to China. In a parting statement, Mr Kim pledged that the “issue of denuclearisation on the peninsula can be resolved”.
But while that sounds promising, a theoretical commitment to scrapping nuclear weapons still leaves huge issues to be resolved. The North Korean leader’s statement also referred to “simultaneous steps for peace”, which is probably code for the longstanding North Korean demand for the withdrawal of US troops from the Korean peninsula.
No US administration, to date, would have contemplated pulling out of South Korea. Mr Trump will probably maintain this US red line — although his approach to foreign policy is so unorthodox that nothing can be taken for granted.
More broadly, the prospect of a US-North Korean summit (and of a summit between North and South Korea shortly beforehand), clearly raises the possibility that all sorts of frozen issues may start to thaw.
Real diplomatic progress would also involve discussion of finally securing a peace treaty on the Korean peninsula that formally ends the war fought there in the early 1950s. At the moment, there is simply an armistice.
The South Korean government, led by the dovish President Moon Jae-in, is also keen to revive economic relations and people-to-people contacts.
THE CHINA FACTOR
The Chinese government, led by President Xi Jinping, will be pleased that Mr Kim’s visit to Beijing has reaffirmed China’s central role in resolving the Korean issue.
Since China shares a border with North Korea, and is also a formal treaty ally, the prospect of a war on the Korean peninsula is a big security threat to Beijing.
It is also a little humiliating for the Chinese government to be bypassed in the diplomacy over North Korea. (The analogy would be if Mexico and China were engaged in direct talks about war and peace, with no formal role for the US.)
But reinserting China into the diplomatic process also carries some risks for Mr Xi. The Chinese line, in recent months, has been that Beijing has very limited leverage over the North Korean regime.
But the fact that Mr Kim felt it necessary to visit China before his summits with the US and South Korea underscores that China is actually a vital player. How could it not be, given that 90 per cent of North Korean trade flows through China?
TWO COMPLICATIONS
The impending Korean negotiations are further complicated by two additional factors. First, the emerging trade war between the US and China. And second the appointment of the ultra-hawkish John Bolton as Mr Trump’s new national security adviser.
Beijing will be hoping that the chance that China could help “deliver” North Korea may persuade the Trump administration to ease off on trade sanctions. But Mr Trump’s trade team will be reluctant to back off now.
As for Mr Bolton, he is a noted hawk on North Korea and has openly advocated a military option if denuclearisation cannot be achieved by peaceful means. His appointment may increase the pressure on the Kim regime.
It may also make it more likely that the US adopts a very sceptical attitude to any concessions offered by the North Koreans.
On the other hand, Mr Trump is known to yearn for a “deal of the century” that he can brandish as proof of his presidential prowess. He will not want Mr Bolton to get in the way.