I try to avoid the political drama mostly because it doesnt interest me much, but every once and a while I get pulled in and just have to say something because it crosses over with the economic articles I write. Today I am doing so because of the Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum that have been causing a stir in the news recently and I wanted to give my opinion on them. Overall from the title you can guess I think they are just flat out bad economics and I want to explain why. This has nothing to do with my political beliefs because I would have called out any president who did something like this.
First I want to dispel the idea that trade wars are good because they arent, there are only losers when they occur and they are the people. Raising tariffs on another country will cause them to retaliate and raise taxes on the goods we export which end up hurting many more people than intended. Even if they dont retaliate immediately there is good evidence that on a long term basis we negotiate less favorable deals in the future. The government needs to keep the market as free which means staying out of it most times, that is when the people and the countries prosper the most.
The problem with Trump is he continues to try and support small industries that need to die because they are outdated. America had its time as a manufacturing country and we've moved past that, and letting developing countries do the manufacturing while we became specialized has made up incredibly wealthy. I criticized Obama for the same practice when he bailed out GM because the market is ultimately the decider on what industries our country should support. If an industry can not survive it will shrink until its profitable or it disappears which is normal. We dont want to become a country that competes in manufacturing with China because they can do it 100x cheaper, it just doesnt make sense.
These fringe industries like steel and coal that Trump continues to protect are industries that are better left to other parts of the world, not a specialized country like us. Look at a country like Japan or Taiwan which grew to immense power during the 80s from manufacturing, but now struggle to grow their economies because they cant move past it. Japan alone has been in a recession for close to 30 years, is that really what you want? Not to mention the rise in these prices might help out a small industry but the ripple effects hurt every other type of industry and all products that use steel and aluminum. The cost of your goods are going to go higher than any benefit the tariffs might have had. The whole situation is a net loss for us.
Theres a big problem with Trump right now even if we disregard any of the stupid drama and thats that he is not listening to his advisers. He has access to the best economists and smartest people in the country, but he doesnt take their advice. I dont know if there is a strategy to this , but its not a smart thing to do. America is rich because we innovate and we create new industries, not because we cater to old ones. If we want to stay competitive we innovate or we die, those are our only two options.
-Calaber24p