"In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate", announced Donald Trump, president of the United States, on June 1, 2009.
The announcement of the American president had not created the surprise. At the G7 and G20 summits, Trump had already warned of his indecision to engage in the greenhouse gas reduction process. His election campaign had made it possible to discover his skepticism about the need to agree on the issue of climate change and as soon as he took office, all the promises aimed at breaking with the actions of the Democrat Barack Obama had been held by the business man. If the American position had been foreseen, it still has stirred up the policies of this world but also companies. It is indeed the first time in history that a state reverts a previously signed climatic agreement by a predecessor of another political regime. The announcement thus made the effect of a cleaver highlighting the absence of an enforceable formula for an agreement which was nevertheless approved by 194 countries.
The beginnings
Already, at the G7 Angela Merkel had marked her discontent towards a Trump that seemed well evasive on COP 21. The demonstration of powerreport that had arisen during tussle's welcome had suggested that Trump, whose first outing as President of the United States, was very much in front of Germany, whose chancellor was at the top of the foreign powers. The vigorous and long handshake between the new French president and the new American president, in front of the cameras of the whole world, foreshadowed a little future of the agreement that was signed in Paris. It is in this way that Donald Trump justifies his withdrawal from COP 21: "I was elected to represent the people of Pittsburgh, not of Paris." Emmanuel Macron answered in a video on his Twitter account that America although having turned his back on the planet, France was ready to welcome all the goodwill to work in the climate change sector. It is given between Europe and the United States.
To any bad thing something positive comes by
China, which is constantly shunned for its anti-competitive practices by Europeans, could see the opportunity to draw its pin from the game. In the renewable market, it could well take the place of leader, strong in its commitment to the latest UN agreement, and its competitiveness in the face of American products that would have even more difficulty in positioning themselves. Another way to punish America would be to offer exemptions from customs fees and tax cuts to all European companies encouraging renewable energies. The aftermath of Trump's decision that America would be isolated from the world might not be just a turn of phrase but an indirect warning of what the economic power could trigger.
The lack of American consensus on the American decision
"I am appalled that the president quoted my city to justify his unacceptable decision like most pittsburghers." "I was one of the American mayors who went to Paris to fight for the chords," writes William Peduto mayor of Pittsburgh on his Twitter account. Like other mayors or governors from New York to California, many political personalities are committed to pursuing their efforts in reducing greenhouse gases. The business world is not the same as Exxon, an oil giant who was one of the first to denounce the decision of the Republican president. A letter of petition was signed for this purpose by major industrialists and group of companies (Google, DuPont ...) to mark their disapproval. Beyond the theatrical effect of which Trump had announced his decision to withdraw, the effects are not only on the planet's disfavor. It touches first of all the world of the American company.
What is going to happen?
Economically, American companies had already initiated a change of course towards a reduction of greenhouse gases. Those belonging to oil industries have invested a lot out of fossils, convinced that they should start sustainable bait before the bell tolls. And if Donald Trump argues that he is in his decision to save some 2.5 million jobs by 2025, he does not guarantee that he does not create so much by banning companies that work in the ENR sector. And it is diminishing in their ability to compete in an Asian and European market where ENR becomes an increasingly safe value.
What are the consequences of the withdrawal?
From a climatic point of view, the withdrawal of the United States to COP 21 can be fraught with consequences. First because it is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Behind China. A projection of the team of researchers climate Interactive relayed by the press agencies indicates that if the United States comes out of the Paris agreement, a greenhouse gas emission increase of 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year should be expected by 2030. While COP 21 encouraged the signatory countries to reduce their emissions to below the 2 ° C bar of global warming, the withdrawal of the United States distorted the targets and forced other countries to agree on new data. But already, China has issued the intention as well as Europe to reduce their respective emissions in a more drastic way than expected. In fact, each country is negotiating a reduction in its emission, and it was planned that the United States should reduce their emissions by 26-28% by 2025 compared to 2005. Negotiated under the administration of Barack Obama, Trump had pointed out during his campaign to the presidency that the negotiations were detrimental to the coal industry but above all, that they were made for the benefit of China and India.
Can the United States really get out of the Paris agreement?
The COP and various climate agreements are under the aegis of the United Nations. Since 1991, the organization has managed the agreements. As such, it is worth pointing out that the United States has never ratified the Kyoto Agreement. In order to exit the Paris agreement, according to article 28 of the Agreement, it is necessary to wait three years after its entry into force on 4 November 2016. This adds up to a year of notice from the decision to retire which brings us to the next American presidential election. Another option available to Donald Trump is to get out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which would allow for a one-year outing.
The policy of the American president who isolates diplomatically but also economically the country of Uncle Sam reflects a new mindset in the chessboard of the world forces. Uncomplexed, populist, Trump seems to have a very personal and little-shared vision of the fight against climate change. It thus opens the voice to discontent but also to the risk of being sued for its withdrawal decision. The concept, referred to by the experts, of climate refugees is not new and could induce victims to return legally against the main polluter of the planet.