Tensions Escalate
Chinese President Xi gave a speech at a military parade held in China's inner Mongolia region dressed in military uniform. The uniform and where the military parade was being held is very symbolic. We all know about the warfare bought on by the Mongolians in ancient time; but we also know the empire and people that persevered and flourished aka the Chinese. This is a show of force and power to the world especially the state actors in the region. I also believe it is a direct message to the Trump administration because Trump did not hold enough power to stage a military parade or show of force like he wanted during his inauguration. There is a lot of subliminal messaging being communicated. The parade also is a reassuring and preparation of the Chinese people of the Chinese “commitment to world peace” but the possibility and preparedness for war in all arenas (cyber, economic, ideology, traditional) in the face of escalating tension on its borders. China is facing opposition and threats to its growing regional and global economic power. China continues to exert its military force in the region to solidify its position as a global power militarily and economically. A passive-agressive but precise position. With the recent elections held across the world we have seen the resurgence of nationalistic “strongmen”. This region has a history of inter-ethnic warfare and shifting allies. Here is a brief analysis of the current situation in this region from my perspective and opinion.
South China Sea
Roughly 5 trillion dollars of trade flows through these waters. The waters are also rumored to be rich in oil, natural gas, and mineral deposits There are ongoing maritime claims/disputes amongst several sovereign states. The Chinese have a large and growing share of global economic trade and commerce; combined with increasing military might have laid the largest claim. To support their claim, they are building artificial islands and installing military infrastructure on some of the islands as well. This is a strategic location due to the trade and resource availability. Chinese actions in this region are very deliberate and calculated and are geared to expanding their empire. They seek to effectively legitimize claim and force nations to act out right aggressively to put a stop to the building. Or put simply, a declaration of war. Some state actors want the waters to remain international and do not agree with the Chinese claims and have performed “freedom of navigation” operations and will continue to do so until this geo-political situation is resolved.
Taiwan
Potential conflict on the Taiwan straight is a possibility. The Chinese have continued to modernize their military capabilities and have deployed missiles in this area previously . Taiwan has been purchasing weapons and arms from the U.S. This was a move the Chinese government condemns due to its One China policy/ideology. Despite the arms purchases there is a glaring gap between the military capabilities of both countries in China’s favor. The growing economic ties of China and Taiwan have grown over the last number of years with heavy investment on both sides. However, Taiwan has recently sought to diversify its economic partners in lieu of dependance on China. I think Taiwan is going to pay a pivotal role as this geo-political situation develops. Its strategic aim may be similar to One China but with their government/party in power (that is my pure speculation. But would be the most logical strategic objective)
Japan
Very familiar with empire expansion in this region the Japanese are growing alarmed at Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and its growing economic and military power. Both powers are vying to protect, compete and expand economic interest and influence in the region. The Japanese have also began to expand military spending and modernize its armed forces. The Japanese have had strained relations for a number of years as talks have stalled numerous times. But as of late the U.S aligned Japanese and Korean governments have found common ground concerning North Korea. The most recent missile test from North Korea supposedly was in Japanese territorial/trade waters. The desire to see regime change in North Korea by the Japan would be ideal.
Korean Peninsula
Increased tensions and escalations on the Korean Peninsula are very troublesome at the moment. The South Korean and North Korean cold war continues its decent into a hot war. North Korea continues to lob missiles in the ocean. I believe mostly as a deterrent to let the South Koreans and its allies as well as the Chinese that their regime is capable of not only defending itself but causing massive damage. The South Koreans continue to align their interest to that of the U.S in regard to this conflict in support of missile defense systems. South Korean and Chinese relations seem active but strained at best probably due to misaligned interest regarding the missile defense system. The Chinese are under growing pressure from the U.S trump administration to get “North Korea in line” aka no nukes and support possible regime change. The Chinese are probably weary of a missile “defense” system pointed in the direction of its borders. Chinas best interest in this would probably be a Chinese controlled N. Korea without nukes and no missile defense system deployed in the south. This ideal outcome would help it secure its hegemony in the region and bolster its empires power globally.
Asian-Pacific Powers
The other Asian-Pacific Powers are acting in their states best interest (like most states do) and aligning their respective interest accordingly. Most will most likely try to remain neutral if a conflict breaks out between world powers (we hope not). However, due to the nature and deadliness a conflict in this region would bring; state actors will probably align themselves in manners that allow continued state sovereignty combined with self preservation. Interesting countries to watch as this develops will be Vietnam and the Philippines.
Border Dispute in the Himalayas
Chinese are having a border dispute with India regarding territory that three states share (China, Bhutan, and India). The Chinese were caught by Bhutan trying to extend a road and in turn the Indians responded by sending troops and equipment to the border to halt construction. The Chinese denounced the move and now both sides are at a standoff with armies facing each other in their respective territories. Both leaders are posturing militarily and seeking to establish there nations as world leaders and powers. Both, China and India are nuclear armed states and the devastation caused by a military conflict would be unprecedented. Hopefully this standoff ends in negotiations.
This entire region is a hotbed for conflict at this point in time and involves nuclear armed state actors. Escalation of tensions must be cooled. War must be avoided at all cost . The preservation of human life should be the number one priority. A conflict in this scale would have repercussions for all of humanity. I was inspired by Game of Thrones tonight to make this post. Each of these topics go much deeper than I could possibly provide analysis for in one post. I hope you enjoyed.
Does anybody from these regions of the world have any insights on the geo-political situation in this region? Please up vote, follow and share your comments. Thank you