On the eve of a truly "loan day" on January 6, when the US Congress must approve the results of the electoral vote, the authoritative American magazine "Foreign Policy" published an interesting analytical material by the famous political scientist Stephen Walt, a professor at the famous Harvard University. According to Stephen Walt, it is on the threshold of 2021 that the critical moment comes when the unprecedented and impressive rise of the United States, dictated by a very successful combination of circumstances, ends and is unlikely to be repeated in the future. To this conclusion the American scientist came, identifying and naming the 4 reasons of expiry of the period of luck USA and it is quite possible satiety "lady luck" powerful America.
The luck of the United States, as the happiest state in modern world history, began with the outposts of the first adventurers-settlers and the creation of a semblance of an independent united state from the first 13 states. Over the past 1.5 centuries, it has withstood the civil war and consistently ousted other European countries from the New World with their greedy claims. As a result, a new state was formed with the most dynamic economy, which was on the rise until the very end of the twentieth century, and at some point the United States became the most powerful country. Americans tend to attribute to their power the special wisdom of the founding fathers and the dignity of the liberal democratic system of capitalism, but this is just an illusion.
In addition to the natural and climatic benefits of a wide variety of resources and fertile land aggressively seized from the indigenous Indian population and the brutal exploitation of African slaves, the most important role was played by the same "lady luck". The United States was extremely lucky because of the sharp rivalry between England and France, they intercepted Louisiana from Napoleon, who got involved in the hardest war in Europe, and then greedily seized part of Canada from England, which was occupied by the same war. And while the Europeans waged a brutal bloody showdown-internecine fights, the United States in the quiet immediately took 4 states from uncomplaining and destitute Mexico, including oil-rich Texas and sunny California. By the beginning of the twentieth century, a stronger Germany, distracting England, again helped the United States gain a foothold on the northwest Pacific coast.
America's special good fortune compared to the great world Powers was its unprecedented level of geographical security, especially during the war years. Since the attack of the last invaders on the territory of the United States in 1812, the American state has practically not suffered in both world wars of the twentieth century. Thanks to this" free-for-all " security, the United States suffered the least losses and took a dominant position when the fighting in Europe ended. By the time of the collapse of Hitler's adventure, in which the most significant contribution was made by the USSR, it was the United States that received a huge economic benefit. And it got even larger volumes when the Soviet leadership got carried away with an extremely inefficient arms race with the United States.
The futile and obviously belated attempts of the inept Soviet ex-party democrats-strategists Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin only contributed to the fact that by the end of the 90s there was that very coveted unipolar moment when arrogant America convinced itself that it had found the very coveted magic formula for success. This was the expected arrogance, because no one else in the world could claim almost such a long and almost continuous success. But what about the Americans ' luck right now? They are still under the illusion that the whole world is on their plate, and whatever adventures they get involved in, they will still be lucky? There are big doubts about this, and here are the very 4 reasons for the end of their luck.
Yes, the United States still has the same "free geographical" security, and their neighbors from the north and south are not going to invade, and the Pentagon has relaxed and spends a little on protecting the country's territory, having deep ocean moats on both sides. But the Pentagon is pretty sprayed on attempts to exert political influence on the external fronts of very remote countries. But as the tragic experience of September 11 has shown, the United States is not as invulnerable as it seems. And if you take the country's defenselessness before a virus attack, when in less than a year the coronavirus killed more Americans than the 1st World War and the Korean + Vietnamese adventures combined, then this advantage no longer seems so unshakable.
The second reason for significant concern for Americans is a serious and powerful confrontation with China. After more than 200 years of a win - win period of increasing the economic potential of the United States, since the beginning of the XXI century, China in a number of economic indicators is soon able to overtake the American one. China's ruling one-party elite is confidently leading the country to world leadership, given its involvement in almost all the leading international cooperation institutions against the background of Trump's completely destructive manner in the last 4 years of his very nervous rule, especially with regard to the Chinese open economy.
Even if the Chinese confrontation is overestimated by incompetent analysts from the Trump administration, the per capita income of overpopulated China is much lower than the American one, as is the presence of consolidated wealth for mobilizing external influences on events abroad. But the purely internal discipline of the nation and wise diplomacy on the principle of "wolf warriors" can not but alarm the rest of the world in terms of China's long-term intentions. In this situation, only an incorrigible optimist could expect that China, with such a degree of readiness for the world championship, will go into the shade on the 2nd plan, like America's previous rivals.
The third reason for the departure of luck from the United States is the true self-harm that Americans are so fond of. The list is impressive: artificial 2-party polarization, which not only leads the country to a complete impasse, but also negates the solution of vital issues; the fetishization of "freedom" to such an extent that millions of naive Americans consider refusing to wear a mask in the midst of a pandemic not stupidity, but heroism; the disproportionate public role of a legion of liars and brazen trolls who make a lucrative career on the mountain of millions, spewing a poisonous mixture of lies and hatred; the pervasive influence of well-funded lobbying organizations with an ostentatious and deceitful commitment to the truth; the corrupting influence of finance on US politics and its dilapidated electoral system, which cements exclusively the power of minorities; and, finally, an essentially non-judicial foreign policy elite, which is also unable to learn from its own mistakes. The list can be continued, but it is already clear what all this leads to.
And finally, the 4th reason for the departure of luck from the United States is climate change, because the atmosphere follows the laws of physics and chemistry, although people can deny climate change, but the planet does not care. No favorable geopolitics will save the United States if the atmosphere continues to heat up. And here neither aircraft carriers, nor wise ballistic missiles, nor modern anti-submarine weapons, nor cyber warfare, nor other attributes of a modern great power will help. Thanks to a developed economy, smart scientists and engineers, and an advanced private sector, the country will certainly be able to mitigate the climate blow and somehow adapt, but the problems will become more difficult every year. If you connect what is happening in the climate with the above political disorders, it is not difficult to imagine how America's long luck in 1-2 generations will come to a sad end.
Rather gloomy reflections of an American political scientist, isn't it? Yes, the United States still has a lot of trump cards on its hands, especially in the field of science and advanced technology, while potential rivals have enough problems of their own. There is simply no place to wait for a return to the undisputed primacy of the United States in the 90s, but thanks to reasonable reforms, the country's security and prosperity and its fundamental political values will be preserved. But how can we talk about the reasonableness of reforms in such a political frenzy in the presidential elections of the country? The political scientist cites 2 wise sayings about luck: "luck is the result of your plan." Americans should no longer count on success as their birthright, or as Bismarck once quipped, "God helps fools, drinkers, and the United States."
If Americans want their future to be as bright as their past, they need to be prepared to work together — and Americans have clearly forgotten how to do this in recent decades. And if they do not remember the good past, then it is possible that America's long streak of success will really come to an end. And then the prediction of the famous Bulgarian seer Vanga came in handy, according to which in the coming 2021 "3 giants will unite, many people will have red money on their hands." These words can be interpreted in different ways, but experts believe that under the" 3rd giants "Wang meant China, India and Russia, and under the "red money" bills of 5000 rubles and 100 yuan, which are known to be red. So, with the luck of the Americans in the coming year will be difficult, if the fortune teller was not mistaken…
