Perhaps one of the largest stories in the world to day is that of the "Turkish Question", will Turkey choose to continue towards European Union Ascension, cooperation with NATO and the United States, and overall westernization, or will Turkey under Erdogan balk at such an option, and be the potential first real power to turn their backs away from the Europeans and towards their traditional enemies - Russia and Iran?
To address this issue, you need to have some background.
First and foremost is the question of Turkey itself is doing. The most important man in the entire country is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To understand Turkey's recent trajectory, you need to understand the man and what he has done to the country. First climbing to major power in 2003 as Prime Minister and most recently elected to the Presidency in 2014, Erdogan has been in the highest level of the political decision making process of the country for well over a decade at this point. Additionally as the head of the AKP - Turkey's more conservative oriented party - Erdogan has been criticized as being undemocratic, antisecular, and perhaps most worryingly, dictatorial.
That is about the background you need for Erdogan himself.
Turkey's story has been turning into a tragedy for quite some time. Far from the secular, westernized democracy which Ataturk had originally strived to create, the ultimate legal turning point for the country arguably occurred in the Turkish Presidential Referendum of 2017. This referendum, panned by both the OSCE and the PACE (for the uninitiated - this means essentially by Europe as a whole) as being marred by multiple allegations of deliberate state suppression of opposition voters through such means as; allowing German-residented "yes" voting Turks to vote multiple times, deliberate physcial denial of voting, and even arrest of "no" protestors. The referendum, which was criticized for its major blurring of lines in the separation of powers between the branches of government and it's seemingly overbearing power granted to the President, passed 51-48%.
I hope that this brief, shallow review of the state of Turkey can at least explain to the casual reader why what is going on is even possible - considering that not even a decade ago Turkey seemed to be successfully suing for European Union ascension. However, the "real" geopolitical consequences of a Turkish turn away from the West stem much deeper than simple ideological change.
Enter, into the mix, Russia and Iran.
Both Russia and Iran have the political drive to become powers, either globally (Russia) or regionally (Iran). While not exactly historical allies, Western sanctions against both Russia and Iran, along with a growing global disdain for the way in which nonwestern countries perceive Western countries - the US' constant military intervention abroad, unfair trade policies, and recently the seeming ineptitude of Western democracies to elect strong leaders - have recently drawn the countries together and could prove to be the harbinger of a large, geopolitical shift in the way the world works.
The most well discussed "fears" in the general media body seem to be that of Turkish acquisition of the Russia S-400 and Su-57. These would be important, but they would be more important for Russia than they would for Turkey. The Turkish military is just fine; although it may lose out on the F-35 program due to America's fears that dual ownership of the F-35 and the S-400 would give the Russians access to advanced Western stealth technology, Turkey's purchase of the S-400 would all but guarantee Turkish aeronautical autonomy. While the Russian arms industry certainly took a hit after the 1991 collapse, they have always had a massive advantage over the competition in their anti-air capabilities. Even with the denial of the F-35 program, it may be more of an advantageous offer for the Turkish leadership to pursue both the S-400 and the Su-57 than to continually plead for the much, much more expensive F-35. It is also worth noting here that the F-35's expense would drastically limit the amount of units which Turkey can procure, whereas the much cheaper Russian equipment would still be servicable against likely Turkish threats (Arab air forces being the most likely contenders for this) and could be much more numerous.
However, even with the ideological shift away from the West, I would argue that the real benefit for the Turkish "shift" would go to Russia and Iran themselves - not to Turkey.
To demonstrate, you need to look at what Turkey has, because a nation is only as strong as the people and items who make it up.
- A nominal GDP of $909Bn USD, PPP GDP of $2.32Tn
- A population of 80 million people, with a growth rate of 1.2% annually
- A sizeable ethnic population inhabiting many European states
- Significant sway over the Caucauses, land borders with Armenia, Syria, Georgia, and Iraq
- Istanbul
When you take this into account, you need to know that the Russians are currently trying their hardest to recruit nations into their Eurasian Economic Union. The Eurasian Economic Union, which many believed would more than likely flop during its tumultuous creation, culminating in it's formal founding in 2015, is an economic Union headed by Russia which generally is aimed at unifying the old Soviet states into a single economic space and beyond. As westward expansion of the Union stalled after the Ukrainian civil war begun, Russia has begun repositioning its energy into expansion of it's Eastern and Central Asian capabilities. With a 3 year agreement struck with Iran earlier in 2018, it is not unlikely that we will see full fledged Iranian ascension into the organization after the duration of that agreement.
Assuming Iranian integration, Turkey would bring to the Union the second largest economy behind Russia, and the second largest population. Wholly replacing what many thought would be required - Ukraine - Turkish ascension would additionally put Russian, Turkish, and Iranian interests in the Caucuses into full alignment. In this scenario there is almost a guarantee that Azerbaijan would end up joining into the Union and afterwards would give Moscow a direct, Single Market between Istanbul, Ankara, Tehran, Moscow, Vladivostok, and Chabahar.
A single economic space - an economy if you will - comprising the large bulk of the Eurasian continent. Without the United State, without Europe. The world's largest nuclear arsenal once again in the hands of a true and competentent, far reaching economic sphere.
I might be more of a doomsayer in this situation, but would it stop at Turkey and Azerbaijan? Georgia would turn from a bridge to the west into a island surrounded, how long would it take for them to jump ship? Syria, Iraq, the rest of Central Asia; slighted by the Indian pullout of the Su-57 program, Russia and Iran together could try to sway Pakistan towards the organization, and away from their shaky American relationship. With stronger Russian and Turkish backing, not to mention the West's disgust with how it's portrayed, Iran's proxy war in Yemen could tilt the country towards the EAEU and become yet another thorn to the Saudi regime the United States has chosen to prop up.
I know that this sounds like Domino theory, but this is not based on ideology. This is based on cash, and shrewed men, many if not all of whom are evil by our definitions, turning a large chunk of the world away from cooperation and towards ostracision of Liberal and Democratic institutions.
Oh brave new world indeed.