Donald Trump has again extended the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, after series of threats to undo the Iran nuclear deal, by waiving Iran's economic sanctions. In a statement on January 12, he said this was the last chance to "either fix the deal's disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw".
Donald Trump further relayed four conditions for a supplemental agreement to the JCPOA and asked Congress to pass them into law. Those conditions include; Iran's allowance of immediate inspection of all sites requested by international inspectors, Iran not possessing a nuclear weapon, no expiration date for these provisions and lastly that Iran's long-range missile and nuclear weapons program are inseparable.
In any case of undermining the supplemental agreement either by Congress or European, the US President has in a shocking attitude threatened to unilaterally terminate the deal.
The fact is that the JCPOA stipulate the ultimate standards of nuclear inspection and transparency while providing empirical assurances that Iran's nuclear program is not veered towards building nuclear weapons. These measures are in line with the first two of Trump's conditions and exceed any agreement by a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
Moreover, after the deal's expiration, Iran returns to supervision under the International Atomic Energy Agency's "Additional Protocols" safeguards since major JCPOA restrictions are temporary with expiration ranging from 8 to 25 years. More than 90 nuclear scientists have attested to the applicability of these safeguards as one of the strongest ever implemented by the IAEA.
Donald Trump's conditions, thus, not only aim at making JCPOA major restrictions permanent, but also connect Iran's nuclear program to its missile program and in defiance of other world powers violate the NPT. As a matter of fact, under the treaty, Iran's sovereign right to uranium enrichment and other peaceful nuclear technologies is protected with no limitation on states developing conventional weapons.
Since there are no international treaties banning conventional missiles, Iran's sovereign right to possess such (missiles) for its defence is well founded. And President is acting ultra vires in dictating restrictions beyond what is prescribed.
If Trump execute his ultimatum and eventually leaves the JCPOA, the long term effect is that it undermines global attempts to control nuclear proliferation.
Major things to take notice of include that:
In the domestic sphere, from executive organs, like the National Security Council, Pentagon, State Department and Department of Energy, to the Congress contend American unilateral withdrawal with strong emphasis that the deal deter Iran's nuclear weapons and its absence will isolate America internationally
Scrapping the JCPOA will increase global distrust for America and make it difficult to negotiate a deal curtailing North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Future US military campaigns against North Korea may be harder if allies hold it accountable for re-igniting Iran nuclear crisis.
JCPOA has a UN Security Council endorsement. According to the UN charter, all members have an obligation to execute Security Council resolutions. Flagrant U.S. violation of UNSC Resolution 2231 will undermine future council resolutions as other member states will consider the consensus driven model to be in disarray.
The IAEA has on several occasions certified Iran's compliance with the deal and warned that U.S. withdrawal will disrupt the agency's abilities to carry on inspection. The JCPOA is a major milestone for the IAEA since it is the most comprehensive non-proliferation treaty in history. It is a new standard and its provisions might have prevented countries like North Korea from building nuclear weapons in the first place.
This decision will also signify a major break in the U.S. alliance system. American allies from the EU to Japan, Canada, Australia and South Korea all oppose American withdrawal from the JCPOA. If this persist, future alliance on issues like Russia's annexation of Crimea will be difficult, if not impossible.
These factors have influenced Trump's decision to waive Iran's sanctions. These are strong factors that will cease to exist on expiration of Trump's deadline.
Trump's resolve to sabotage the Iran deal is an extension of his agenda to destroy Obama's legacy. But a better approach for him is to employ this model in bolstering multilateral diplomacy and resolving problems in Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. At this point in time, the world needs a more stable and rational centre, and no other than America is ripe for the role.
If Trump's watchword of "America first" continues to violate rules and will of the international community, it might result in global jettison of American interest and influence. But there still enough room for Trump to facilitate the JCPOA and imprint his legacy.