If, as numerous election analysts now expect, the GOP takes both houses of Congress in next week's elections, many will conclude that the Republicans haven't paid a penalty for January 6, Trump's many reprehensible actions, and the awful candidates they nominated in several key Senate races. But unless the election is truly a GOP landslide, that perception will be wrong.
Under normal circumstances, the "out" party is expected to do well in a midterm election. Add in the highest inflation in 40 years, high gas prices, and a crime wave, and the normal expectation would be a big GOP landslide, at least comparable to 1994 or 2010. Instead, the 538 website gives the Republicans only a 51% chance of retaking the Senate (which requires them to post a net gain of just 1 seat!) and 83% to take the House (which would require netting just 5 seats). These odds will likely change a bit over the next week. But they are very poor by historical standards, given all of the GOP's structural advantages. They reflect the penalty the party is paying for Trump, January 6, and the nomination of the rogues' gallery of Dr. Oz, Herschel Walker, and Blake Masters. I wouldn't hire this crew to manage a garbage dump! In this rare instance, my views seem to mirror those of many swing voters. The Dobbs ruling and resulting extreme GOP restrictions on abortion are also helping Dems at the margin.
Finally, I would add that the Democrats have done very little to try to capture swing voters by moving to the center or otherwise trying to reassure the considerable constituency of people who dislike the Trump-era GOP, but vote for them because they hate and/or fear the Democrats.
In sum, barring a genuine landslide of the sort they would "normally" achieve under these conditions, the Republicans ARE paying a penalty for their awfulness. It's reasonable to argue the penalty should be bigger. But not reasonable to deny its existence.