The Indonesia Development Monitoring (IDM) Survey Institute released the results of a survey conducted in 400 districts / cities in 33 provinces of Indonesia, from 28 April to 18 May 2018.
The result, Chairman of Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto more selected by respondents than Capres Petahana Joko Widodo (Jokowi).
IDM Executive Director Bin Firman Tresnadi said Prabowo got 50.1 percent while Joko Widodo was 29.8 percent and 20.1 percent of respondents did not respond.
"In an open question, if the 2019 election is held today, who of these two names will be elected president. The result is Prabowo Subianto, "said Bin Firman Tresnadi in Menteng.
Furthermore, Firman explained that the same result was obtained by Prabowo when his side gave closed question to the respondents. In this case, Prabowo's elektabilitas is higher than the previous case.
"Respondents chose Prabowo Subianto as much as 52.9 percent, Joko Widodo 31.2 percent, and did not vote 15.9 percent," he explained.
Bin Firman explains, Prabowo has a capital acquisition vote in the 2014 Presidential Election of 62,576,444, and Prabowo is considered capable of maintaining its constituents.
"Prabowo's consistency becomes an opposition
against Jokowi-JK's government and his steadfastness of programs
the struggle during the campaign period became the main capital of Prabowo, "he said.
With an estimated number of DPTs increased by 2019, from 133,574,277 to 196,545,636 people will also be an additional sound field for Prabowo.
"Moreover Prabowo's attitude is judged by the respondents to have the soul of statesmanship showed in reducing the tension in the case of Ahok, or the action of 212 reap a lot of sympathetic," he added.
The emergence of the presidential tagar and the strengthening of identity politics are increasingly profitable for Prabowo.
Meanwhile, Jokowi's elektabilitas is eroded by some negative issues circulating among the people.
For example, poor economic problems (declining purchasing power), and the difficulty of employment, and the high prices of basic commodities.
In addition, some of its policies are also not favored by the people, such as the revocation of TDL subsidies and premium scarcity, improper food import policies, increasing foreign debt, the rise of foreign workers, and the direction of its government is considered too oriented to the state of China
The survey was conducted to 2,450 respondents adjusted to the number of DPT Election 2014. The survey was conducted by multistage random sampling method in 400 districts / cities in 33 provinces in Indonesia with Margin of Error +/- 1.98 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.