Tony Rosyid
Political Observer and Observer of the Nation
Central Java is a bull cage. In 2014, PDIP won 31% of DPRD seats. However, the magnitude of PDIP votes does not seem to last long. Elements of PDIP elelktabilitas down. Currently only 21.7% (SMRC) The decline of PDIP votes are two possibilities; * first, * Jokowi effect. People's disappointment with the bad attitude and political communication of Jokowi so far, especially with his political opponents. Besides Jokowi political promises a lot of neglected factor. This symptom affected the party bearers of this palace.
Secondly, because of Megawati's statements that are often opposed to Muslims. Viral in medsos that PDIP does not need the voice of Muslims. If this statement is true, it will be a form of "political arrogance" which is increasingly potential to undermine the electivity of the PDIP.
The opposition of the Islamic group "Origin of Jokowi" or ABJ to PDIP in various regions, ranging from Madura, Aceh, Riau, and North Sumatra has the potential to make maps of political power shift. Guerrilla GNPF Ulama and Alumni 212 which has been opposed to PDIP has the opportunity to erode PDIP votes in all regions, including Central Java.
Until today, PDIP has not determined the candidate for governor in Central Java. Ganjar Pranowo, incumbent, has not yet determined his fate. The e-KTP case that twists Ganjar Pranowo makes PDIP hesitant and nervous about re-nominating it. Moreover, Ganjar elektabilitas only 46.1%. Elektabilitas below 50% for incumbent including prone. Meanwhile, other PDI-P cadres and figures have not been as strong as Ganjar. Budi Waseso? The name is popular, but elektabilitasnya only 12%.
On the other hand, Gerindra, PKS and PAN coalitions have declared Sudirman Said. It is said that the former minister of ESDM will be paired with Madjid Kamil, the son of Kiyai Maimoen Zubair, the most influential elder cleric in Central Java.
If this Sudirman Said-Madjid Kamil duet happens, it is expected to be the strongest and sexiest couple. The reason, these two figures will unite all the forces of Islam. Sudirman Said represents an urban Islam with PKS and PAN being the bearer. While Madjid Kamil, chairman of the Rembang Parliament is considered a representation of traditional Islam NU. Right and center Islam will gather in this coalition. Added to the strength of nationalist groups from Gerindra who are on the rise in his elasticity.
In addition, the influence of Mbah Maimoen, the nickname of Al-Anwar pesantren pesantren Sarang is very strong in Central Java, especially pantura. The alumni who are members of an organization called FASS (Forum Alumni Santri Sarang) are scattered in almost all areas of Central Java. Starting from Rembang, Pati, Kudus, Jepara, Demak, Semarang, Kendal, Batang, Pekalongan, Pemalang, Tegal and Brebes there are many pesantren who are raised by Sarang graduates. In the southern region there are Banjarnegara, Kebumen and Purworejo. In the East there are Blora and Purwodadi. Many Sarang alumni have become scholars and caretakers of pesantren. This certainly gives a significant influence.
The santri tradition is "sami" na wa atha'na "at kiyai Without any instructions from Kiyai Maimoen any scholars of the pesantren alumni of Sarang will work as a winning team, the santri will make this momentum to repay the" educational services "provided by kiyai "Blessing," that's about what will be his magic conciousness. "The santri Kiyai Maimoen will become" militant volunteers "because of the santri bonding factor to the kiyai.is the luck of Sudirman Said with the presence of KH Maimoen Zubair's son as a companion.
In Central Java, there are hardly any legislative candidates and regional heads who fail when they get Kiyai Maimoen's blessing. Muhlisin is one such example. The Saudi alumni has recently returned from saudi, with social limitations and minimal political experience, successfully becoming a member of the House after the blessing of Mbah maimon. Taj Yasin, the son of a very young Kiyai Maimoen, succeeded to the DPRD 1 Central Java with a vote exceeding the quota. In addition, Marzuki, twice succeeded in becoming a regent of Jepara with a network of pesantren Sarang.
In addition to Sarang's students, alumni of Lirboyo, Ploso and Lasem pesantren have also expressed their support to Gus Kamil, Madjid Kamil's close call. The number of alumni Lirboyo, Ploso and Lasem as big as alumni Sarang.
The presence of Kiyai Maimoen's son as a companion Sudirman Said for coalition of PKS, PAN and Gerindra like durian collapsed. The santri machine and the pesantren scholars will work to complement and strengthen the political machinery of PKS and PAN. Two forces rarely occur in the political dynamics of Indonesia. This coalition will also bring together two mass organizations, namely NU and Muhammadiyah.
Where is PPP position? Practically the PPP will support its cadres. Madjid Kamil is the chairman of the Rembang Parliament of PPP. It's just that the "political hostage" that is now befalling the PPP chairman becomes a problem in itself. On the other hand, this situation can also be an opportunity for PPP to get out of the hostage. Therefore, the emergence of Madjid Kamil not from the PPP proposal, but from the movements and insistence of santri pesantren: Sarang, Lirboyo, Ploso and lasem. There is no reason for PPP not to join the opposition coalition. Unless the PPP wants to be abandoned by its constituents in Central Java.
The history of PPP supporting Ahok in Pilgub DKI has provided an important lesson for the party bearing this Ka'ba. PPP does not want to get worse. Thus, the PPP's political choice must be smarter and brilliant, so as not to flee its supporters. Pilgub Central Java could be a "moment of repentance" for PPP to recall its constituents.
The couple Sudirman Said and Madjid Kamil will be the toughest challengers to the coalition that PDIP and the ruling coalition parties will form. If this happens, there will be a duel between Islamist groups and the nationalist group._: This duel will repeat the old election between Masyumi and PNI. Who is the winner? We wait.
The unification of these two right and moderate Islamic powers will certainly not be allowed to happen. The Islamist vs. nationalist issue will make sad, especially for the ruler. There will be interested parties to fix it. Who are they?
Central Java is the third largest vote granary after Jabar and East Java. The influence will be quite significant for 2019. This is where presidential candidates will pit against their strategy.
The Islamist vs nationalist duet, if it happens, will be a sexy and fierce political battle. This pattern-based battle will most likely continue in the 2019 presidential election.
