So everyone rushing around in excitement now the PM has 'asked' the Queen to prorogue Parliament (which she has done). Several points.
- I think this was planned for as soon as BoJo became PM, and became inevitable once certain things became clear over the last couple of weeks. It's a very high risk move, but fits in with other aspects of the government's strategy and behaviour.
- This isn't a complete suppression of debate or of chances to stop Brexit, so it's not a 'screw you' step as some have said. That said, it is also not your normal inter session prorogation being longer than usual and is timed to bring several things to a head while making it impossible for the opposition to do various things.
- There is a short period between Parliament resuming and the start of the prorogation, and a couple of weeks between the end of the prorogation and the Brexit deadline. What the prorogation is timed (and I think designed) to do is to stop any prospect of the opposition getting control of the timetable and using that to put through short bill to stop a no deal exit (there's still an outside possibility but very small) or of the formation of a coalition to have a temporary government to arrest the Brexit process so as to have a general election or second referendum. There were signs that there could be a majority emerging in Parliament to do that so this kiboshes that, pretty much.
- However those two periods do allow time for debate and in particular for a motion of no confidence to be put down. The government may be thinking that it will survive that but if so I think they are wrong. Under these circumstances I think a NCV would be carried comfortably. However what this does is allow the government to then put down a motion for a General Election on a people versus parliament and the elites basis. Of course the opposition could block a GE if they want but the Labour Party would look pretty silly if they did, given they've been banging on forever about how they want one.
- I think the outcome of a GE is very uncertain. I wouldn't bet on any particular outcome. A lot will depend on the distribution of votes and electoral pacts.
- This 'courageous' action will force a lot of people to really make clear where they stand. Conservative MPs who oppose a no deal exit will now have no cover - they will have to either go along with that being an option or clearly break with their own party. The Labour Party will be killed electorally if it continues its current fudge - it will have to either come out as a clear Remain Party or have a really hard time electorally.
- The Queen had no choice but to agree to the PM's request. However, if there was a vote in Parliament against a prorogation before the PM asked for one then she would have had grounds for possibly refusing such a request - hence doing it now during the recess. This avoids putting her in an invidious position.