What the heck is Brexit? Is a Hard Brexit or a Soft Brexit more preferable? Or maybe you are a Hard Remainer, a group that the Financial Times reported today to be 22% of the UK’s electorate (sorry bros).* In the coming series of posts I will explore one of the more interesting political developments of our time – Brexit.
Quick Recap
On June 23, 2016, 51.9% of the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU) while 48.1% voted to remain. The voter turnout was a solid 72.2%. Negotiations for a country leaving the EU start once the leader of the departing country triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Theresa May, UK’s Prime Minister, triggered Article 50 on March 29, 2017. Once triggered, Article 50 says a country has 2 years to exit the EU. As such, the UK will be out of the EU by March 29, 2019. In theory. In future posts I will question the likelihood of this date being right, but for now let’s accept it.
You will likely have heard that the UK is going through an election right now. The timing probably seems strange if you aren’t familiar with parliamentary systems (future post). Theresa May’s government has a slim majority in Parliament, and so she has called this election because she is betting that given the current political mood, she can grow her majority. What does this election have to do with Brexit though?
The Brexit negotiations are going to be a vicious fight and everyone is going to have an opinion. There is no way that Theresa May is going to deliver a deal that pleases everyone. Thus, she needs the broader majority in Parliament so that she can afford to tell people in her party to shove it if they challenge her approach to Brexit. Similarly, if the EU pushes her too hard, say on the potential €100 Billion divorce bill (future post), she will be in a position to say she has the mandate to walk away and pursue a Hard Brexit. As a cherry on top for winning, Ms. May will also be PM until 2022! The election is on June 8 and so far it looks like it will be a landslide for Theresa May’s party (Conservatives).*
So that is a basic rundown of where Brexit is today. I’m going to keep the pieces short so that they are easy to digest. Brexit is such a multifaceted topic and so there is a lot to explore. If you have an area of interest let me know and I will try to work it in next. Please upvote or resteem if you found this interesting!
H.
*The rise of the ‘Re-Leavers’ points towards a Conservative landslide, Financial Times