We now have the results from the Swedish elections and there’s some surprises but not as much as some might have wished for, (me included)
Social Democrats: 28.4 %
Left Party: 7.9 %
Green Party: 4.3 %
Moderates: 19.8 %
Centre: 8.6 %
Liberals: 5.5 %
Christian Democrats: 6.4 %
Sweden Democrats: 17.6 %
Surprises from the election are that the Social democrats are still holding on to the 1st place in Swedish politics and even if they’re smaller now than the last election (31%), they still had a good election day because they were polling around 24/25%. Two other surprises were the Christian Democrats and the green party. The Christian Democrats finished on 6.4% which is a really good number for them, they’ve been polling under 4% since the last election but had a great election day. This mainly because they have a really good leader that has been a bit more radical these last couple months. Being a bit more radical made it possible for the Christian Democrats to steal some conservative voters from the moderate party and even bring back voters from the Sweden Democrats.
The green party that has been forming a government with the social democrats for the last 4 years kept their place in the parliament after finishing above the 4% mark which is where the line is drawn for sitting in parliament. They were polling around 3.4% after the first votes were registered but then made a comeback and will stay in parliament for another 4 years. What held them back was their last 4 years in government. The world’s first feminist government have done a good job according to polls and even if their numbers have decreased they managed to retain their seats in the government.
The Sweden Democrats is a disappointment to some people that were expecting them to finish way above the 20% mark, which they didn’t. They finished at 17.6% but that is still a very impressive result. They had 13% in the last election and gained the most out of any party. They will now have more seats in parliament and more influence over the budget that the parliament will vote for in the upcoming weeks. Even if they didn’t double their support as they have done in the past, they gained a lot and if they keep growing they’ll probably be way over 20% in the election 2022.
The Sweden Democrats stand independent in the shape of how a new government is going to be formed and the two traditional blocks are for now remaining the same. It looks like this when it comes to seats in the parliament.
Figuring out who will form the new government is certainly unclear because there’s so much prestige involved, and no party wants to give in on their campaign promises. The social democrats want to form a new government but they won’t have enough support from the left side so if they want to form a government they have to look for support amongst the liberals or the center party. The traditional liberal/conservative block won’t be able to form a government either because they’re not in majority. If the moderates and the Christian Democrats want to form a conservative government they’re going to need the support from the Sweden Democrats, something the Sweden Democrats are willing to do. But there’s one problem to that. If the Sweden Democrats support a conservative government, the liberals and center party won’t.
It boils down to the Sweden Democrats if any of the traditional blocks want to rule the country. The Sweden Democrats have a heavy grip on the majority. They can vote with or against any of the traditional block how they like. If any of the traditional blocks or parties opens up to a dialog with the Sweden Democrats they might get there support in the voting for a new government but nobody has opened up to a discussion so far. If any of them did they could get the support from the Sweden Democrats in a budget and thereby be able to rule for the next four years. That hasn’t happened yet and is not very likely to happen either. The established parties have invested too much time and too much pride in saying stuff like “we will never talk with the Sweden Democrats” and “we will never negotiate with a racist and fascist party” That is unfortunate for them, because they cannot have a majority of the votes as long as they’re rejecting the Sweden Democrats.
So what will happen now is very unclear. The two blocks won’t talk with the Sweden Democrats so there are only two options available. Option 1 is to let the other side win. Give up and vote for the other block, everything to keep the Sweden Democrats away from influence. This is what the parties did after the last election. The conservative block did not vote in the voting about the budget, so the socialist side could get their budget through. They could do that after this election again but there’s a big conflict in that scenario. Will the conservatives let the socialist’s budget through to keep the Sweden Democrats away or will the socialists let the conservative’s budget go through to keep the Sweden Democrats away?
The other option is to form a new set of a coalition government. Parties from both sides could unite in a coalition government to reject any influence from the Sweden democrats. This process wouldn’t be easy because they don’t want to work with each other, but is it worth it to keep the Sweden Democrats away? Conservatives and liberals working together with socialists in a government could end up with horrible reforms that the government can’t stand behind. They don’t agree with each other on taxes, migration, education, health care etc. A coalition government could be a disaster for these parties and their voters will probably be very disappointed if they don’t succeed as expected. Liberal voters would be concerned with higher taxes and socialist voters would be concerned with lower taxes. A coalition government could cause a lot of disappointed voters, just like in Germany where AFD has risen to new heights after their coalition government was formed.
If some parties want to have a discussion with the Sweden Democrats or rather form a coalition government with parties of completely different ideologies is yet to be known. Interesting times ahead of us.